WEBVTT
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(gavel banging)
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Good morning,
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this meeting of the Public
Utility Commission of Texas
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will come to order to
you consider matters
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that have been duly posted
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with the secretary of state of
Texas for August 12th, 2021.
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For the record my name is Peter Lake,
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and with me today are Will McAdams,
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Lori Cobos and our newest Commissioner,
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Jimmy Glotfelty, he
will be joining shortly
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when he returns from
obligations at the Capitol.
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We are here for another
one of our work sessions.
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This time focused on weatherization,
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which is a key mandate and directive
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from the 87th Legislature,
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and obviously was a
key part of the tragedy
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that occurred in February.
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Look forward to hearing
from a range of stakeholders.
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Appreciate everyone who has contributed
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to this conversation.
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And also all the hard work our staff
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has put in both developing a draft,
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draft of the draft proposed rules
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and also going through
stakeholder comments.
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I don't have anything
for items one and three,
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I think we can dive
right into item four,
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our conversation on weatherization.
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I anticipate this will largely
take the bulk of the morning,
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depending on how that goes.
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Let's plan on completing this item,
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going through all these
speakers, hopefully,
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and then breaking for lunch.
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And then we'll hear
from staff after lunch.
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(indistinct)
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Of course we can adjust
timing if that is needed.
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I think first up we've
got Texas Climate 101
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with our state climatologists
and ERCOT meteorologists.
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Morning.
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Floor is yours.
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All right.
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I am Chris Coleman.
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I'm the ERCOT meteorologist,
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the only meteorologist at ERCOT.
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Some of you may already know me.
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I joined ERCOT in 2012,
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and actually right after the 2011 event.
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And it was other than
maybe Hurricane Harvey,
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I wasn't too stressed,
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and then along came last February.
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So I'm going to discuss
the February event
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and give you some idea
how that stacks up historically.
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And I'm just actually here
to give a brief introduction
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which it's a challenge
for me to be brief.
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And I'm also used to walking around.
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So this is all very new for me.
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All of this is
new for all of us.
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Okay. (laughs)
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Fair enough.
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You're in good company.
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And then I'll introduce the
main speaker here to my left.
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All right, so as you know
periods of extreme winter,
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similar to what impacted
the Texas power grid
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in February 2021 are rare.
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And they don't necessirily...
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This is one of the things
I'm gonna point out here is,
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just because you have a cold period
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doesn't mean you're
gonna have a cold winter.
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I actually give a talk each September,
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a weatherization workshop with many
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of the generation managers and Texas RE
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and this is one of my talking points
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heading into before each winter.
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You don't need a cold
winter to have a cold extreme.
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And that's exactly
what we saw last winter.
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So I looked at data back to the 1890s.
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So you have 120 years,
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a little over 120 years
with the given criteria
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in these following slides here,
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we'll show you how I came
to five winters in particular
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with extreme prolonged cold temperatures
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impacting the entire region.
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So the top two criteria
were extreme cold
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and a need to impact the entire state.
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And then your next level
would be a prolonged period
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of cold.
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Sometimes you'll get
a one or two day event
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and then you move on
and it's above freezing
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and things can get
back to normal quicker.
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Unlike what happened in
February this past February.
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So if I may on that one,
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so what was your cutoff when
you moved to that next level?
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Was it beyond two days since
this was a five day event or?
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There wasn't.
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This was actually about a 10 to 12 days.
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Okay.
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What we experienced
this past February.
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Yes.
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I didn't have a strict cutoff,
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I just did a comparison and,
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well, you'll get maybe some idea.
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But, yes, ideally you'd
look for something more
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than a couple of
days, but there wasn't.
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I didn't really set a must be five days.
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You'll see I do have some
temperature thresholds.
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Okay.
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All right, so until
this past February
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it had been 31 years
since we had experienced
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something similar, and
that was December, 1989.
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You've probably heard
that year mentioned.
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What happened in February,
2021 and December of 1989,
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both were much more
extreme than what happened
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in February, 2011.
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The most extreme winter periods,
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typically of consecutive
days of cold buildup.
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Again, that's your
second level of focus.
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And I started with primary
focus on Dallas, then Houston,
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and then tried to expand it to include,
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so you've got North
Coast, Austin Central,
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Abilene West, Brownsville South,
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to get as many of those
cities within the set criteria
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as possible to define
these most extreme winters.
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This is a very interesting
graph, I think so.
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This is last winter.
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This is what it looked like.
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So your normal would
be any of those blue bars
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going upwards.
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That's above normal temperatures.
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And downward would be
below normal temperatures.
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And you can see up until
roughly February 10th or so,
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most of the days had been above normal.
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We had some week below normals,
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but nothing out of the ordinary.
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And then you see days there.
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This is for Austin.
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I used Austin for this graph,
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just being a kind of a
center point for the state.
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But you could apply this,
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I could show you the same
graph from any location in Texas,
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and you'd get the same
general flavor from that.
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How extreme that when
you're pushing 35 to 40 degrees
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below normal there
by mid-month that was.
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All right, so I mentioned (indistinct).
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First level of focus was
with Dallas and then Houston.
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So I've got a bunch
of data here for Dallas.
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In fact, there's an appendix there.
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The last two slides have
some very detailed information
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on Dallas kind of a daily look.
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Again, if we wanna
look at this a little deeper,
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the data is there,
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but I'm trying to keep this short here.
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So in Dallas I found 14
winters dating back to 1899
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that recorded a low of
five degrees or colder.
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Interestingly, every
decade from the 1890s
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through the 1990s,
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actually, even though the
consistent data for Dallas
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only went back to 1899.
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It's very clear 1895 also
was an extreme cold,
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but it's lagging data and spots.
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But every decade from the
1890s through the 1990s,
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Dallas had at least two
winters with temperatures
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that were 10 degrees or colder.
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Apart from 1997 to 2020,
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that never happened once.
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So it's been happening
once for a decade or more
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and we had a-- Yeah.
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20 year break.
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And we had at
least twice a decade
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for over a hundred years.
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But not at all in
the last 20 years?
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Yeah, up until we'd
gone 23 plus years,
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24 years without any 10 degree
cold temperatures in Dallas.
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And 2011 by comparison was 13 degrees,
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was the low in Dallas,
to give you some idea.
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In Houston then there were 14 winters.
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Also winters dating back,
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I was able to go back to 1895.
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They recorded a low
of 15 degrees or colder.
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So those graphs there on the right
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that shows you then the winters,
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the 14 winters for Dallas,
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five degrees or colder there at the top.
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And the numbers in parentheses show you
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where that Texas winter
ranked as far as cold to warm.
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So 1899 there with the one behind that,
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that was the coldest winter on record
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for the state of Texas.
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Just to give you some idea.
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So actually, it had six of
the 14 winters were top 11.
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So they don't again,
that's one thing I emphasize
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that you don't need a cold winter
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to have in a cold extreme period.
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And just over half the winters,
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we're not necessarily all that cold.
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But there's your slide
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2021, 1989, 1983, 64, 49,
47, 43, 33, 30, 1918, 1912
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and 1911, 1985, 1899.
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You see a lot of those were pre 1950,
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actually all but four
of them were of the 14.
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So 10 of the 14 extreme colds in Dallas
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occurred before 1950.
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And here's a same
idea there with Houston.
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You do get a few different years,
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but most of those years overlap.
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So those are the years I'm focusing on.
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And from that, (indistinct)
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well, the top bullet is really
kind of my final analysis.
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The winters that I focused
on as the most extreme,
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most prolonged
impacting the entire state.
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There's five winters,
2021, February, 1989, 1983.
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Those were both Decembers
and 1930 and or in 1899.
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So you did have two in
the 1980s that fit my criteria.
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Again, with those
temperature thresholds,
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five degrees for Dallas,
15 degrees for (indistinct).
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Yeah, five degrees or colder for Dallas
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and 15 degrees for Houston.
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So actually taking that dataset.
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So again, that was kinda
more my end bullet there,
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but that second bullet there
is the Dallas and Houston
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five and 15.
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So that includes those
top five plus a few more.
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And to get those top
five, then I bring in Austin.
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You see the bottom there,
Austin, Abilene and Brownsville.
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And so you have Austin
recorded temperature
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at 12 degrees or colder.
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And the reason I chose 12 degrees,
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I looked for a point
when you had at least 10
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historical winters to fit that,
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but not more than 15.
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So that's what applied
those to Dallas, Houston,
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Austin, Abilene and Brownsville.
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That's why you get those.
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It was nice, easy numbers there,
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numbers that made
sense five and 15 degrees
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for Dallas and Houston,
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but to get it to fit into that same,
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or you didn't have too many,
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but you had enough years,
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he ended up with some
funny looking numbers there,
00:11:57.927 --> 00:12:02.700
Austin at 12, Abilene at
two and Brownsville at 23.
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And so there's the years that get that,
00:12:04.980 --> 00:12:07.420
you put all five of
those locations together,
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you get those top five.
00:12:09.950 --> 00:12:12.680
Again, so the idea is
to fit every city to match
00:12:12.680 --> 00:12:14.230
that criteria.
00:12:14.230 --> 00:12:15.260
Chris.
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Hi, good morning.
00:12:16.710 --> 00:12:21.710
Is there any effort to include
maybe a little bit more west,
00:12:23.836 --> 00:12:25.890
West Texas like Midland-Odessa or?
00:12:25.890 --> 00:12:29.910
Yeah, I actually, I would
wanted to include Midland.
00:12:29.910 --> 00:12:32.980
I had much more data
available for Abilene.
00:12:32.980 --> 00:12:37.980
So using Midland's primary
recording observation point,
00:12:40.460 --> 00:12:42.370
the data didn't go
back far enough for me.
00:12:42.370 --> 00:12:43.820
There are other locations there,
00:12:43.820 --> 00:12:45.680
and it would be a matter of taking
00:12:45.680 --> 00:12:48.624
some of the secondary locations
00:12:48.624 --> 00:12:50.410
and maybe piecing it together
00:12:50.410 --> 00:12:53.800
to get some more far West Texas data.
00:12:53.800 --> 00:12:55.600
It just wasn't as readily available.
00:12:55.600 --> 00:12:56.541
Yeah.
00:12:56.541 --> 00:12:57.374
So.
00:12:57.374 --> 00:12:59.380
So it didn't go all the
way back to the 1890s?
00:12:59.380 --> 00:13:00.400
For Midland.
00:13:00.400 --> 00:13:01.610
To capture that.
00:13:01.610 --> 00:13:02.940
Right.
Okay, That makes sense.
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Yeah, I think a lot of
people like to claim Abilene
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is West Texas and it's not far enough.
00:13:07.460 --> 00:13:08.790
Yeah, no, I agree with you.
00:13:08.790 --> 00:13:10.510
That's as far west as I,
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again, now John here
has at least going into this,
00:13:15.510 --> 00:13:18.100
had a much better database than I did.
00:13:18.100 --> 00:13:21.610
So I think he may have more available.
00:13:21.610 --> 00:13:25.120
We spent a good
period just gathering data
00:13:25.120 --> 00:13:26.580
for within ERCOT.
00:13:26.580 --> 00:13:27.960
We had a lot of data back to 1950
00:13:27.960 --> 00:13:30.410
and then we were lacking before that.
00:13:30.410 --> 00:13:34.114
So we've spent most of the last month
00:13:34.114 --> 00:13:38.109
just trying to get historical
data that covered it.
00:13:38.109 --> 00:13:40.720
Just broadly speaking
is of historical data
00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:43.763
back to 1890's or 1850's
not publicly available.
00:13:46.500 --> 00:13:47.520
Yes and no.
00:13:47.520 --> 00:13:49.840
There is some publicly available data.
00:13:49.840 --> 00:13:54.210
The key is finding quality,
public available data.
00:13:54.210 --> 00:13:56.570
And a lot of it that
you will just download
00:13:56.570 --> 00:13:58.780
from the internet
either has lots of holes
00:13:58.780 --> 00:14:00.510
or it has bad data.
00:14:00.510 --> 00:14:02.350
And so there are actually
weather companies
00:14:02.350 --> 00:14:04.620
that exist that just sell weather data,
00:14:04.620 --> 00:14:07.000
because what they
do is they fill the holes,
00:14:07.000 --> 00:14:09.550
they clean the data and
make sure there's no bad data.
00:14:09.550 --> 00:14:12.900
So it's kind of a process
to get good reliable data
00:14:12.900 --> 00:14:14.370
prior to 1950.
00:14:14.370 --> 00:14:15.280
Okay, interesting.
00:14:15.280 --> 00:14:17.340
So that's the first question
we need to ask anybody
00:14:17.340 --> 00:14:20.858
that comes into the Commission is,
00:14:20.858 --> 00:14:23.470
if they paid for the
weather data or not?
00:14:23.470 --> 00:14:25.160
Right.
We'll talk about this topic.
00:14:25.160 --> 00:14:26.110
Yup, yup.
00:14:26.110 --> 00:14:28.570
Yeah, that was the
single biggest obstacle.
00:14:28.570 --> 00:14:29.403
Interesting.
00:14:29.403 --> 00:14:31.460
I was just obtaining good
quality of weather data.
00:14:31.460 --> 00:14:33.750
But I think Commissioner
Cobos's point is a good point
00:14:33.750 --> 00:14:37.550
just in terms of whatever
standard we're considering
00:14:37.550 --> 00:14:39.526
in terms of supply chain management,
00:14:39.526 --> 00:14:41.920
and how that's accounted for,
00:14:41.920 --> 00:14:45.170
the Permian has to be in it somewhere.
00:14:45.170 --> 00:14:46.460
Yeah, absolutely.
00:14:46.460 --> 00:14:49.120
And even further sort of far west,
00:14:49.120 --> 00:14:51.943
if he can or no El Paso
is not in ERCOT, but.
00:14:51.943 --> 00:14:53.050
Yup, I agree with you.
00:14:53.050 --> 00:14:55.470
I think in Midland-Odessa
because of the Permian
00:14:55.470 --> 00:14:56.850
and Delaware Basin in the area,
00:14:56.850 --> 00:15:00.874
but I can't think of another
metropolitan area outside that.
00:15:00.874 --> 00:15:01.707
(chuckles)
00:15:01.707 --> 00:15:02.540
Yeah, I mean, there's
lots of little towns
00:15:02.540 --> 00:15:04.370
that actually do have
quite a bit of data,
00:15:04.370 --> 00:15:06.500
Alpine and in places like that,
00:15:06.500 --> 00:15:10.540
that strangely have more
data than I think Midland did.
00:15:10.540 --> 00:15:11.373
So.
00:15:11.373 --> 00:15:12.300
Yeah.
00:15:12.300 --> 00:15:13.670
Well, I'm certainly a fan of plugging
00:15:13.670 --> 00:15:15.127
in Alpine (indistinct).
00:15:15.127 --> 00:15:17.700
(laughs)
00:15:17.700 --> 00:15:18.623
So it's there,
00:15:18.623 --> 00:15:23.423
it's just a matter of getting
the data filled in and usable,
00:15:25.130 --> 00:15:27.810
but, yeah, I wanted to go
further west than Abilene.
00:15:27.810 --> 00:15:31.130
I was definitely aware
of there's a big gap
00:15:31.130 --> 00:15:34.013
there between Abilene and
the rest of the state west.
00:15:38.050 --> 00:15:39.090
Yeah, and the other issue, of course,
00:15:39.090 --> 00:15:43.920
as you see, if you just
focus on 1950 forward,
00:15:43.920 --> 00:15:48.746
then you really have
1983 and 1989, 2021.
00:15:48.746 --> 00:15:51.020
And there's a couple
other years that are kinda,
00:15:51.020 --> 00:15:53.390
again, John will have
maybe a little different spin,
00:15:53.390 --> 00:15:56.230
but the years there may
be another year or two
00:15:56.230 --> 00:15:59.500
in the fifties and sixties
that you could kind of fit
00:15:59.500 --> 00:16:01.850
into this depending on
what criteria you use.
00:16:01.850 --> 00:16:05.620
But there was many more
extreme pulled periods prior to 1950
00:16:05.620 --> 00:16:07.723
than there has been since 1950.
00:16:09.870 --> 00:16:11.630
So the last one, one more time.
00:16:11.630 --> 00:16:15.640
There has been more
extreme cold periods prior to 1950
00:16:15.640 --> 00:16:17.940
and since than there has been since.
00:16:17.940 --> 00:16:20.090
Okay, good deal.
00:16:20.090 --> 00:16:21.690
I think that's your final slide.
00:16:23.900 --> 00:16:25.330
Yup, except for I've mentioned.
00:16:25.330 --> 00:16:30.330
So if you wanna dig into
daily historical data for Dallas,
00:16:31.030 --> 00:16:32.870
it's there and I can make that available
00:16:32.870 --> 00:16:34.333
for other locations as well.
00:16:34.333 --> 00:16:35.820
That was kind of my starting point.
00:16:35.820 --> 00:16:39.770
It's fun to look at especially
if you're either a data geek
00:16:39.770 --> 00:16:44.393
or a weather geek, but
otherwise it's busy slides.
00:16:45.310 --> 00:16:46.590
All right, thank you, Chris.
00:16:46.590 --> 00:16:47.910
Yeah, thank you.
00:16:47.910 --> 00:16:49.225
John.
00:16:49.225 --> 00:16:50.790
The floor is yours.
00:16:50.790 --> 00:16:52.097
Thank you.
00:16:52.097 --> 00:16:56.690
I've been asked to give a
sort of broad brush picture
00:16:56.690 --> 00:16:59.280
of Texas climate
hazards associated with it.
00:16:59.280 --> 00:17:04.280
I will be relating it
to energy generation
00:17:05.130 --> 00:17:07.030
distribution systems
to the extent I can,
00:17:07.030 --> 00:17:10.340
recognize I'm a climate
expert not an energy expert.
00:17:10.340 --> 00:17:12.913
So forgive any
misstatements in that regard.
00:17:14.180 --> 00:17:16.930
I want to give us,
00:17:16.930 --> 00:17:19.490
start with an overview of
the general climate of Texas,
00:17:19.490 --> 00:17:21.840
give basic common picture that,
00:17:21.840 --> 00:17:26.423
discuss the hazards that are
relevant to our power systems,
00:17:27.380 --> 00:17:30.990
talk about trends and
in those different factors
00:17:30.990 --> 00:17:33.283
and how we assess those,
00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:38.827
getting more specific
to the rule-making,
00:17:38.827 --> 00:17:42.250
and how we analyze return periods,
00:17:42.250 --> 00:17:44.980
return frequency for extreme events,
00:17:44.980 --> 00:17:48.310
and then using extreme
colds as an example,
00:17:48.310 --> 00:17:52.330
and then bringing it
back to the specific event
00:17:52.330 --> 00:17:54.053
of February, 2021.
00:17:55.500 --> 00:17:59.690
So I can summarize the
basics of Texas climate
00:17:59.690 --> 00:18:00.530
in three slides.
00:18:00.530 --> 00:18:03.720
I've got the average minimum
temperature for January
00:18:03.720 --> 00:18:04.553
on the left.
00:18:04.553 --> 00:18:07.640
Each color represents a
three degree Fahrenheit range.
00:18:07.640 --> 00:18:11.750
The average maximum
temperature in July is in the middle.
00:18:11.750 --> 00:18:15.892
And as an example, the
average February precipitation
00:18:15.892 --> 00:18:17.630
on the right.
00:18:17.630 --> 00:18:21.420
And basically all you
need to know is that,
00:18:21.420 --> 00:18:24.860
in the winter time, variations
are from north to south.
00:18:24.860 --> 00:18:28.390
North Texas is typically
about 30 degrees warmer
00:18:28.390 --> 00:18:30.317
than the South Texas.
00:18:30.317 --> 00:18:33.360
And the summertime,
it's a lot more uniform.
00:18:33.360 --> 00:18:35.110
The mountains of West Texas are cooler,
00:18:35.110 --> 00:18:37.650
but you can have very high temperatures
00:18:37.650 --> 00:18:39.770
just about anywhere else.
00:18:39.770 --> 00:18:42.910
For rainfall it's an
east west variation,
00:18:42.910 --> 00:18:44.780
West Texas is dry,
00:18:44.780 --> 00:18:46.960
East Texas as wet as you all know,
00:18:46.960 --> 00:18:50.099
it's actually quite
remarkable how regular
00:18:50.099 --> 00:18:53.403
that pattern of precipitation
is going from east to west.
00:18:55.330 --> 00:18:57.530
The climate is not just
the average conditions.
00:18:57.530 --> 00:19:00.120
It's also the extremes.
00:19:00.120 --> 00:19:01.660
And these are the extremes
00:19:01.660 --> 00:19:04.777
that I think are especially relevant.
00:19:04.777 --> 00:19:09.777
Extreme heat and extreme
cold affect power distribution
00:19:11.370 --> 00:19:12.960
in different ways.
00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:16.860
Frozen precipitation is
obviously an important hazard.
00:19:16.860 --> 00:19:20.343
Wind storms, such as
derechos and hurricanes,
00:19:21.240 --> 00:19:23.150
and then floods and droughts
00:19:23.150 --> 00:19:25.060
also affect things in different ways,
00:19:25.060 --> 00:19:27.330
and be perfectly general and floods,
00:19:27.330 --> 00:19:29.867
I suppose we should include storm surge
00:19:29.867 --> 00:19:32.220
and saltwater flooding as
well as freshwater flooding
00:19:32.220 --> 00:19:34.493
for facilities along the coast.
00:19:36.070 --> 00:19:38.930
Now, for assessing trends in those,
00:19:38.930 --> 00:19:42.950
there's basically three
different lines of evidence.
00:19:42.950 --> 00:19:44.150
And these were first outlined
00:19:44.150 --> 00:19:46.380
in the National Academy
of Sciences report
00:19:46.380 --> 00:19:47.850
several years ago.
00:19:47.850 --> 00:19:50.540
First, looking at the historical data,
00:19:50.540 --> 00:19:54.820
is there a trend in this
particular type of hazard
00:19:54.820 --> 00:19:58.168
that can be detected given the data?
00:19:58.168 --> 00:20:00.920
Sometimes if you can't detect a trend
00:20:00.920 --> 00:20:05.130
it may be a data quality issue
like trends and tornadoes,
00:20:05.130 --> 00:20:07.020
we have no clue about historically,
00:20:07.020 --> 00:20:10.150
because we used to avoid tornadoes
00:20:10.150 --> 00:20:11.823
and now some of us chase them.
00:20:13.220 --> 00:20:14.360
Second line of evidence,
00:20:14.360 --> 00:20:16.870
do climate models
simulate or project a trend
00:20:16.870 --> 00:20:18.193
in a particular hazard?
00:20:19.210 --> 00:20:23.340
And third, is there a sound
scientific understanding
00:20:23.340 --> 00:20:26.020
of why climate change
ought to be causing a trend
00:20:26.020 --> 00:20:27.393
in a particular factor?
00:20:28.230 --> 00:20:31.410
So I'll go through each
of those types of hazards
00:20:31.410 --> 00:20:34.970
that I mentioned and give
you just a brief summary
00:20:34.970 --> 00:20:37.940
of the scientific confidence of a trend
00:20:37.940 --> 00:20:40.180
based on these three aspects.
00:20:40.180 --> 00:20:41.750
And since we just finished the Olympics,
00:20:41.750 --> 00:20:44.700
I'll be awarding a maximum
of 10 points for each category.
00:20:44.700 --> 00:20:46.663
And the final score is what will count.
00:20:47.590 --> 00:20:49.963
So for extreme heat,
00:20:51.807 --> 00:20:52.940
it's getting worse.
00:20:52.940 --> 00:20:54.870
We expect higher temperatures
00:20:54.870 --> 00:20:57.440
lead to higher extreme temperatures.
00:20:57.440 --> 00:20:59.550
The only reason it's not 3 out of 30
00:20:59.550 --> 00:21:01.680
is that back in the 1930s,
00:21:01.680 --> 00:21:03.930
Texas had some really hot summers
00:21:03.930 --> 00:21:06.410
and we really haven't generally equal
00:21:06.410 --> 00:21:08.260
those temperatures yet,
00:21:08.260 --> 00:21:11.493
but the trend is pretty
strong since the mid 70s.
00:21:12.650 --> 00:21:13.993
Extreme cold.
00:21:15.110 --> 00:21:17.260
I've highlighted that in
green rather than red,
00:21:17.260 --> 00:21:21.380
because extreme cold
is becoming less extreme,
00:21:21.380 --> 00:21:24.100
according to all three
lines of evidence.
00:21:24.100 --> 00:21:29.100
So extreme cold, like
February, 2021 is expected to be,
00:21:30.180 --> 00:21:32.420
has become less likely
expected to continue
00:21:32.420 --> 00:21:34.390
to become less likely.
00:21:34.390 --> 00:21:37.419
Same thing applies
to frozen precipitation.
00:21:37.419 --> 00:21:40.890
That's primarily
because most of the time
00:21:40.890 --> 00:21:44.210
when we get precipitation
in Texas is in the form of rain.
00:21:44.210 --> 00:21:47.530
So temperature is the
main factor for determining
00:21:47.530 --> 00:21:49.930
whether we will get
frozen precipitation.
00:21:49.930 --> 00:21:54.140
So more rain events and
fewer frozen precipitation events
00:21:54.140 --> 00:21:55.283
like ice and snow.
00:21:57.530 --> 00:22:00.080
Wind storms, probably getting worse.
00:22:00.080 --> 00:22:03.420
The strongest hurricanes are
expected to become stronger.
00:22:03.420 --> 00:22:06.910
So that's mainly a factor for Southeast
00:22:06.910 --> 00:22:09.750
and the Southern Texas
with droughts and floods.
00:22:09.750 --> 00:22:12.190
It really depends upon
what you're talking about
00:22:12.190 --> 00:22:13.180
with droughts and floods,
00:22:13.180 --> 00:22:16.873
'cause there's lots of
different definitions of them.
00:22:17.850 --> 00:22:20.510
Probably most relevant
for drought is low flow,
00:22:20.510 --> 00:22:22.040
which affects hydro-power
00:22:22.040 --> 00:22:25.162
and also affects water temperatures.
00:22:25.162 --> 00:22:25.995
(clears throat)
00:22:25.995 --> 00:22:30.840
And that is likely to be
getting worse over time
00:22:30.840 --> 00:22:33.853
as higher temperatures
lead to greater evaporation.
00:22:35.110 --> 00:22:40.110
Meanwhile, floods depend
upon the sort of flood protection
00:22:40.660 --> 00:22:41.760
infrastructure rehab,
00:22:41.760 --> 00:22:43.920
but just looking at it meteorologically
00:22:43.920 --> 00:22:46.070
in terms of heavy rain,
00:22:46.070 --> 00:22:48.780
rainfall is becoming more
intense across the state
00:22:48.780 --> 00:22:52.003
and across all of the Southern
and Southeast United States.
00:22:54.020 --> 00:22:56.470
So how would we estimate return periods?
00:22:56.470 --> 00:22:58.490
I'm sorry, quick questions.
00:22:58.490 --> 00:22:59.390
Sorry, go ahead.
00:22:59.390 --> 00:23:00.400
On your last slide there,
00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:05.400
you're saying we will have
higher frequency of low flows
00:23:06.400 --> 00:23:08.810
while at the same time
in the drought category,
00:23:08.810 --> 00:23:12.273
while also having greater
frequency of heavy rain.
00:23:13.638 --> 00:23:16.132
That would seem to be contradictory.
00:23:16.132 --> 00:23:16.965
Is that because of--
00:23:16.965 --> 00:23:17.798
It's (indistinct)?
00:23:17.798 --> 00:23:18.631
(laughs)
00:23:18.631 --> 00:23:20.117
So the (clears throat).
00:23:22.070 --> 00:23:24.290
So basically what happens is,
00:23:24.290 --> 00:23:28.410
the precipitation comes
in more intense bursts
00:23:28.410 --> 00:23:30.460
so that when it rains,
00:23:30.460 --> 00:23:32.800
it tends to be heavier rain,
00:23:32.800 --> 00:23:35.834
but then you have longer periods of time
00:23:35.834 --> 00:23:38.170
between those events.
00:23:38.170 --> 00:23:39.780
And that's true, not just a daily scale,
00:23:39.780 --> 00:23:41.651
but that's on a monthly basis.
00:23:41.651 --> 00:23:45.140
And the other factor
affecting the droughts is,
00:23:45.140 --> 00:23:47.360
with the higher temperature
you have greater evaporation.
00:23:47.360 --> 00:23:49.910
So the water doesn't
stay in the system as long,
00:23:49.910 --> 00:23:51.850
it evaporates back into the atmospheres.
00:23:51.850 --> 00:23:54.693
So things dry out faster
between the rain events.
00:23:58.190 --> 00:23:59.440
One more question, sir.
00:24:00.370 --> 00:24:02.780
Okay, so you say droughts, it depends.
00:24:02.780 --> 00:24:06.083
So 2011, we saw the drought of record.
00:24:07.120 --> 00:24:08.760
It seemed to create an environment
00:24:08.760 --> 00:24:12.423
where it was a
self-fulfilling trend for awhile.
00:24:14.800 --> 00:24:15.810
It was a sustained,
00:24:15.810 --> 00:24:17.830
and matter of fact, anecdotally.
00:24:17.830 --> 00:24:20.120
So I come from a family of ranchers,
00:24:20.120 --> 00:24:23.430
and I don't know if you
gave the briefing in 1996
00:24:23.430 --> 00:24:24.263
to my father,
00:24:24.263 --> 00:24:27.030
but the bottom line is cattle raisers
00:24:27.030 --> 00:24:28.127
had a briefing in 1996.
00:24:28.127 --> 00:24:29.530
And I remember this vividly,
00:24:29.530 --> 00:24:32.530
because someone from the
State Climatologists Office
00:24:32.530 --> 00:24:33.700
told all those ranchers
00:24:33.700 --> 00:24:36.420
that we were going into
a 30 year drought cycle.
00:24:36.420 --> 00:24:38.810
And you could almost predict that,
00:24:38.810 --> 00:24:43.430
because of previous events
and just atmospheric trends
00:24:43.430 --> 00:24:45.300
that you were able to monitor.
00:24:45.300 --> 00:24:50.300
And so it's coming
close to 30 years now.
00:24:51.130 --> 00:24:53.930
And what are you seeing there in terms
00:24:53.930 --> 00:24:58.193
of this compounding effect of
these more intense droughts?
00:24:59.040 --> 00:25:00.410
A couple of things there,
00:25:00.410 --> 00:25:03.180
first off, it turned out to be 20 years,
00:25:03.180 --> 00:25:07.520
basically cause since
2015 it's been fairly wet.
00:25:07.520 --> 00:25:11.670
And, yeah, if I were giving that talk,
00:25:11.670 --> 00:25:13.390
I don't think it would be as confident
00:25:13.390 --> 00:25:14.560
as your father remembered it.
00:25:14.560 --> 00:25:15.518
Okay.
00:25:15.518 --> 00:25:16.670
(laughs)
00:25:16.670 --> 00:25:20.660
But at any rate,
yeah, they tend to...
00:25:20.660 --> 00:25:23.610
There is decadal scale
variability that happens,
00:25:23.610 --> 00:25:25.637
and that's driven by what's
happening in the oceans
00:25:25.637 --> 00:25:26.770
that can affect us.
00:25:26.770 --> 00:25:30.410
But unfortunately it's
not very predictable,
00:25:30.410 --> 00:25:32.720
especially for winter rainfall,
00:25:32.720 --> 00:25:35.350
and summertime it doesn't
really help us much at all
00:25:35.350 --> 00:25:37.571
in terms of predictability.
00:25:37.571 --> 00:25:39.450
But the other factor in terms of things
00:25:39.450 --> 00:25:41.133
feeding off each other,
00:25:41.133 --> 00:25:44.810
the amount of rain we
get in the say the spring
00:25:44.810 --> 00:25:48.540
and early summer affects how much rain
00:25:48.540 --> 00:25:49.540
we get in the summertime,
00:25:49.540 --> 00:25:52.050
and also how high the temperatures get.
00:25:52.050 --> 00:25:56.130
So for example, in 2011,
things were bone dry out,
00:25:56.130 --> 00:25:59.050
whereas this summer
things are fairly wet.
00:25:59.050 --> 00:26:01.800
And the difference is we're
getting just as much sun
00:26:02.750 --> 00:26:03.680
in both seasons,
00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:07.530
but this year the sun
is evaporating water.
00:26:07.530 --> 00:26:08.440
The plants are happy,
00:26:08.440 --> 00:26:09.990
they're pumping water
into the atmosphere,
00:26:09.990 --> 00:26:11.570
they're growing like crazy.
00:26:11.570 --> 00:26:15.000
So most of that energy is
going into the evaporating water.
00:26:15.000 --> 00:26:18.410
In 2011, there wasn't
any water available.
00:26:18.410 --> 00:26:19.570
So just about all the energy
00:26:19.570 --> 00:26:21.460
went into heating up the ground,
00:26:21.460 --> 00:26:23.040
which heats up the atmosphere.
00:26:23.040 --> 00:26:26.240
So temperatures in the
summertime and droughts
00:26:26.240 --> 00:26:27.660
are not independent of each other,
00:26:27.660 --> 00:26:29.097
they go hand in hand.
00:26:29.097 --> 00:26:29.930
Okay.
00:26:35.300 --> 00:26:39.020
Okay, I'm gonna skip most
of the technical details here.
00:26:39.020 --> 00:26:41.260
You're asking about data.
00:26:41.260 --> 00:26:45.910
We have a good representative hourly
00:26:45.910 --> 00:26:49.630
or three hourly data
going back to the 1940s
00:26:49.630 --> 00:26:51.253
for most parts of the state.
00:26:52.180 --> 00:26:56.530
We have daily observations
of temperature and rainfall
00:26:56.530 --> 00:27:00.898
that in many places
go back to the 1880s.
00:27:00.898 --> 00:27:03.560
For Midland, as you heard,
00:27:03.560 --> 00:27:07.070
we don't have climate data
that covers that key period
00:27:07.070 --> 00:27:10.010
in the early part of the 20th
century or just before that.
00:27:10.010 --> 00:27:12.550
But Lubbock is a long-term station
00:27:12.550 --> 00:27:15.380
and Roswell New Mexico
is a long-term station.
00:27:15.380 --> 00:27:19.470
So the same sorts of
trends that are present there,
00:27:19.470 --> 00:27:22.500
would apply to the Midland-Odessa area,
00:27:22.500 --> 00:27:25.100
so we can make good
estimates of the risk out there.
00:27:26.910 --> 00:27:28.563
And in terms of probabilities,
00:27:29.530 --> 00:27:34.530
as it's normally used, say
in 99% probability threshold
00:27:36.040 --> 00:27:40.210
would be talking about the
probability of event occurring
00:27:40.210 --> 00:27:41.850
in a given year.
00:27:41.850 --> 00:27:45.080
So essentially it means
there's a one in 100 chance
00:27:45.080 --> 00:27:47.050
of that particular
extreme event occurring,
00:27:47.050 --> 00:27:51.423
or 99% chance of it not
occurring in a given year.
00:27:52.510 --> 00:27:54.390
It's sometimes
misinterpreted as an event
00:27:54.390 --> 00:27:57.410
that occurs once every
hundred years like clockwork,
00:27:57.410 --> 00:27:59.360
but it's really just
like a roulette wheel.
00:27:59.360 --> 00:28:02.330
You don't know when the
number is gonna come up.
00:28:02.330 --> 00:28:05.720
So that's important to
note that on that flesh out
00:28:05.720 --> 00:28:07.683
that statistical nuance,
00:28:09.480 --> 00:28:12.380
just because something
happens two out of three years
00:28:12.380 --> 00:28:14.610
in extreme event happens
two out of three years
00:28:14.610 --> 00:28:17.430
doesn't mean that that calculus is off.
00:28:17.430 --> 00:28:21.160
It means that it flipped
heads two in a row,
00:28:21.160 --> 00:28:23.990
and there can be
flipping tales many times
00:28:25.830 --> 00:28:30.830
over many iterations and that
probability resets every year?
00:28:31.840 --> 00:28:33.140
That's absolutely right.
00:28:34.115 --> 00:28:38.470
What those events do though
is they give us more events
00:28:38.470 --> 00:28:41.940
to bid or estimate what
the probabilities are?
00:28:41.940 --> 00:28:46.727
So our estimate of the risk of
an extreme cold of it in 2022
00:28:47.880 --> 00:28:50.690
is probably higher than it
would have been in 2021,
00:28:50.690 --> 00:28:53.530
just because we've seen
that extreme cold events
00:28:53.530 --> 00:28:54.853
really do still happen.
00:28:59.860 --> 00:29:02.210
Okay, now, part of the
challenge with the rulemaking,
00:29:02.210 --> 00:29:05.570
gotta be what exactly are
going to define hazards,
00:29:05.570 --> 00:29:08.090
because different cold
events, for example,
00:29:08.090 --> 00:29:10.593
affect different facilities differently.
00:29:11.490 --> 00:29:12.860
Quick question on
that last point you made.
00:29:12.860 --> 00:29:16.560
The extreme events are
then rolled into historical data
00:29:16.560 --> 00:29:17.740
for the next year.
00:29:17.740 --> 00:29:20.140
Do your calculations
give increased waiting
00:29:20.140 --> 00:29:21.860
to more recent data,
00:29:21.860 --> 00:29:25.240
or is it uniform across
decades or across time?
00:29:25.240 --> 00:29:27.780
I'll show you an
example in a moment,
00:29:27.780 --> 00:29:29.603
it'll be easier to see
what I'm talking about
00:29:29.603 --> 00:29:30.436
with the graphics.
00:29:30.436 --> 00:29:32.697
But thank you for that question.
00:29:34.825 --> 00:29:39.825
So for say a wellhead
perhaps one or two days
00:29:42.930 --> 00:29:44.500
of cold weather might
make the difference
00:29:44.500 --> 00:29:46.183
between whether things freeze up.
00:29:47.230 --> 00:29:49.350
What may matter is how cold it gets?
00:29:49.350 --> 00:29:51.420
What the average temperature
is over an extended period
00:29:51.420 --> 00:29:56.420
of time for facilities
such as wind turbines.
00:29:57.210 --> 00:30:00.470
It may not matter how
cold it is as long as it's dry,
00:30:00.470 --> 00:30:02.310
but if you have
precipitation the same time,
00:30:02.310 --> 00:30:05.520
that may be the dispositive factor.
00:30:05.520 --> 00:30:07.110
So there are lots of different ways
00:30:07.110 --> 00:30:08.897
that we have the ability
to slice and dice the data
00:30:08.897 --> 00:30:10.447
and come up with probabilities.
00:30:11.840 --> 00:30:14.140
I'll give you an example
for Abilene, as you heard,
00:30:14.140 --> 00:30:16.290
Abilene is a good long-term station.
00:30:16.290 --> 00:30:18.370
It also is very early in the alphabet.
00:30:18.370 --> 00:30:20.079
So that's the first
example that pops up.
00:30:20.079 --> 00:30:21.399
(laughs)
00:30:21.399 --> 00:30:25.950
Here's an example of 24
hour average temperature
00:30:25.950 --> 00:30:30.950
and the coldest 24 hour
period in any given year.
00:30:31.220 --> 00:30:34.590
We're gonna find a
year from July to June,
00:30:34.590 --> 00:30:36.920
so that the whole winter
season is one possible
00:30:36.920 --> 00:30:38.480
set of events.
00:30:38.480 --> 00:30:43.480
And the probabilities
here are calculated
00:30:44.310 --> 00:30:47.300
using all of those extreme events.
00:30:47.300 --> 00:30:49.373
It's not just the most extreme ones.
00:30:50.392 --> 00:30:54.070
So the blue line is the 50% probability.
00:30:54.070 --> 00:30:56.810
And so half of the event
should be above that,
00:30:56.810 --> 00:30:58.053
half should be below.
00:30:59.080 --> 00:31:01.960
Then the yellow is a 95% probability.
00:31:01.960 --> 00:31:04.580
There's something like 70 years here.
00:31:04.580 --> 00:31:09.094
So you'll have something
like three or four or five events
00:31:09.094 --> 00:31:11.280
below that line.
00:31:11.280 --> 00:31:15.531
98% is the green
line, 99%, the red line.
00:31:15.531 --> 00:31:18.690
The lines aren't straight
because for this statistic,
00:31:18.690 --> 00:31:23.170
I have allowed the risk
of extreme temperature
00:31:23.170 --> 00:31:25.833
to vary with the global
average temperature.
00:31:26.700 --> 00:31:29.650
And that doesn't mean that
I'm assuming the risk increase,
00:31:29.650 --> 00:31:30.513
it just says,
00:31:31.410 --> 00:31:33.097
if the risks are changing over time,
00:31:33.097 --> 00:31:36.430
they'll change what that
sort of temporal variation.
00:31:36.430 --> 00:31:38.080
So more of a change recently,
00:31:38.080 --> 00:31:41.250
less of a change earlier on.
00:31:41.250 --> 00:31:45.110
You can compare that to a longer dataset
00:31:45.110 --> 00:31:48.740
that goes back to the 1890s.
00:31:48.740 --> 00:31:51.800
This is daily average temperature,
00:31:51.800 --> 00:31:53.880
so it's slightly different numbers.
00:31:53.880 --> 00:31:57.500
And also as it happens
with this particular station,
00:31:57.500 --> 00:31:59.055
there's not a long-term trend
00:31:59.055 --> 00:32:01.450
present once you look back far enough
00:32:03.440 --> 00:32:05.060
to do a reliable estimate of trend,
00:32:05.060 --> 00:32:07.000
you would use not just a single station,
00:32:07.000 --> 00:32:09.260
but also a bunch of nearby stations
00:32:09.260 --> 00:32:11.880
so that you have a
better sample of events
00:32:11.880 --> 00:32:13.853
to estimate the trend.
00:32:15.390 --> 00:32:16.660
But any event you can...
00:32:16.660 --> 00:32:20.120
Let's see, remind me of
what your question was,
00:32:20.120 --> 00:32:21.980
because now I can answer.
00:32:21.980 --> 00:32:25.370
When you make
these calculations,
00:32:25.370 --> 00:32:28.240
do you give greater
weight to more recent data
00:32:28.240 --> 00:32:31.080
than older data?
00:32:31.080 --> 00:32:32.229
Okay.
00:32:32.229 --> 00:32:34.490
So no we don't.
00:32:34.490 --> 00:32:39.300
We are treating all data
equally to the extent that we,
00:32:39.300 --> 00:32:42.860
the data has been quality
controlled and vetted,
00:32:42.860 --> 00:32:46.530
because for determining
the hazard extreme events,
00:32:46.530 --> 00:32:50.120
you really need to have
as many events as possible
00:32:50.120 --> 00:32:53.087
to figure out how big the
tail of the distribution is,
00:32:53.087 --> 00:32:56.390
is the technical term for it.
00:32:56.390 --> 00:33:00.500
But if cold events are
becoming less frequent in time,
00:33:00.500 --> 00:33:04.140
it'll show up in a
trend of the analysis.
00:33:04.140 --> 00:33:05.030
It's also possible,
00:33:05.030 --> 00:33:06.840
and it's the standard
way of engineers do it,
00:33:06.840 --> 00:33:10.010
is to just estimate the
odds based on all the data,
00:33:10.010 --> 00:33:11.653
assuming no trend whatsoever.
00:33:12.890 --> 00:33:14.980
Before climate change
that was a good approach,
00:33:14.980 --> 00:33:17.980
and it's still a good
approach in many cases,
00:33:17.980 --> 00:33:19.880
but when there's good reason to expect
00:33:19.880 --> 00:33:21.500
that there's a trend present,
00:33:21.500 --> 00:33:23.840
I believe you wanted to
factor that in to the extent
00:33:23.840 --> 00:33:25.020
that you can.
00:33:25.020 --> 00:33:29.290
So that would include
greater way to more recent...
00:33:29.290 --> 00:33:30.920
It wouldn't be recent,
00:33:30.920 --> 00:33:34.180
but since the slide on the --
00:33:34.180 --> 00:33:36.300
Well, both of them now,
00:33:36.300 --> 00:33:39.890
since the points more
recently tend to be warmer
00:33:39.890 --> 00:33:41.970
than the points in the historic past,
00:33:41.970 --> 00:33:43.650
that will show up in the trends
00:33:43.650 --> 00:33:48.250
so that the estimate of the risk,
00:33:48.250 --> 00:33:49.500
as you can see, the lines are going up.
00:33:49.500 --> 00:33:51.260
So estimate of the risk of present day,
00:33:51.260 --> 00:33:53.560
is higher than the
estimate of what the risk
00:33:53.560 --> 00:33:54.650
was in 1950.
00:33:56.212 --> 00:33:57.210
Okay, gotcha.
00:33:57.210 --> 00:34:00.170
So Dr. Damon, on
that point, (clears throat)
00:34:00.170 --> 00:34:01.230
so as I alluded to,
00:34:01.230 --> 00:34:04.070
if you're in a drought cycle
or you're in a wet cycle,
00:34:04.070 --> 00:34:06.200
like the early 80s were really wet,
00:34:06.200 --> 00:34:08.610
the late 70s, early 70s.
00:34:08.610 --> 00:34:13.240
Now, does that increase your weighting
00:34:13.240 --> 00:34:15.710
since you're in those
cycles of a particular
00:34:15.710 --> 00:34:17.127
type of event occurring?
00:34:17.127 --> 00:34:18.730
Unless if we're talking about cold,
00:34:18.730 --> 00:34:21.250
which is the primary
danger to our system,
00:34:21.250 --> 00:34:24.283
do we weight it further
in a particular cycle?
00:34:25.840 --> 00:34:27.710
I do not advise doing that,
00:34:27.710 --> 00:34:32.710
because the cycles
themselves aren't as predictable
00:34:34.010 --> 00:34:36.030
as one would hope they would be.
00:34:36.030 --> 00:34:36.863
Okay.
00:34:36.863 --> 00:34:37.907
You can look back
in the data and say,
00:34:37.907 --> 00:34:42.847
"Hey, see we tend to
have a cold North Pacific
00:34:42.847 --> 00:34:45.339
"and we had this weather happening here,
00:34:45.339 --> 00:34:47.360
"then the temperatures are
warm in the North Pacific."
00:34:47.360 --> 00:34:48.850
But if you actually look at that,
00:34:48.850 --> 00:34:50.370
those temperature data in the Pacific
00:34:50.370 --> 00:34:53.470
and try to figure out
what's going on with it,
00:34:53.470 --> 00:34:56.730
you really can't predict
it well moving forward.
00:34:56.730 --> 00:34:58.110
Now, there is a lot of work going on,
00:34:58.110 --> 00:35:02.490
is to try to make decadal
temperature predictions,
00:35:02.490 --> 00:35:05.610
but those are mainly
focused on, (coughs)
00:35:05.610 --> 00:35:07.790
average temperatures.
00:35:07.790 --> 00:35:12.790
And as Chris alluded
to one extreme event is,
00:35:12.936 --> 00:35:16.710
is not consistent necessarily
with about average conditions
00:35:16.710 --> 00:35:17.543
in the winter are.
00:35:17.543 --> 00:35:21.870
So if we can do that, we
still I think several years away
00:35:21.870 --> 00:35:24.018
from being able to do that reliably.
00:35:24.018 --> 00:35:25.200
Okay.
00:35:25.200 --> 00:35:28.670
Dr. Gavin, just then
maybe you've answered this,
00:35:28.670 --> 00:35:33.520
but I guess as we sort of have
been hearing nationally news
00:35:33.520 --> 00:35:37.360
and the national media about heat waves
00:35:38.840 --> 00:35:42.360
occurring earlier in the
summer as we had one in June
00:35:42.360 --> 00:35:47.360
and both hot and cold
temperatures are kind of fluctuating
00:35:49.930 --> 00:35:50.763
a lot.
00:35:51.603 --> 00:35:53.350
And we've had this
extreme weather event,
00:35:53.350 --> 00:35:54.963
cold weather event in February.
00:35:56.788 --> 00:36:00.704
What can you do to plan for the future
00:36:00.704 --> 00:36:04.050
that seems to be like you said,
00:36:04.050 --> 00:36:04.910
a little bit unpredictable,
00:36:04.910 --> 00:36:06.610
but definitely taking into account
00:36:06.610 --> 00:36:10.010
that there are just
extreme weather events
00:36:10.010 --> 00:36:12.963
occurring potentially more frequently?
00:36:13.930 --> 00:36:15.390
'Cause I don't think that we can rely
00:36:15.390 --> 00:36:17.390
on the old models anymore.
00:36:17.390 --> 00:36:19.420
We've got to really kind
of think more progressively
00:36:19.420 --> 00:36:23.707
going forward on how
we're calculating statistics
00:36:23.707 --> 00:36:27.380
and what data we're using and
given the weather fluctuations
00:36:27.380 --> 00:36:29.373
in Texas and all over the country.
00:36:34.210 --> 00:36:37.363
It's a common shorthand.
00:36:38.540 --> 00:36:40.570
You hear a lot that says extreme weather
00:36:40.570 --> 00:36:41.710
is becoming more extreme.
00:36:41.710 --> 00:36:44.143
We're getting more
dramatic fluctuations.
00:36:48.296 --> 00:36:49.980
I think really no for simplification,
00:36:49.980 --> 00:36:53.710
you have to look at the
individual type of extreme weather.
00:36:53.710 --> 00:36:56.890
For rainfall probably yes.
00:36:56.890 --> 00:37:00.023
For temperature, probably no,
00:37:01.560 --> 00:37:05.893
because, well, for example,
00:37:07.981 --> 00:37:09.700
our extreme cold temperatures
00:37:09.700 --> 00:37:12.560
come when we get cold air from Canada
00:37:12.560 --> 00:37:14.070
and from the Arctic.
00:37:14.070 --> 00:37:15.948
And the Arctic is warming faster
00:37:15.948 --> 00:37:18.710
than the rest of the planet is.
00:37:18.710 --> 00:37:22.230
So when we do get the
occasional cold air outbreak,
00:37:22.230 --> 00:37:24.707
and we get weather patterns
that bring the air down,
00:37:24.707 --> 00:37:27.450
and we actually shouldn't
expect those temperatures
00:37:27.450 --> 00:37:31.270
to be as cold as they would have been
00:37:31.270 --> 00:37:33.270
in the past necessarily.
00:37:33.270 --> 00:37:38.270
So I don't recommend factoring
in increases of extremes,
00:37:44.820 --> 00:37:45.690
just in general,
00:37:45.690 --> 00:37:47.910
let's say the weather is
becoming less predictable.
00:37:47.910 --> 00:37:50.366
On the other hand,
00:37:50.366 --> 00:37:52.750
given the fact that we don't
know what's gonna happen
00:37:52.750 --> 00:37:53.583
with the climate,
00:37:53.583 --> 00:37:55.300
and given we have a limited record,
00:37:55.300 --> 00:38:00.300
it can be prudent to allow
for bigger margins of air
00:38:00.570 --> 00:38:03.640
and say, okay, well,
this is what the trend
00:38:03.640 --> 00:38:04.909
is based on the data,
00:38:04.909 --> 00:38:06.850
that may not be what
the actual trend is.
00:38:06.850 --> 00:38:10.003
So we'll allow for a little
extra leeway to be safe.
00:38:12.000 --> 00:38:13.930
There was the important
follow-up element of that Lori
00:38:13.930 --> 00:38:17.463
and that the follow-up question
is what do we do about it?
00:38:19.850 --> 00:38:23.023
You mentioned earlier the
heavier rainfall, you know,
00:38:24.421 --> 00:38:28.270
heavy rainfall, lower
flows to the extent
00:38:28.270 --> 00:38:29.310
a lot of power generation,
00:38:29.310 --> 00:38:32.760
Texas requires adequate access to water
00:38:32.760 --> 00:38:34.860
that's a challenge,
00:38:34.860 --> 00:38:39.720
but that's also why we
build reservoirs to mitigate
00:38:39.720 --> 00:38:44.190
that variability we've been
doing it for a hundred years.
00:38:44.190 --> 00:38:47.260
So we wanna make sure we keep in mind,
00:38:47.260 --> 00:38:52.073
not only the calculus we
have to do on the weather front,
00:38:52.940 --> 00:38:56.210
but also how we mitigate it.
00:38:56.210 --> 00:39:00.750
So set up access to
reliable water is a factor
00:39:02.110 --> 00:39:06.120
in any power generation
resource that needs.
00:39:06.120 --> 00:39:07.960
Yeah, it's really important.
00:39:07.960 --> 00:39:10.540
So if you take a couple
of the doctor's charts,
00:39:10.540 --> 00:39:13.000
if we're looking at (clears
throat) Abilene 24 hour
00:39:13.000 --> 00:39:14.840
lowest average temperature,
00:39:14.840 --> 00:39:19.840
1989 in URI settle out
at the 98th percentile.
00:39:20.930 --> 00:39:24.303
So in terms of the proposed staff rule,
00:39:25.870 --> 00:39:26.983
that's black start.
00:39:28.230 --> 00:39:30.480
So that's what they
have to harden to is URI.
00:39:33.060 --> 00:39:34.333
Under Dr. Game's panel.
00:39:35.557 --> 00:39:39.600
And if I could add to
Chairman Lakes statement
00:39:39.600 --> 00:39:40.433
about the water,
00:39:40.433 --> 00:39:42.200
I think we did learn a lot during 2011
00:39:42.200 --> 00:39:45.357
in that drought season that we had.
00:39:45.357 --> 00:39:46.830
And I think as a result of that,
00:39:46.830 --> 00:39:49.580
ERCOT started requiring
some of the gas plants,
00:39:49.580 --> 00:39:52.430
well, the plants that
require water to show
00:39:54.360 --> 00:39:56.480
certificates of water rights to be able
00:39:56.480 --> 00:39:58.930
to be included in the CDR.
00:39:58.930 --> 00:40:01.825
So I think as a result
of the 2011 drought
00:40:01.825 --> 00:40:02.658
ERCOT has taken action,
00:40:02.658 --> 00:40:04.310
the state has taken action,
00:40:04.310 --> 00:40:09.310
certainly, so we are prepared
for drought conditions.
00:40:11.572 --> 00:40:14.150
What we're here today
is to kind of look at,
00:40:14.150 --> 00:40:17.053
you know, cold
(chuckles) and some hotter,
00:40:18.330 --> 00:40:21.340
but I'm just kinda
curious about how all that,
00:40:21.340 --> 00:40:25.100
you know, I'm not a
statistician, (laughs)
00:40:25.100 --> 00:40:28.800
and I'm just trying to figure
out how it all gets baked in,
00:40:28.800 --> 00:40:31.193
to your sort of forward look.
00:40:32.700 --> 00:40:33.533
Yeah.
00:40:33.533 --> 00:40:36.063
So I found that Texans in general
00:40:42.250 --> 00:40:46.530
are more trusting of data than models.
00:40:46.530 --> 00:40:48.930
Although anytime you're
estimating probabilities,
00:40:48.930 --> 00:40:51.210
you're applying a
statistical model anyhow,
00:40:51.210 --> 00:40:53.183
so you really can't get away from it.
00:40:54.610 --> 00:40:59.610
So the standard approach
is to do the best you can
00:41:00.940 --> 00:41:02.150
with the historical observation
00:41:02.150 --> 00:41:05.283
and historical incidents that happened.
00:41:05.283 --> 00:41:09.360
It is also possible to factor
in what do climate models
00:41:09.360 --> 00:41:10.510
say should be happening?
00:41:10.510 --> 00:41:13.600
And frankly, I wouldn't
rely on historical data
00:41:13.600 --> 00:41:15.302
if the climate models were dramatically
00:41:15.302 --> 00:41:17.019
inconsistent with it,
00:41:17.019 --> 00:41:18.910
but it turns out for this sort of thing,
00:41:18.910 --> 00:41:20.060
they are fairly consistent.
00:41:20.060 --> 00:41:24.580
So we can rely just on the observations,
00:41:24.580 --> 00:41:25.930
if that's the desired path.
00:41:29.770 --> 00:41:33.223
I'm gonna wrap up by just giving some,
00:41:34.340 --> 00:41:36.520
put the event of 2021 in perspective.
00:41:36.520 --> 00:41:37.710
As you heard from Chris,
00:41:37.710 --> 00:41:39.250
it was one of the top fives,
00:41:39.250 --> 00:41:41.797
and this is six different
ways of slicing and dicing it.
00:41:41.797 --> 00:41:43.870
And one day minimum temperature,
00:41:43.870 --> 00:41:45.743
one day maximum
pressure, one day average,
00:41:45.743 --> 00:41:47.780
and the same things over seven days.
00:41:47.780 --> 00:41:49.910
And you see the same sets of years
00:41:49.910 --> 00:41:51.660
showing up again and again in this.
00:41:53.380 --> 00:41:55.740
But if you have also noted
on the previous slides,
00:41:55.740 --> 00:41:57.540
it wasn't the coldest ever.
00:41:57.540 --> 00:42:00.630
And actually, it's a good
thing we're not Oklahoma.
00:42:00.630 --> 00:42:04.060
Oklahoma actually had its
coldest event ever in 2021,
00:42:04.060 --> 00:42:05.760
which was quite dramatic for them.
00:42:09.010 --> 00:42:14.010
And a second thing I
wanna point out is that,
00:42:14.590 --> 00:42:19.410
when we have the grid
problems early on February 15,
00:42:19.410 --> 00:42:21.840
we were actually still in
the middle of this event
00:42:21.840 --> 00:42:24.512
so that the seven day
average temperature,
00:42:24.512 --> 00:42:27.453
we corresponded to
that red circle there,
00:42:28.910 --> 00:42:31.430
and things had already gone south
00:42:31.430 --> 00:42:36.170
as it were before we had
the coldest temperatures
00:42:36.170 --> 00:42:37.330
of the event.
00:42:37.330 --> 00:42:40.460
So while meteorologists
and climatologists
00:42:40.460 --> 00:42:42.510
like to talk about how
severe the event was,
00:42:42.510 --> 00:42:45.310
in terms of the worst part of it,
00:42:45.310 --> 00:42:48.920
that may not be the relevant
benchmark for the PUC
00:42:48.920 --> 00:42:49.820
to be considering.
00:42:51.640 --> 00:42:54.830
And lastly, for the most part,
00:42:54.830 --> 00:42:56.910
because we haven't
cranked out all the data yet,
00:42:56.910 --> 00:42:58.210
we've been talking about temperatures,
00:42:58.210 --> 00:43:00.930
but also the precipitation matters.
00:43:00.930 --> 00:43:02.650
Obviously, directly for wind turbines,
00:43:02.650 --> 00:43:05.920
but also it affects the heat
loss from other facilities
00:43:05.920 --> 00:43:07.740
that are exposed to the weather.
00:43:07.740 --> 00:43:11.980
And these are the four
most widespread snowstorms
00:43:11.980 --> 00:43:15.580
in Texas history, as
best as we can tell.
00:43:15.580 --> 00:43:18.130
And 1895 is one of them.
00:43:18.130 --> 00:43:19.660
There's not very many dust,
00:43:19.660 --> 00:43:21.980
'cause there weren't very many stations.
00:43:21.980 --> 00:43:25.210
But 2021 was also in that set.
00:43:25.210 --> 00:43:29.120
So the combination of extreme cold
00:43:29.120 --> 00:43:32.310
and widespread frozen precipitation
00:43:32.310 --> 00:43:36.630
does make 2021 rather unusual,
00:43:36.630 --> 00:43:39.403
but not unprecedented
perhaps in the record.
00:43:40.980 --> 00:43:44.180
So just wanna thank some
of the students at ANM
00:43:44.180 --> 00:43:45.450
who helped with this analysis.
00:43:45.450 --> 00:43:48.060
And I'll be happy to answer
any other questions you have.
00:43:49.550 --> 00:43:50.383
Thank you, sir.
00:43:50.383 --> 00:43:51.831
Any other questions?
00:43:51.831 --> 00:43:52.730
Yes, sir.
00:43:52.730 --> 00:43:53.610
One follow up question.
00:43:53.610 --> 00:43:55.853
We've talked several
times about making sure
00:43:55.853 --> 00:44:00.113
that we have quality
data just out of curiosity,
00:44:00.970 --> 00:44:03.620
and some datasets
are paid for presumably
00:44:03.620 --> 00:44:05.618
the higher quality ones.
00:44:05.618 --> 00:44:10.618
How do we ensure quality
data from the 1890s, the 1920s,
00:44:12.060 --> 00:44:14.380
or how would you scrub that data?
00:44:14.380 --> 00:44:15.850
You know, how do you say it?
00:44:15.850 --> 00:44:16.683
Sure.
00:44:17.570 --> 00:44:19.700
So, yeah, I don't pay for my data.
00:44:19.700 --> 00:44:21.270
I get it directly from the source,
00:44:21.270 --> 00:44:24.343
because I can address
all the issues with it.
00:44:25.940 --> 00:44:30.113
The issues that arise are missing data,
00:44:31.400 --> 00:44:34.095
and that can affect, you know,
00:44:34.095 --> 00:44:35.610
if you have an extreme
event that's missing,
00:44:35.610 --> 00:44:37.630
it'll affect your
assessment of probability.
00:44:37.630 --> 00:44:42.130
So the way that can be
filled in is by comparing events
00:44:42.130 --> 00:44:44.410
where you actually have
data at nearby stations
00:44:44.410 --> 00:44:47.860
and making an estimate of what
would've been the temperature
00:44:47.860 --> 00:44:48.693
back then?
00:44:50.340 --> 00:44:51.450
For estimating trends,
00:44:51.450 --> 00:44:54.700
you have to be careful about
when the observations were made
00:44:54.700 --> 00:44:58.313
because daily observations
made in the morning
00:44:58.313 --> 00:45:02.370
will give you different
frequencies of high
00:45:02.370 --> 00:45:03.693
and cold extremes,
00:45:04.720 --> 00:45:06.890
than daily observations
made in the afternoon.
00:45:06.890 --> 00:45:09.590
And that'll take a minute
and a half to explain.
00:45:09.590 --> 00:45:11.378
So I'll just leave it at that.
00:45:11.378 --> 00:45:15.070
And then also observation
practices before 1897
00:45:15.070 --> 00:45:16.210
were a bit different.
00:45:16.210 --> 00:45:20.620
And so for trends, you have to deal
00:45:20.620 --> 00:45:22.983
with those sorts of issues.
00:45:24.260 --> 00:45:28.730
But the big issue for
hourly observations
00:45:28.730 --> 00:45:30.080
as they only go back to the 1940s.
00:45:30.080 --> 00:45:32.800
So the way I would approach that is,
00:45:32.800 --> 00:45:34.630
there's gotta be a
pretty strong correlation
00:45:34.630 --> 00:45:37.050
between what we see with
hourly data, what was the daily?
00:45:37.050 --> 00:45:38.470
So we can use the period of time
00:45:38.470 --> 00:45:43.360
where we have hourly data
to estimate at a given station
00:45:43.360 --> 00:45:45.077
the relationship between
what the early data shows
00:45:45.077 --> 00:45:47.500
and what the daily data shows,
00:45:47.500 --> 00:45:49.330
and then use that same relationship
00:45:49.330 --> 00:45:53.180
to estimate conditions
farther back in time.
00:45:53.180 --> 00:45:54.910
So those are the main issues that arise,
00:45:54.910 --> 00:45:56.713
and those are the ways
we're dealing with them.
00:45:58.225 --> 00:45:59.541
Thank you.
00:45:59.541 --> 00:46:02.500
If you don't mind
make one comment
00:46:02.500 --> 00:46:04.080
based on what John said.
00:46:04.080 --> 00:46:05.020
That I thought was interesting
00:46:05.020 --> 00:46:06.410
and probably should be reemphasized
00:46:07.379 --> 00:46:10.250
is you take that our February event.
00:46:10.250 --> 00:46:14.340
And if you recall, especially locally,
00:46:14.340 --> 00:46:16.300
it was Sunday, the 14th.
00:46:16.300 --> 00:46:18.080
If I remember is when conditions started
00:46:18.080 --> 00:46:20.120
to get really bad locally.
00:46:20.120 --> 00:46:23.280
And they had been going
on in West Texas in particular
00:46:23.280 --> 00:46:25.400
freezing rain, freezing drizzle,
00:46:25.400 --> 00:46:28.490
cold temperatures had already
set the stage for a few days
00:46:28.490 --> 00:46:29.800
prior to that.
00:46:29.800 --> 00:46:32.446
And it was Sunday night
into Monday morning
00:46:32.446 --> 00:46:35.253
when we started losing the generation.
00:46:36.172 --> 00:46:38.210
And the coldest
temperature was actually,
00:46:38.210 --> 00:46:39.710
I believe it was Tuesday morning.
00:46:39.710 --> 00:46:41.940
Is that right, John, the 16th?
00:46:41.940 --> 00:46:44.660
Yeah, about 40% of the
state was cold as Monday,
00:46:44.660 --> 00:46:46.640
but majority of the state
was cold on Tuesday.
00:46:46.640 --> 00:46:47.473
Yeah, yeah.
00:46:47.473 --> 00:46:49.320
So as he mentioned,
00:46:49.320 --> 00:46:53.770
we had already gone through
extreme enough weather
00:46:54.660 --> 00:46:58.394
to lose the generation and
set the stage for everything
00:46:58.394 --> 00:47:00.930
before we actually hit
our coldest temperature.
00:47:00.930 --> 00:47:03.010
So I think that's kind
of interesting to note.
00:47:03.010 --> 00:47:04.130
Really important to note.
00:47:04.130 --> 00:47:05.755
Yeah, yeah.
00:47:05.755 --> 00:47:06.588
Thank you, Chris.
00:47:06.588 --> 00:47:07.421
Thank you.
00:47:07.421 --> 00:47:08.254
Thank you.
00:47:08.254 --> 00:47:10.330
And of course, we'll welcome
our newest Commissioner,
00:47:10.330 --> 00:47:11.681
Jimmy Glotfelty.
00:47:11.681 --> 00:47:12.514
Thank you.
00:47:12.514 --> 00:47:13.347
Welcome.
00:47:15.490 --> 00:47:17.590
At this point, we'll
call up Center Point.
00:47:35.497 --> 00:47:37.914
(indistinct)
00:47:48.140 --> 00:47:49.610
Good morning, chairman
and Commissioners.
00:47:49.610 --> 00:47:51.060
My name is Keith Wall.
00:47:51.060 --> 00:47:53.960
I'm Director of Regulatory
Affairs for Center Point Energy,
00:47:53.960 --> 00:47:55.330
and I've got Jamie Herdocia,
00:47:55.330 --> 00:47:58.410
our Director of
Engineering with me today.
00:47:58.410 --> 00:47:59.243
Welcome.
00:47:59.243 --> 00:48:00.880
As you know, Center
Point is a combined gas
00:48:00.880 --> 00:48:02.790
and electric utility.
00:48:02.790 --> 00:48:06.090
In Texas, we serve 2.6 million customers
00:48:06.090 --> 00:48:07.990
in the Greater Houston area.
00:48:07.990 --> 00:48:09.130
And on the gas side,
00:48:09.130 --> 00:48:13.150
we serve approximately
1.8 million customers
00:48:13.150 --> 00:48:16.470
from Marshall, Texas down
through Southeast Texas
00:48:16.470 --> 00:48:19.390
through Houston down to South Texas
00:48:19.390 --> 00:48:22.033
and the Laredo area.
00:48:23.060 --> 00:48:24.640
Today, we kind of
wanted to talk to you all
00:48:24.640 --> 00:48:28.720
about the life cycle of
the natural gas industry
00:48:28.720 --> 00:48:31.760
from a Wellhead to Burner-Tip.
00:48:31.760 --> 00:48:34.583
As you can see on
the graph in front of you,
00:48:35.432 --> 00:48:39.193
the gas is generated through gas wells,
00:48:40.300 --> 00:48:42.623
you know those are our
producers in the state.
00:48:43.974 --> 00:48:47.220
The gas is then, you know,
flows into gathering lines
00:48:47.220 --> 00:48:50.410
to a processing plant
where the gas is cleaned up.
00:48:50.410 --> 00:48:52.160
Take a lot of the liquids out of the gas
00:48:52.160 --> 00:48:54.730
to get pipeline quality gas.
00:48:54.730 --> 00:48:58.280
Then it goes into the
major pipelines in the state
00:48:59.350 --> 00:49:03.640
where gas from there can
serve agricultural needs,
00:49:03.640 --> 00:49:06.440
it serves the generators themselves.
00:49:06.440 --> 00:49:08.500
We can put gas in the storage,
00:49:08.500 --> 00:49:12.780
or it can go into the
local distribution system,
00:49:12.780 --> 00:49:13.800
the city gate.
00:49:13.800 --> 00:49:16.230
So kind of make an equivalent comparison
00:49:16.230 --> 00:49:17.610
on the electric side,
00:49:17.610 --> 00:49:20.633
the wellhead and the processing
plant on the electric side,
00:49:20.633 --> 00:49:23.140
it's kinda like a generator.
00:49:23.140 --> 00:49:25.820
Then the major pipeline is
kinda like transmission lines.
00:49:25.820 --> 00:49:28.040
And when you get down to the city gate,
00:49:28.040 --> 00:49:31.680
that's kinda like a substation
where Center Point Electric
00:49:31.680 --> 00:49:34.773
would take it at the sub station
00:49:38.100 --> 00:49:42.750
and step down voltage to
serve the local customers
00:49:42.750 --> 00:49:45.140
off the distribution
system on the electric side.
00:49:45.140 --> 00:49:48.170
Is that always going to
be qualified as an LDC
00:49:48.170 --> 00:49:49.100
at that city gate?
00:49:49.100 --> 00:49:51.250
The LDC is the yellow part,
00:49:51.250 --> 00:49:53.950
and that's the part of the gas system
00:49:53.950 --> 00:49:57.660
that Center Point owns and operates.
00:49:57.660 --> 00:50:02.660
Do all LDCs have
fuel storage or?
00:50:03.300 --> 00:50:04.270
For the most part,
00:50:04.270 --> 00:50:05.630
all of the major ones are,
00:50:05.630 --> 00:50:09.000
some of the smaller LDCs
00:50:09.000 --> 00:50:11.760
or local distribution companies
might be small enough
00:50:11.760 --> 00:50:15.750
where they just don't
have the need for storage.
00:50:15.750 --> 00:50:19.430
But I would say Center Point,
Texas gas service and Atmos,
00:50:19.430 --> 00:50:23.860
we all have had storage that
we can draw on for our systems.
00:50:23.860 --> 00:50:25.710
Is there an
industry best practice
00:50:25.710 --> 00:50:28.990
that sets that capacity of fuel storage,
00:50:28.990 --> 00:50:31.460
on-site fuel storage for LDCs?
00:50:31.460 --> 00:50:34.603
I think that's
just an individual
00:50:34.603 --> 00:50:37.553
company by company decision
on how they manage that.
00:50:37.553 --> 00:50:41.123
Okay.
00:50:41.123 --> 00:50:43.840
Outside the LDCs
just broadly speaking,
00:50:43.840 --> 00:50:47.100
you have a sense of how
much total natural gas storage
00:50:47.100 --> 00:50:48.200
there is in the state?
00:50:50.170 --> 00:50:51.003
I do not.
00:50:51.003 --> 00:50:51.836
I don't have that.
00:50:51.836 --> 00:50:52.669
Okay.
Sorry.
00:50:53.906 --> 00:50:56.430
My memory is not perfect,
but I remember it to be,
00:50:56.430 --> 00:50:58.313
I've been told multiple BCFs.
00:50:59.740 --> 00:51:01.400
Substantial amount of storage.
00:51:01.400 --> 00:51:02.233
Correct.
00:51:02.233 --> 00:51:04.560
Relative to daily BCF use.
00:51:04.560 --> 00:51:06.560
And so this is
kind of like I said,
00:51:06.560 --> 00:51:07.520
the stuff in the yellow,
00:51:07.520 --> 00:51:10.650
the city gate or
equivalent like a substation,
00:51:10.650 --> 00:51:14.510
that's where we take delivery
of gas from our suppliers,
00:51:14.510 --> 00:51:18.640
and then we'll deliver that
to our end use customers,
00:51:18.640 --> 00:51:20.490
which the majority of those customers
00:51:20.490 --> 00:51:23.945
are gonna be residential and
small commercial customers.
00:51:23.945 --> 00:51:26.990
Like I said earlier,
as far as power plants,
00:51:26.990 --> 00:51:29.300
those are served directly
off the pipelines Center Point
00:51:29.300 --> 00:51:33.750
doesn't supply any of the
big generators in the state.
00:51:33.750 --> 00:51:36.580
So let's talk about
distributed generation.
00:51:36.580 --> 00:51:37.413
Okay.
00:51:37.413 --> 00:51:41.870
So small gas
generators that happened
00:51:43.100 --> 00:51:45.533
to be behind grocery
stores-- Correct.
00:51:45.533 --> 00:51:46.366
Or something.
00:51:46.366 --> 00:51:47.325
Right.
00:51:47.325 --> 00:51:48.837
That are taking gas at the LDC.
00:51:51.070 --> 00:51:56.070
How insulated are they within
your system from curtailment?
00:52:01.580 --> 00:52:04.970
Very similar to any of
the rest of our customers.
00:52:04.970 --> 00:52:09.390
You know, if they're on
our firm's service tariff,
00:52:09.390 --> 00:52:13.380
they're up there with reliability
00:52:13.380 --> 00:52:15.630
just like any other
customer on the system.
00:52:15.630 --> 00:52:17.290
I know during the storm,
00:52:17.290 --> 00:52:20.750
we made sure that
we were able to get gas
00:52:20.750 --> 00:52:22.690
to those small micro grids
00:52:22.690 --> 00:52:26.860
so they could in turn
keep power at that area
00:52:26.860 --> 00:52:28.660
and put some power back on the grid.
00:52:29.730 --> 00:52:30.563
Okay.
00:52:30.563 --> 00:52:33.350
And for your system,
00:52:33.350 --> 00:52:36.640
do you have a weather
related target already
00:52:36.640 --> 00:52:39.800
that you maintain enough fuel reserves
00:52:39.800 --> 00:52:44.800
to withstand any type of
percentile metric that you use?
00:52:46.140 --> 00:52:46.973
What we try to do--
00:52:46.973 --> 00:52:48.870
'Cause again, you're
subject to hurricanes more
00:52:48.870 --> 00:52:50.350
in Center Point service area,
00:52:50.350 --> 00:52:52.340
Atmos will have freezes but.
00:52:52.340 --> 00:52:53.334
Right.
00:52:53.334 --> 00:52:54.167
(indistinct)
00:52:54.167 --> 00:52:55.000
Right.
00:52:55.000 --> 00:52:57.890
We do when we're
contracting for our gas supplies,
00:52:57.890 --> 00:53:00.850
you know, we'll look at
what normal weather is,
00:53:00.850 --> 00:53:04.253
and ensure that we have
enough gas on that normal,
00:53:05.430 --> 00:53:08.940
you know, a normal winter
day to serve all of our customers.
00:53:08.940 --> 00:53:13.660
We have firm contracts
on our transportation deals
00:53:13.660 --> 00:53:17.160
with the big pipes to ensure
that we can have gas delivered
00:53:17.160 --> 00:53:18.987
on the coldest day of the year.
00:53:18.987 --> 00:53:19.820
Okay.
00:53:19.820 --> 00:53:22.240
We might have to go
out on the daily market
00:53:22.240 --> 00:53:24.340
if it gets really cold to buy gas
00:53:24.340 --> 00:53:26.930
to make sure we can
vapour put it in the pipeline,
00:53:26.930 --> 00:53:29.180
but we've got those
types of contracts in place
00:53:29.180 --> 00:53:34.180
that we can call on in those
extreme weather situations.
00:53:34.760 --> 00:53:36.000
Okay.
00:53:36.000 --> 00:53:39.650
Those from contracts
typically are presumably
00:53:39.650 --> 00:53:41.930
have force majeure clauses.
00:53:41.930 --> 00:53:43.143
Yes, absolutely.
00:53:48.750 --> 00:53:49.740
Keep going.
00:53:49.740 --> 00:53:53.900
That's kind of what
we had prepared today
00:53:53.900 --> 00:53:55.920
and didn't know if y'all
had any more questions.
00:53:55.920 --> 00:53:58.630
Happy to discuss what
we do to weatherize
00:53:58.630 --> 00:54:02.937
the system on the distribution
system behind that city gate,
00:54:02.937 --> 00:54:06.654
if that's helpful.
00:54:06.654 --> 00:54:07.487
If you don't mind,
00:54:07.487 --> 00:54:12.487
I'd like to explore that the
firm gas contract framework
00:54:13.790 --> 00:54:15.430
a little bit more.
00:54:15.430 --> 00:54:19.200
Do y'all have see a
difference in consistency of,
00:54:19.200 --> 00:54:22.250
or reliability of that firmed gassed
00:54:22.250 --> 00:54:26.380
between intrastate pipelines
and interstate pipelines?
00:54:26.380 --> 00:54:27.700
No, not really.
00:54:27.700 --> 00:54:31.150
I mean, again, the way
we've contracted for our gas,
00:54:31.150 --> 00:54:34.457
which a lot of it is intrastate gas,
00:54:34.457 --> 00:54:39.310
but we do have some
interstate on our system as well.
00:54:39.310 --> 00:54:42.430
But again, we've contracted
to have the capacity
00:54:42.430 --> 00:54:45.010
that we need on the
coldest day of the year.
00:54:45.010 --> 00:54:49.660
Center Point does serve
some interruptable customers.
00:54:49.660 --> 00:54:52.700
And if those customers
are interruptable,
00:54:52.700 --> 00:54:56.670
they got curtailed in
this recent winter event.
00:54:56.670 --> 00:54:57.503
Sure.
00:54:57.503 --> 00:55:00.260
So but there's still that
force majeure provision?
00:55:00.260 --> 00:55:01.093
Absolutely.
00:55:01.093 --> 00:55:02.670
That could
disrupt the delivery.
00:55:02.670 --> 00:55:03.503
Right.
00:55:03.503 --> 00:55:04.336
(indistinct)
00:55:04.336 --> 00:55:05.799
If there's an act of God,
00:55:05.799 --> 00:55:06.890
there's really nothing we
can do or anybody else
00:55:06.890 --> 00:55:08.530
at that point.
00:55:08.530 --> 00:55:09.363
Okay.
00:55:09.363 --> 00:55:11.270
I mean, that's an important distinction.
00:55:11.270 --> 00:55:12.103
Please.
00:55:12.103 --> 00:55:12.936
Oh, we're sorry.
00:55:12.936 --> 00:55:14.783
And the force
majeure provisions.
00:55:15.760 --> 00:55:20.160
How did those from contract
force majeure provisions
00:55:20.160 --> 00:55:22.963
impact you during the February storm?
00:55:24.839 --> 00:55:27.140
I'm not aware of any
force majeure claims
00:55:27.140 --> 00:55:28.750
that we had during the storm.
00:55:28.750 --> 00:55:29.583
Right.
00:55:29.583 --> 00:55:31.490
If we had some that were very few.
00:55:31.490 --> 00:55:34.270
Again, we had the pipeline capacity,
00:55:34.270 --> 00:55:36.280
the gas was delivered.
00:55:36.280 --> 00:55:39.330
Our system held up
well during the storm.
00:55:39.330 --> 00:55:42.360
The systems overall in
the state for the most part
00:55:42.360 --> 00:55:43.563
held up,
00:55:44.700 --> 00:55:47.657
is getting gas to the local distribution
00:55:47.657 --> 00:55:50.460
and a residential and small commercial
00:55:50.460 --> 00:55:52.140
human needs type customers.
00:55:52.140 --> 00:55:55.900
And those types of
customers are prioritize via,
00:55:55.900 --> 00:55:57.300
there are Commissions rules, right?
00:55:57.300 --> 00:55:58.133
Correct.
00:55:59.300 --> 00:56:00.133
That's what I'm saying,
00:56:00.133 --> 00:56:02.150
the customers that we
had behind our city gate,
00:56:02.150 --> 00:56:03.490
they were interruptible.
00:56:03.490 --> 00:56:04.650
We did call on them,
00:56:04.650 --> 00:56:07.260
tell them that they
needed to stop taking gas
00:56:07.260 --> 00:56:11.350
because there was
gonna be issues with gas.
00:56:11.350 --> 00:56:15.010
And so we were able to
curtail those for roughly a week
00:56:15.010 --> 00:56:17.505
or so while it was--
00:56:17.505 --> 00:56:19.790
What types of customers
were those mainly?
00:56:19.790 --> 00:56:22.340
It could be manufacturers,
00:56:22.340 --> 00:56:25.700
it could be a customer that
uses gas for their processing.
00:56:25.700 --> 00:56:29.720
I know one of the customers
that's an interruptible customer
00:56:29.720 --> 00:56:34.100
was a trash truck company
that used natural gas
00:56:34.100 --> 00:56:36.770
for their trash trucks and stuff.
00:56:36.770 --> 00:56:38.790
So there's a very types of customers
00:56:38.790 --> 00:56:41.880
that would be interruptible
00:56:41.880 --> 00:56:43.240
and want that interruptable service
00:56:43.240 --> 00:56:45.993
as opposed to the higher from service.
00:56:47.386 --> 00:56:50.053
Do you compensate those
interruptible customers?
00:56:53.020 --> 00:56:56.160
Well, I mean,
compensating them, no.
00:56:56.160 --> 00:57:00.420
They have a cheaper rate from us
00:57:00.420 --> 00:57:03.070
because they are
interruptable and not firm.
00:57:03.070 --> 00:57:03.903
Okay.
00:57:03.903 --> 00:57:07.040
So if you sign up to be
an interruptible customer,
00:57:07.040 --> 00:57:09.060
you get a lower rate?
00:57:09.060 --> 00:57:10.180
So there's some benefit there?
00:57:10.180 --> 00:57:11.087
Right, correct.
00:57:11.087 --> 00:57:11.920
Yes.
00:57:11.920 --> 00:57:13.460
Okay.
00:57:13.460 --> 00:57:18.313
Dovetailing on the DG
customers that you see.
00:57:19.410 --> 00:57:23.130
In the gas world, do
they aggregate their bills?
00:57:23.130 --> 00:57:27.590
Do they bundle their
connections with your services
00:57:27.590 --> 00:57:29.340
to get an aggregated rate?
00:57:29.340 --> 00:57:30.860
How do you account for them?
00:57:30.860 --> 00:57:32.687
They're on our standard--
00:57:33.810 --> 00:57:35.300
Meter, just one meter.
00:57:35.300 --> 00:57:36.780
Correct, yeah.
00:57:36.780 --> 00:57:40.080
I don't believe we're bundling
their accounts together.
00:57:40.080 --> 00:57:41.500
And so they've got a
meter at each location
00:57:41.500 --> 00:57:45.963
and they're on the standard
rate of any commercial customer.
00:57:47.630 --> 00:57:49.560
So in the future
when we account
00:57:49.560 --> 00:57:52.780
for large-scale DG interconnections
00:57:53.640 --> 00:57:57.490
on the supply chain side,
they're on an individual basis.
00:57:57.490 --> 00:58:01.410
So there'll be accounted for
on the gas system individually.
00:58:01.410 --> 00:58:02.270
Yes, sir.
00:58:02.270 --> 00:58:03.340
Okay.
00:58:03.340 --> 00:58:04.640
That's my understanding.
00:58:08.971 --> 00:58:09.804
Okay.
00:58:09.804 --> 00:58:10.637
Thank you.
00:58:10.637 --> 00:58:12.137
Okay, thank you.
00:58:18.460 --> 00:58:20.800
Next up is Calpine, I believe.
00:58:27.910 --> 00:58:28.743
Thank you.
00:58:37.920 --> 00:58:39.280
Good morning, everyone.
00:58:39.280 --> 00:58:40.113
Welcome.
00:58:40.113 --> 00:58:42.040
It's good to be here and
thank you for having me.
00:58:42.040 --> 00:58:44.411
Before I start this presentation,
00:58:44.411 --> 00:58:47.560
we put this together really as a primmer
00:58:47.560 --> 00:58:51.050
on how we approach
winterization every year.
00:58:51.050 --> 00:58:52.940
And so I'll go through those details,
00:58:52.940 --> 00:58:56.950
but I wanna talk a little
bit about our fleet in Texas.
00:58:56.950 --> 00:59:00.080
We have 12 combined
cycle plants here in the state,
00:59:00.080 --> 00:59:03.990
and six of them are in and
around the Houston area,
00:59:03.990 --> 00:59:06.605
three are in what you
would consider South Texas,
00:59:06.605 --> 00:59:09.060
and the other three are Central Inland.
00:59:09.060 --> 00:59:12.713
And so kind of a geographic
diversity for the state.
00:59:13.560 --> 00:59:16.820
Our plants have a design
basis that they were built with,
00:59:16.820 --> 00:59:18.630
in terms of what type of winterization
00:59:18.630 --> 00:59:20.760
they were prepared for?
00:59:20.760 --> 00:59:25.400
And it ranges from zero
degrees to 28 degrees
00:59:25.400 --> 00:59:27.850
as a design minimum temperature.
00:59:27.850 --> 00:59:30.650
So they're not all the same.
00:59:30.650 --> 00:59:34.230
And it really is dependent on
where they're geographically
00:59:34.230 --> 00:59:35.113
located.
00:59:36.380 --> 00:59:40.050
Our oldest plant was built in 1990,
00:59:40.050 --> 00:59:43.640
so we missed the 1989 event.
00:59:43.640 --> 00:59:46.583
However, we were
around in the 2011 event.
00:59:47.540 --> 00:59:51.000
And during that time
period, I was not here.
00:59:51.000 --> 00:59:53.070
I'm relatively new to Calpine.
00:59:53.070 --> 00:59:54.310
But during that time period,
00:59:54.310 --> 00:59:57.880
my understanding as the
temperature got into the tins,
00:59:57.880 --> 00:59:59.237
so less than 24 hours.
00:59:59.237 --> 01:00:01.030
And of course there
were wind conditions.
01:00:01.030 --> 01:00:06.030
And at that time, our fleet
experienced freezing issues.
01:00:06.070 --> 01:00:07.688
The point I'm trying to make here
01:00:07.688 --> 01:00:09.790
is that we have a design basis,
01:00:09.790 --> 01:00:14.070
but a lot of what we do with
winterization is experiential.
01:00:14.070 --> 01:00:16.090
In other words, we go after the things
01:00:16.090 --> 01:00:19.230
we know we had
vulnerabilities on and correct.
01:00:19.230 --> 01:00:23.270
So we harden our system
to the 2011 experience
01:00:23.270 --> 01:00:26.190
going into the 2021 experience.
01:00:26.190 --> 01:00:28.150
We're doing the exact
same thing this year,
01:00:28.150 --> 01:00:33.150
we're taking into account what
type of issues we saw in 2021
01:00:33.195 --> 01:00:34.710
and our planning for them,
01:00:34.710 --> 01:00:38.020
and hope to have them
ready for the winter 2022.
01:00:38.020 --> 01:00:39.650
I just wanted to put that out there
01:00:39.650 --> 01:00:41.830
in terms of how we approach this.
01:00:41.830 --> 01:00:42.820
I appreciate that.
01:00:42.820 --> 01:00:43.770
Okay.
01:00:43.770 --> 01:00:46.540
So I'm gonna go to our first slide
01:00:46.540 --> 01:00:48.950
and this is not an advertisement.
01:00:48.950 --> 01:00:50.290
It's just who we are.
01:00:50.290 --> 01:00:52.300
Okay, we're an
independent power producer.
01:00:52.300 --> 01:00:56.740
We have about 26,000
megawatts, primarily gas fired.
01:00:56.740 --> 01:00:58.730
In fact, all the gas fired.
01:00:58.730 --> 01:01:01.710
We do have some
geothermal energy in California,
01:01:01.710 --> 01:01:03.730
which is considered renewable,
01:01:03.730 --> 01:01:07.140
but we're spread out
and geographic areas
01:01:07.140 --> 01:01:09.780
that have highly competitive markets.
01:01:09.780 --> 01:01:13.330
So of course we have
the Texas fleet in ERCOT
01:01:13.330 --> 01:01:15.520
and that's about 9,000 megawatts.
01:01:15.520 --> 01:01:18.360
Where in California, we
have about 9,300 megawatts
01:01:18.360 --> 01:01:19.730
in California.
01:01:19.730 --> 01:01:22.020
And then in the New Jersey,
01:01:22.020 --> 01:01:25.560
well, in the PJM, New
York and New England ISOs,
01:01:25.560 --> 01:01:29.230
we have another 9300
megawatts of generation.
01:01:29.230 --> 01:01:31.687
And we operate these.
01:01:31.687 --> 01:01:34.590
The plants in New England,
as you can well imagine
01:01:34.590 --> 01:01:36.080
are indoor units,
01:01:36.080 --> 01:01:38.870
and important thing about
Texas is the units built here
01:01:38.870 --> 01:01:39.973
are outdoor units.
01:01:39.973 --> 01:01:42.660
They were built for summer operation.
01:01:42.660 --> 01:01:44.190
And so you have two extreme.
01:01:44.190 --> 01:01:46.545
You have the winter
extreme you have to deal with,
01:01:46.545 --> 01:01:48.810
but you also have the summer extreme.
01:01:48.810 --> 01:01:51.150
And so you need to
take that into account
01:01:51.150 --> 01:01:53.113
in the design basis for the plant.
01:01:55.750 --> 01:01:58.510
This is a picture of a
combined cycle plant,
01:01:58.510 --> 01:02:03.450
and I'll get into how combined
cycles actually are designed.
01:02:03.450 --> 01:02:06.720
But this basically, if
you look at the stacks,
01:02:06.720 --> 01:02:09.644
each stack is associated
with a gas turbine.
01:02:09.644 --> 01:02:13.170
And then in this particular plant,
01:02:13.170 --> 01:02:15.430
we have two power blocks.
01:02:15.430 --> 01:02:18.110
There referred to as
two by one power blocks.
01:02:18.110 --> 01:02:21.750
You've got two turbines
on one steam turbine
01:02:21.750 --> 01:02:25.300
and it's referred to as a
two by one power block.
01:02:25.300 --> 01:02:28.490
If I go to the next picture,
01:02:28.490 --> 01:02:32.000
this is really just combined
cycle configuration.
01:02:32.000 --> 01:02:34.190
And what is meant by
combined cycle is that,
01:02:34.190 --> 01:02:37.560
it employs more than
one thermodynamic cycle
01:02:37.560 --> 01:02:39.580
to improve efficiency.
01:02:39.580 --> 01:02:42.540
So in this particular instance,
01:02:42.540 --> 01:02:47.340
we have a gas turbine
that is operating the heat
01:02:47.340 --> 01:02:49.720
that is generated within that turbine
01:02:49.720 --> 01:02:52.520
goes through a heat
recovery steam generator.
01:02:52.520 --> 01:02:55.130
So here people refer
to them (indistinct).
01:02:55.130 --> 01:02:58.820
And you can also add fuel
to that to do duct burning
01:02:58.820 --> 01:03:01.090
to increase the heat input.
01:03:01.090 --> 01:03:04.040
At the same time you
have a steam turbine
01:03:04.040 --> 01:03:07.700
where the water that you
put in to the heat recovery
01:03:07.700 --> 01:03:10.710
steam generator is
heated, converted to steam
01:03:10.710 --> 01:03:14.860
at very high temperatures and
returned to the steam turbine,
01:03:14.860 --> 01:03:17.740
it too operates running a generator.
01:03:17.740 --> 01:03:20.010
It exhausts into a condenser,
01:03:20.010 --> 01:03:22.110
which basically is a heat exchanger.
01:03:22.110 --> 01:03:23.810
You have a cooling tower.
01:03:23.810 --> 01:03:25.120
You're putting cooling water.
01:03:25.120 --> 01:03:26.310
Sometimes you're off the river,
01:03:26.310 --> 01:03:28.180
so it's not always cooling tower.
01:03:28.180 --> 01:03:29.930
But you're putting
water into the condenser,
01:03:29.930 --> 01:03:34.930
condensing it back to water
on the heat exchange side
01:03:35.690 --> 01:03:36.630
to condensate.
01:03:36.630 --> 01:03:38.220
And then you just start the cycle over.
01:03:38.220 --> 01:03:43.220
It's a continuous cycle as
you're running the gas turbine.
01:03:43.600 --> 01:03:46.100
So that's kind of how a
combined cycle works.
01:03:46.100 --> 01:03:47.410
And it's important to know
01:03:47.410 --> 01:03:50.730
these can be in multiple configurations.
01:03:50.730 --> 01:03:52.467
In Texas we have a one by one
01:03:52.467 --> 01:03:55.793
where we just have one gas
turbine on one steam turbine.
01:03:56.920 --> 01:03:59.860
Primarily, the fleet are two by one,
01:03:59.860 --> 01:04:02.820
but on our co-generation facilities,
01:04:02.820 --> 01:04:05.660
we have two, three
by one's, a four by one
01:04:05.660 --> 01:04:07.300
and a five by one.
01:04:07.300 --> 01:04:10.930
Because in that case, the
only difference on this graphic
01:04:10.930 --> 01:04:13.490
is that you're feeding
steam to a process.
01:04:13.490 --> 01:04:16.020
Either a refinery or a chemical plant.
01:04:16.020 --> 01:04:18.640
And so you're over-producing steam.
01:04:18.640 --> 01:04:21.000
So what you can put through the turbine
01:04:21.000 --> 01:04:22.360
generates electricity,
01:04:22.360 --> 01:04:24.360
the rest of the steam goes to your host.
01:04:26.890 --> 01:04:30.990
So let's talk about
gas plant winterization.
01:04:30.990 --> 01:04:32.970
First of all, I wanna kind of start out
01:04:32.970 --> 01:04:35.290
about plant personnel health and safety
01:04:35.290 --> 01:04:37.340
is one of our core values.
01:04:37.340 --> 01:04:38.560
And this is really important,
01:04:38.560 --> 01:04:40.580
because when you think
about what we experienced
01:04:40.580 --> 01:04:42.681
with winter storm URI,
01:04:42.681 --> 01:04:44.620
our employees had to be sequestered.
01:04:44.620 --> 01:04:47.310
In other words, access to the plants
01:04:47.310 --> 01:04:50.460
just like in our hurricane
becomes questionable.
01:04:50.460 --> 01:04:54.540
So we decided that we would
actually house our employees
01:04:54.540 --> 01:04:56.300
throughout the entire storm.
01:04:56.300 --> 01:04:58.090
So they were there 24/7,
01:04:58.090 --> 01:05:01.327
and these are very poor conditions,
01:05:01.327 --> 01:05:05.510
best to be outside dealing
with freezing issues, et cetera.
01:05:05.510 --> 01:05:09.830
We of course also added
some contract personnel
01:05:09.830 --> 01:05:11.460
to assist them in this.
01:05:11.460 --> 01:05:15.020
But you know, they're
sitting there doing this safely,
01:05:15.020 --> 01:05:16.670
while their families are at home
01:05:16.670 --> 01:05:20.710
dealing the same winter point
issues everybody else was.
01:05:20.710 --> 01:05:23.860
So it's kind of a shout
out to my employees here.
01:05:23.860 --> 01:05:26.905
So I really just wanted to mention that.
01:05:26.905 --> 01:05:31.905
Winter weather can present
some operational challenges,
01:05:32.174 --> 01:05:35.613
especially with instrumentation
and critical equipment.
01:05:36.630 --> 01:05:40.670
Our operational challenges
really are things like,
01:05:40.670 --> 01:05:43.730
process instrumentation
that is required for the control
01:05:43.730 --> 01:05:46.490
and operation of these units can freeze.
01:05:46.490 --> 01:05:50.100
And then you're sort of like
flying in the dark and say,
01:05:50.100 --> 01:05:53.630
a lot of times that causes a
trip or shut down of the unit.
01:05:53.630 --> 01:05:57.520
So you have to keep that
process instrumentation working.
01:05:57.520 --> 01:06:02.520
Air systems, we rely on
instrument air to control valves
01:06:02.530 --> 01:06:03.520
and positioners.
01:06:03.520 --> 01:06:07.020
And if that dewpoint
in that air gets frozen
01:06:07.020 --> 01:06:08.310
and you lose air,
01:06:08.310 --> 01:06:11.630
you also tend to lose the equipment.
01:06:11.630 --> 01:06:16.200
Our ammonia systems,
most of our plants are outfitted
01:06:16.200 --> 01:06:18.940
with selective catalytic
reduction systems.
01:06:18.940 --> 01:06:22.086
And this is for nitrous
oxide emission type controls.
01:06:22.086 --> 01:06:24.347
So you have to make sure
you can get ammonia to them
01:06:24.347 --> 01:06:26.920
so that they can stay
within your compliance
01:06:26.920 --> 01:06:29.310
with your operating permits.
01:06:29.310 --> 01:06:33.110
We have water and steam
systems that have to be monitored
01:06:33.110 --> 01:06:35.550
to make sure that
they don't freeze over.
01:06:35.550 --> 01:06:37.580
Steam drains are very important.
01:06:37.580 --> 01:06:40.500
These also have to stay flowing.
01:06:40.500 --> 01:06:43.530
If not, you can damage equipment.
01:06:43.530 --> 01:06:45.570
We have lubricating oil systems
01:06:45.570 --> 01:06:48.337
that are essential to the gas turbine
01:06:48.337 --> 01:06:51.140
and steam turbine for
their bearings, et cetera.
01:06:51.140 --> 01:06:54.098
These have to be
careful, warm and flowing.
01:06:54.098 --> 01:06:57.163
We have close cooling water systems
01:06:57.163 --> 01:07:00.810
that provide cooling water to
bearings and things like that.
01:07:00.810 --> 01:07:04.220
But in addition to that,
they're closed loop.
01:07:04.220 --> 01:07:06.120
So we do this with glycol,
01:07:06.120 --> 01:07:08.500
just like you do in your
car and your radiator.
01:07:08.500 --> 01:07:12.320
We put an alcohol-based
solution in it to make sure
01:07:12.320 --> 01:07:14.880
that it can meet the freeze design.
01:07:14.880 --> 01:07:18.967
And then your cooling
towers they can ice over also.
01:07:18.967 --> 01:07:22.270
And that can create damage
and operational issues.
01:07:22.270 --> 01:07:26.060
And in terms of being
able to cool the condenser.
01:07:28.660 --> 01:07:31.970
The makeup water intake, debris screens,
01:07:31.970 --> 01:07:34.530
if they ice over, you
lose flow of water.
01:07:34.530 --> 01:07:37.327
So you have to kind of maintain those,
01:07:37.327 --> 01:07:39.670
and wash those very carefully.
01:07:39.670 --> 01:07:42.440
And then your gas
regulating and pressure valves
01:07:42.440 --> 01:07:46.170
within the plant
coming off your gas feet.
01:07:46.170 --> 01:07:48.370
Those two can give
you operational issues
01:07:48.370 --> 01:07:51.200
if you don't properly
set up to protect them
01:07:51.200 --> 01:07:52.683
during cold weather events.
01:07:54.010 --> 01:07:56.550
So winterization of combined cycle
01:07:56.550 --> 01:07:58.820
and simple cycle generation facilities,
01:07:58.820 --> 01:08:01.040
we have no simple cycle in Texas,
01:08:01.040 --> 01:08:03.460
but we do in other areas.
01:08:03.460 --> 01:08:05.170
They should consider
a number of factors,
01:08:05.170 --> 01:08:08.603
including among other things
where the plan is located,
01:08:09.460 --> 01:08:12.248
the actual physical
orientation of the facility
01:08:12.248 --> 01:08:15.730
and the design and age of the facility,
01:08:15.730 --> 01:08:17.920
and then the experience of the facility
01:08:17.920 --> 01:08:19.717
in previous weather event.
01:08:19.717 --> 01:08:21.540
When you say
physical orientation,
01:08:21.540 --> 01:08:25.070
you mean on the campus?
01:08:25.070 --> 01:08:27.880
Yeah, because
sometimes your geographic
01:08:27.880 --> 01:08:28.860
where it's located,
01:08:28.860 --> 01:08:31.400
you might be right in
the prevailing winds.
01:08:31.400 --> 01:08:36.220
And so winds also impact your operation.
01:08:36.220 --> 01:08:39.440
And because it draws heat
away from your insulated pipes
01:08:39.440 --> 01:08:41.690
and everything and makes
everything work harder.
01:08:41.690 --> 01:08:43.250
And I'll get into
this a little bit about
01:08:43.250 --> 01:08:45.640
how to prevent that,
01:08:45.640 --> 01:08:49.110
but we do pay attention to
that when we're preparing
01:08:49.110 --> 01:08:49.943
for winter.
01:08:50.821 --> 01:08:54.890
There's really no one size
fits all here for winterization.
01:08:54.890 --> 01:08:56.850
And just a little disclaimer here,
01:08:56.850 --> 01:09:00.640
this is how we Calpine
approach winterization.
01:09:00.640 --> 01:09:04.310
And it comes from years of
experience with the industry,
01:09:04.310 --> 01:09:06.810
but there are other strategies
that could be deployed.
01:09:06.810 --> 01:09:09.283
It's just these are the
ones we choose to deploy.
01:09:11.120 --> 01:09:16.120
And so we have a planning guideline
01:09:16.330 --> 01:09:17.810
that we follow every year.
01:09:17.810 --> 01:09:19.890
I'm sorry, I didn't move this up.
01:09:19.890 --> 01:09:22.890
So as soon as the winter is over,
01:09:22.890 --> 01:09:25.894
we do a post winter
review just to find out
01:09:25.894 --> 01:09:28.930
what lessons we learned
from the last winter
01:09:28.930 --> 01:09:31.670
and what we need to put
into the winter readiness plan
01:09:31.670 --> 01:09:33.320
and winter operations plan.
01:09:33.320 --> 01:09:35.520
So you can imagine
from this last winter,
01:09:35.520 --> 01:09:38.870
there were a lot of lessons
that came from all the extremes
01:09:38.870 --> 01:09:39.793
that we saw.
01:09:40.990 --> 01:09:44.490
We do an initial site-specific
readiness meeting
01:09:44.490 --> 01:09:46.860
and during May and July,
01:09:46.860 --> 01:09:49.560
and then there, we
start to plan the work
01:09:49.560 --> 01:09:52.580
and implement the plant
winter readiness plan.
01:09:52.580 --> 01:09:54.670
The final work scope
and winterization plan
01:09:54.670 --> 01:09:57.747
is in place that's due
by the end of September,
01:09:57.747 --> 01:10:01.390
and then a site-specific
operation procedures
01:10:01.390 --> 01:10:04.870
are reviewed and updated
based on lessons learned,
01:10:04.870 --> 01:10:09.070
any equipment additions and
or any industry best practices
01:10:09.070 --> 01:10:10.350
that have come to light.
01:10:10.350 --> 01:10:12.200
That's usually in October.
01:10:12.200 --> 01:10:15.839
We train for winter readiness
with our plant personnel
01:10:15.839 --> 01:10:18.240
during the month of November.
01:10:18.240 --> 01:10:19.790
We sign an attestation,
01:10:19.790 --> 01:10:22.850
each plant signs an
attestation of where they are,
01:10:22.850 --> 01:10:25.610
in their plant winterization plan.
01:10:25.610 --> 01:10:27.780
And then that attestation,
01:10:27.780 --> 01:10:31.460
they will highlight anything
that perhaps is not complete
01:10:31.460 --> 01:10:34.890
as of the date is for example,
they may be in an outage.
01:10:34.890 --> 01:10:37.570
And so they're waiting
to complete their outage
01:10:37.570 --> 01:10:39.890
to finish insulating
and things like that.
01:10:39.890 --> 01:10:43.230
So that would be an example
of what would be an exception
01:10:43.230 --> 01:10:44.813
in the attestation.
01:10:44.813 --> 01:10:48.110
And then they come to me
and then I sign an attestation
01:10:48.110 --> 01:10:51.150
for the entire fleet and
submit it to ERCOT.
01:10:51.150 --> 01:10:55.415
And so we try to target December 1st
01:10:55.415 --> 01:10:58.033
as the date for our winter preparation.
01:10:59.150 --> 01:11:01.710
A lot of this
sounds like process.
01:11:01.710 --> 01:11:02.543
It is process.
01:11:04.282 --> 01:11:06.010
I know it changes side-by-side,
01:11:06.010 --> 01:11:08.610
but how much of this
roughly on a percentage basis
01:11:08.610 --> 01:11:13.220
is actual physical
implementation of best practices,
01:11:13.220 --> 01:11:18.220
or is it 90% procedural PNP
or a hundred percent PNP?
01:11:20.830 --> 01:11:23.530
Yeah, let me
address it this way.
01:11:23.530 --> 01:11:26.650
Typically, we don't have
a lot of lessons learned
01:11:26.650 --> 01:11:28.695
if we have a regular winter.
01:11:28.695 --> 01:11:29.528
(indistinct)
01:11:29.528 --> 01:11:30.361
(laughs)
01:11:30.361 --> 01:11:31.194
That's a good thing.
01:11:31.194 --> 01:11:32.910
This year it's a
huge amount of work.
01:11:32.910 --> 01:11:34.890
It's a huge volume of work.
01:11:34.890 --> 01:11:37.540
And so it just really
depends on what happened
01:11:37.540 --> 01:11:39.050
the previous winter?
01:11:39.050 --> 01:11:41.340
It's very experiential, as I said.
01:11:41.340 --> 01:11:44.850
And so right now we're
in the process of ordering
01:11:44.850 --> 01:11:49.850
significant amount of instrument
boxes, cabling, et cetera,
01:11:49.960 --> 01:11:52.810
to harden facilities based
on what we discovered
01:11:52.810 --> 01:11:54.820
during the 2021 hours.
01:11:54.820 --> 01:11:55.653
Gotcha, thank you.
01:11:55.653 --> 01:11:56.486
Does that answer your question?
01:11:56.486 --> 01:11:57.319
Yes.
01:11:57.319 --> 01:11:58.152
Okay, all right.
01:11:58.152 --> 01:11:58.985
Thank you.
01:11:58.985 --> 01:12:00.917
Can I ask you a quick question?
01:12:00.917 --> 01:12:02.787
I don't know if
this is... (indistinct)
01:12:02.787 --> 01:12:03.620
It is.
01:12:03.620 --> 01:12:05.840
So the many years
ago I worked for Calpine,
01:12:05.840 --> 01:12:08.840
so I know their plants fairly well,
01:12:08.840 --> 01:12:12.223
but you mentioned the design basis.
01:12:14.360 --> 01:12:17.700
Perhaps as a percentage number,
01:12:17.700 --> 01:12:21.240
is the cost of a design
basis for a plant in PJM
01:12:21.240 --> 01:12:23.360
or New England that much different
01:12:23.360 --> 01:12:26.470
from a design basis of
a plant here in ERCOT?
01:12:26.470 --> 01:12:29.930
Yeah, because, and let
me try to explain it this way,
01:12:29.930 --> 01:12:33.660
PJM, New England, they're
gonna have enclosed buildings.
01:12:33.660 --> 01:12:34.493
Right.
01:12:34.493 --> 01:12:35.830
Everything is gonna be inside.
01:12:35.830 --> 01:12:37.960
So you probably could
add a hundred million dollars
01:12:37.960 --> 01:12:41.000
to the cost basis of the plant
01:12:41.000 --> 01:12:43.370
for their winterization approach.
01:12:43.370 --> 01:12:45.270
And we just finished building a plant
01:12:45.270 --> 01:12:46.840
up in New York, Pennsylvania
01:12:47.900 --> 01:12:52.380
that is a combination
of outdoor, indoor unit
01:12:52.380 --> 01:12:54.510
because all of the drums and everything
01:12:54.510 --> 01:12:57.830
on the heat recovery
were put into enclosures.
01:12:57.830 --> 01:13:01.140
Here in Texas we only
have one plant like that.
01:13:01.140 --> 01:13:04.110
The rest of them are open
because of the heat again.
01:13:04.110 --> 01:13:05.970
And so you have to provide for cooling,
01:13:05.970 --> 01:13:09.440
you know, when in Texas
for those type of enclosures.
01:13:09.440 --> 01:13:10.273
Right.
01:13:10.273 --> 01:13:13.420
So you create the opposite
problem during the summer months.
01:13:13.420 --> 01:13:15.320
Does that reduce efficiency of the plant
01:13:15.320 --> 01:13:18.130
if you have an enclosure
during high heat?
01:13:18.130 --> 01:13:22.790
It's not so much the
efficiency as it is your electronics
01:13:22.790 --> 01:13:24.090
and your instrumentation.
01:13:24.090 --> 01:13:27.329
You have to keep them
cool enough to operate.
01:13:27.329 --> 01:13:28.420
Okay, thank you.
01:13:28.420 --> 01:13:31.770
Okay, any other
venture question?
01:13:31.770 --> 01:13:32.603
Thank you, sir.
01:13:32.603 --> 01:13:37.360
So sir, you said
that Calpine's fleet
01:13:37.360 --> 01:13:40.580
is hardening to a 2011 standard,
01:13:40.580 --> 01:13:42.730
'cause that was the most recent event.
01:13:42.730 --> 01:13:47.470
We hardened to a
2011 standard in 2012.
01:13:47.470 --> 01:13:50.270
We're hardening to
what we know from 2021.
01:13:50.270 --> 01:13:51.103
Today?
01:13:51.103 --> 01:13:51.990
Okay.
01:13:51.990 --> 01:13:53.550
Okay, so that was my question,
01:13:53.550 --> 01:13:57.183
'cause according to Dr. Games average,
01:13:58.560 --> 01:14:00.560
1989 is kind of the new standard
01:14:00.560 --> 01:14:04.730
that's on your 95th percentile average.
01:14:04.730 --> 01:14:07.870
So but you're hardening
to a URI standard today.
01:14:07.870 --> 01:14:09.750
That is what we're
trying to do exactly.
01:14:09.750 --> 01:14:12.980
We have a documented
list of all the issues we had,
01:14:12.980 --> 01:14:15.833
and that we need to
address going forward basis.
01:14:18.771 --> 01:14:21.129
(indistinct)
01:14:21.129 --> 01:14:22.490
Okay, thank you.
01:14:22.490 --> 01:14:27.210
So this is just a sample of
winter readiness preparations.
01:14:27.210 --> 01:14:30.230
And the first thing we do is we document
01:14:30.230 --> 01:14:33.680
the minimum plant design
operating temperature,
01:14:33.680 --> 01:14:37.230
and then we want to determine
01:14:37.230 --> 01:14:38.910
what the lowest ambient temperature
01:14:38.910 --> 01:14:42.720
we need to prepare
for any modifications.
01:14:42.720 --> 01:14:45.910
We have made to the unit.
01:14:45.910 --> 01:14:49.040
We also wanna make
sure these modifications
01:14:49.040 --> 01:14:52.460
do meet the minimum
plant design standard.
01:14:52.460 --> 01:14:54.930
We review the past winters issues
01:14:54.930 --> 01:14:57.380
and experience some
with any equipment freezing.
01:14:57.380 --> 01:15:01.110
So that's what we're in the
process of doing right now.
01:15:01.110 --> 01:15:04.520
We identify the critical
equipment that may be impacted
01:15:04.520 --> 01:15:06.090
by cold weather.
01:15:06.090 --> 01:15:08.670
We identify what type of heat tracing
01:15:08.670 --> 01:15:10.670
is used for the critical equipment
01:15:10.670 --> 01:15:14.820
and develop and perform an
annual preventative maintenance
01:15:14.820 --> 01:15:17.340
of the heat tracing
system prior to winter.
01:15:17.340 --> 01:15:19.890
And I'll show you an
example of what he tracing is,
01:15:21.030 --> 01:15:22.410
towards the end of this.
01:15:22.410 --> 01:15:24.080
We document the maintenance perform
01:15:24.080 --> 01:15:25.430
on the instrument air system,
01:15:25.430 --> 01:15:27.330
because this is a critical to operations
01:15:27.330 --> 01:15:29.510
to make sure we have the
proper desiccants in there,
01:15:29.510 --> 01:15:33.740
and that we can drain and
keep moisture out of the air.
01:15:33.740 --> 01:15:38.070
We perform a walk down of
all the critical plant equipment
01:15:38.070 --> 01:15:40.060
to make sure that there's any repairs
01:15:40.060 --> 01:15:42.870
that need to be made to the insulation.
01:15:42.870 --> 01:15:45.670
We do it prior to the winter operation.
01:15:45.670 --> 01:15:49.030
We carry a pretty large
inventory of consumables
01:15:49.030 --> 01:15:52.540
and emergency supplies for winter.
01:15:52.540 --> 01:15:56.563
We make sure those
inventories are up to speed.
01:15:58.240 --> 01:16:01.370
We test all our portable heaters
and equipment and storage.
01:16:01.370 --> 01:16:03.290
And we check all our space heaters.
01:16:03.290 --> 01:16:04.850
And then in some buildings
01:16:04.850 --> 01:16:07.910
we have permanent
building space heaters,
01:16:07.910 --> 01:16:10.270
and we'll build an enclosure around it.
01:16:10.270 --> 01:16:13.230
For winter operation
and we test those also.
01:16:13.230 --> 01:16:16.300
The heat trace systems are tested.
01:16:16.300 --> 01:16:18.620
We bring an outside firm in,
01:16:18.620 --> 01:16:21.410
they'll actually load
test these to make sure
01:16:21.410 --> 01:16:23.317
we don't have any
open circuits, et cetera.
01:16:23.317 --> 01:16:25.683
And that they're
operating on the design.
01:16:26.700 --> 01:16:30.620
We prepare to for installation
of temporary windbreaks,
01:16:30.620 --> 01:16:33.730
and in those we placed temporary heaters
01:16:33.730 --> 01:16:35.260
if they're enclosed,
01:16:35.260 --> 01:16:37.240
we make sure we use heavy enough tarps.
01:16:37.240 --> 01:16:39.222
Some places will use insulated blankets
01:16:39.222 --> 01:16:42.220
depending on how cold it gets.
01:16:42.220 --> 01:16:44.730
And then we usually put a map together
01:16:44.730 --> 01:16:48.150
to show where all our
enclosures are at that plant site.
01:16:48.150 --> 01:16:49.883
And it's this plant specific map.
01:16:50.730 --> 01:16:53.240
We repair any leaks on
any critical equipment.
01:16:53.240 --> 01:16:56.030
You wanna avoid any freezing issues,
01:16:56.030 --> 01:16:57.740
icicles, that type of thing.
01:16:57.740 --> 01:17:00.567
That's more of a personal safety issue,
01:17:03.680 --> 01:17:05.600
personnel safety issue.
01:17:05.600 --> 01:17:08.850
And then we prepare
critical staffing plans.
01:17:08.850 --> 01:17:13.530
So we know if we see a
forecast like we saw for URI,
01:17:13.530 --> 01:17:15.960
we'll make the decision to sequester
01:17:15.960 --> 01:17:18.410
and we'll have adequate resources there,
01:17:18.410 --> 01:17:20.670
so that people can
work in 12 hour shifts
01:17:20.670 --> 01:17:22.150
and relieve them,
01:17:22.150 --> 01:17:24.880
make sure we keep things
thawed the best we can.
01:17:24.880 --> 01:17:27.270
The on-site housing
like you mentioned earlier.
01:17:27.270 --> 01:17:29.390
Yeah, we actually
housed them onsite.
01:17:29.390 --> 01:17:33.620
We use offices, we bring
in bunks and little beds
01:17:33.620 --> 01:17:37.020
and we have connexes
that have been equipped
01:17:37.020 --> 01:17:38.440
for people to stay in.
01:17:38.440 --> 01:17:40.850
We especially did this during COVID,
01:17:40.850 --> 01:17:43.200
because of some of the issues we've had.
01:17:43.200 --> 01:17:46.670
And also we did it for
hurricane preparation.
01:17:46.670 --> 01:17:48.640
So we have these facilities,
01:17:48.640 --> 01:17:50.370
people come in and they stay.
01:17:50.370 --> 01:17:53.410
We have food and water
and all the provisions
01:17:53.410 --> 01:17:54.910
that are necessary.
01:17:54.910 --> 01:17:57.936
And a lot of times our
plants are inaccessible
01:17:57.936 --> 01:17:58.814
and in times like this,
01:17:58.814 --> 01:18:01.340
so you don't want people on the road.
01:18:01.340 --> 01:18:03.190
So yes.
01:18:03.190 --> 01:18:08.190
Did you have any interaction
between your fuel supplier
01:18:09.010 --> 01:18:13.533
and the plant operations
kind of in this winter timeframe?
01:18:14.545 --> 01:18:15.378
I'm wondering obviously fuel
01:18:15.378 --> 01:18:16.830
is the most important part of the plant
01:18:16.830 --> 01:18:18.340
or one of the most
important parts of the plant
01:18:18.340 --> 01:18:19.253
to make it run.
01:18:20.165 --> 01:18:24.190
I know we haven't had
extremes like we had in February,
01:18:24.190 --> 01:18:28.180
but especially with the fuel systems.
01:18:28.180 --> 01:18:30.870
But is there ever a common discussion
01:18:30.870 --> 01:18:34.240
between you all except
on a maintenance timing?
01:18:34.240 --> 01:18:35.090
Let me put it this way,
01:18:35.090 --> 01:18:39.870
we're served by different
gas suppliers and we do,
01:18:39.870 --> 01:18:42.277
we're very active in our
communications with them.
01:18:42.277 --> 01:18:45.420
And so, for example, just last winter
01:18:45.420 --> 01:18:49.800
we lost one of our plants
because the gas yard lost power.
01:18:49.800 --> 01:18:53.810
And so we were in constant
communication working with them
01:18:53.810 --> 01:18:55.120
to get it restored, et cetera.
01:18:55.120 --> 01:18:57.730
So we do have those kinds of,
01:18:57.730 --> 01:18:59.360
but it's on the operational level,
01:18:59.360 --> 01:19:00.670
you know, it's....
01:19:00.670 --> 01:19:02.490
Do you ever ask
your gas supplier
01:19:02.490 --> 01:19:05.130
what their weatherization efforts are?
01:19:05.130 --> 01:19:05.963
I have not.
01:19:07.780 --> 01:19:08.613
Good.
01:19:10.840 --> 01:19:15.580
So this is just a critical
equipment winterization.
01:19:15.580 --> 01:19:19.230
We heat trace all systems
that are prone to freezing,
01:19:19.230 --> 01:19:21.443
including chemical addition systems.
01:19:22.300 --> 01:19:24.710
We drain certain equipment
prior to winter operation.
01:19:24.710 --> 01:19:27.550
We have equipment that
we only use in the summer,
01:19:27.550 --> 01:19:32.550
their chillers, inlet fogging,
evaporative coolers.
01:19:32.810 --> 01:19:35.940
These are used to boost
generation in the summer,
01:19:35.940 --> 01:19:37.340
but they're uninsulated.
01:19:37.340 --> 01:19:40.930
So we drain all of them
make sure they're protected.
01:19:40.930 --> 01:19:44.446
We prepare for icing
prevention on the inlet air filters.
01:19:44.446 --> 01:19:46.300
If you go back to that picture,
01:19:46.300 --> 01:19:50.840
you'll see these large structures
that have filters on them.
01:19:50.840 --> 01:19:52.470
Those will ice over,
01:19:52.470 --> 01:19:54.600
and so you have to
have replacement filters
01:19:54.600 --> 01:19:57.160
and you have to be able
to pull those filters out
01:19:57.160 --> 01:19:59.400
and replace them
while the unit is running.
01:19:59.400 --> 01:20:01.470
And so that's a pretty
significant event.
01:20:01.470 --> 01:20:03.630
And if you don't do that,
01:20:03.630 --> 01:20:05.580
you can starve the units for air
01:20:05.580 --> 01:20:08.720
and of course, that will
cause the (insitinct) to trip.
01:20:08.720 --> 01:20:12.430
We also have to protect our compressors.
01:20:12.430 --> 01:20:14.410
As on the inland guide vane,
01:20:14.410 --> 01:20:16.570
sometimes we have to
make adjustments there,
01:20:16.570 --> 01:20:19.207
to keep from freezing
across that blading.
01:20:21.090 --> 01:20:24.090
We build enclosures and
windbreaks around certain equipment
01:20:24.090 --> 01:20:27.170
to make sure that we
can keep it operational.
01:20:27.170 --> 01:20:30.080
And these are temporary structures,
01:20:30.080 --> 01:20:33.080
again, because we take them
down for summer operation,
01:20:33.080 --> 01:20:36.320
but we'll build them, cover
them and then put a heater in,
01:20:36.320 --> 01:20:38.683
and then we check on
them on a routine basis.
01:20:39.530 --> 01:20:43.053
We installed supplemental
heating on sensitive equipment.
01:20:44.720 --> 01:20:46.660
We also look at vendor supplied,
01:20:46.660 --> 01:20:48.600
like chemical storage toast.
01:20:48.600 --> 01:20:51.020
They have no freeze protection.
01:20:51.020 --> 01:20:53.100
So we either put them in an area
01:20:53.100 --> 01:20:55.940
where it's controlled environment
01:20:55.940 --> 01:20:57.567
or we'll build blankets around them
01:20:57.567 --> 01:21:00.390
and make sure that we
can keep them clothing
01:21:00.390 --> 01:21:03.660
and then water treatment chemicals,
01:21:03.660 --> 01:21:07.170
every one of our plant as
a water treatment facility
01:21:07.170 --> 01:21:08.160
within it.
01:21:08.160 --> 01:21:11.170
And we depend heavily on
that water to be able to operate.
01:21:11.170 --> 01:21:15.093
So we winterize those plants too.
01:21:16.330 --> 01:21:18.880
Another question on that
kinda going up the value chain
01:21:18.880 --> 01:21:19.870
like I did on the fuel.
01:21:19.870 --> 01:21:21.440
On the water component,
01:21:21.440 --> 01:21:23.350
I know you get a lot of water
01:21:23.350 --> 01:21:25.240
and as do most combined cycle plants
01:21:25.240 --> 01:21:26.580
around the state from cities.
01:21:26.580 --> 01:21:28.980
So they use a fluent water for cooling.
01:21:28.980 --> 01:21:32.060
Did you have any problems
or do you know of any problems
01:21:32.060 --> 01:21:36.857
that happen during the
storm where you weren't able
01:21:37.860 --> 01:21:40.840
to get the water that
you had contracted for,
01:21:40.840 --> 01:21:43.950
because there was either
electrical or a freezing problem
01:21:43.950 --> 01:21:46.990
with the water
treatment plan at the city?
01:21:46.990 --> 01:21:50.820
Fortunately, we did not
experience any real difficult.
01:21:50.820 --> 01:21:53.170
We are served by two different entities
01:21:53.170 --> 01:21:54.003
at one of our plants,
01:21:54.003 --> 01:21:55.890
and one of them had freezing issues,
01:21:55.890 --> 01:22:00.010
but the other was able to
deliver if I remember correctly.
01:22:00.010 --> 01:22:02.900
And then the other thing is
what we had a bigger problem
01:22:02.900 --> 01:22:05.000
was it's processed chemicals.
01:22:05.000 --> 01:22:07.190
A lot of the facilities here in Texas
01:22:07.190 --> 01:22:10.980
that provide us with basic
acids and bases, et cetera,
01:22:10.980 --> 01:22:13.700
that we use for water treatment froze.
01:22:13.700 --> 01:22:17.270
So we had to go to
Louisiana and the Southeast
01:22:17.270 --> 01:22:20.217
to bring chemicals in to
keep the plant operation.
01:22:20.217 --> 01:22:22.650
And we weren't the only
operator that had that issue.
01:22:22.650 --> 01:22:23.570
Right.
01:22:23.570 --> 01:22:26.460
But that was another
thing that was something
01:22:26.460 --> 01:22:28.170
we hadn't really foreseen,
01:22:28.170 --> 01:22:31.590
'cause we only have so
much storage on site and so...
01:22:31.590 --> 01:22:32.423
Thank you.
01:22:33.460 --> 01:22:36.860
The next page is kind
of, I guess, show and tell.
01:22:36.860 --> 01:22:39.570
So on the left-hand side,
01:22:39.570 --> 01:22:44.290
this is a process (indistinct)
that's used for transmitters,
01:22:44.290 --> 01:22:48.720
for transmitting pressure, et cetera.
01:22:48.720 --> 01:22:49.710
And as you can see,
01:22:49.710 --> 01:22:54.000
it's designed where you
have your process tubes.
01:22:54.000 --> 01:22:57.410
That cable that you see there
is what's called heat tracing.
01:22:57.410 --> 01:23:00.910
So there's a heat trace
that runs with those tubes.
01:23:00.910 --> 01:23:04.760
It's surrounded by sort of a hygroscopic
01:23:04.760 --> 01:23:06.980
glass fiber insulation,
01:23:06.980 --> 01:23:08.620
so it won't retain moisture.
01:23:08.620 --> 01:23:10.827
And then you've got a
coating on the outside.
01:23:10.827 --> 01:23:15.060
And on a lot of areas,
our plant instrumentation
01:23:15.060 --> 01:23:16.770
is on the ground level,
01:23:16.770 --> 01:23:19.570
but the actual process point
is 90 to a hundred feet up
01:23:19.570 --> 01:23:20.490
in the air.
01:23:20.490 --> 01:23:22.090
So you have to run this cabling down
01:23:22.090 --> 01:23:24.050
and keep it protected.
01:23:24.050 --> 01:23:28.460
As you do so when you're
wrapping pipes for heat tracing,
01:23:28.460 --> 01:23:31.750
the picture in the center
is the type of cable you use
01:23:31.750 --> 01:23:34.200
while you wrap the piping
01:23:34.200 --> 01:23:37.300
and depending on the calculations
01:23:37.300 --> 01:23:39.310
depending what wattage you use,
01:23:39.310 --> 01:23:42.960
but that's a standard of what
a heat trace cable looks like.
01:23:42.960 --> 01:23:46.010
Then on the right-hand
side is your control cabinet
01:23:46.010 --> 01:23:47.361
for heat tracing system.
01:23:47.361 --> 01:23:49.440
This one is on a turbine.
01:23:49.440 --> 01:23:52.610
And so what it does is it
controls the flow of current
01:23:52.610 --> 01:23:55.350
to the heat tracing along
with giving you alarms
01:23:55.350 --> 01:23:57.720
as if something is open or
something is not working.
01:23:57.720 --> 01:23:59.123
So you have some invocation.
01:24:01.100 --> 01:24:03.870
This is a examples of
one breaks and enclosures,
01:24:03.870 --> 01:24:05.130
and these are all temporary.
01:24:05.130 --> 01:24:06.890
We put them up every year,
01:24:06.890 --> 01:24:08.440
but we do that as I said,
01:24:08.440 --> 01:24:11.860
because the wind does
remove heat from the plant
01:24:11.860 --> 01:24:13.270
and from the process.
01:24:13.270 --> 01:24:17.060
And this helps retain
as much heat as we can.
01:24:17.060 --> 01:24:19.320
When you get the kind
of conditions we saw
01:24:19.320 --> 01:24:21.160
or near zero temperatures,
01:24:21.160 --> 01:24:23.870
it's moving across there pretty briskly,
01:24:23.870 --> 01:24:25.920
you're losing a lot of heat,
01:24:25.920 --> 01:24:29.138
but you try to protect against that.
01:24:29.138 --> 01:24:31.540
On the very far right
side is just an example
01:24:31.540 --> 01:24:34.690
of an enclosure where we
built a temporary enclosure
01:24:34.690 --> 01:24:37.230
and put a heater in
and we'll close that up,
01:24:37.230 --> 01:24:40.080
keep it warm, we'll
check on it in our rounds.
01:24:40.080 --> 01:24:43.460
That's where as we're
experiencing the storm.
01:24:43.460 --> 01:24:45.943
And on the final page here,
01:24:46.870 --> 01:24:48.530
these are instrument boxes.
01:24:48.530 --> 01:24:50.730
These are heated instrument boxes
01:24:50.730 --> 01:24:53.610
where we run our
process instrumentation to.
01:24:53.610 --> 01:24:54.930
These are very critical.
01:24:54.930 --> 01:24:58.390
And in 2011, we didn't
have a lot of these.
01:24:58.390 --> 01:25:00.810
We added some in problem areas.
01:25:00.810 --> 01:25:03.210
This year we're probably
adding twice as many
01:25:03.210 --> 01:25:05.350
as we added in 2011.
01:25:05.350 --> 01:25:09.800
And we are using
these basically to protect
01:25:09.800 --> 01:25:11.053
our instrumentation.
01:25:12.240 --> 01:25:14.500
You can see the cabling
coming into the back of it,
01:25:14.500 --> 01:25:17.240
on the side of it as a small thermometer
01:25:17.240 --> 01:25:18.500
that you can quickly glance
01:25:18.500 --> 01:25:20.450
without having to open
the compartment up
01:25:20.450 --> 01:25:21.640
to see that it's working,
01:25:21.640 --> 01:25:26.000
that the heat element is
actually keeping the box warm,
01:25:26.000 --> 01:25:29.253
but these are very
critical in winter operation.
01:25:30.980 --> 01:25:34.950
And with that's really kinda
the end of my presentation.
01:25:34.950 --> 01:25:37.950
And I realized it's more of a
primmer than anything else,
01:25:37.950 --> 01:25:41.310
but I'm open for any
questions anybody may have.
01:25:41.310 --> 01:25:43.032
We appreciate it.
01:25:43.032 --> 01:25:43.865
Questions?
01:25:45.017 --> 01:25:46.017
One question, sir.
01:25:47.770 --> 01:25:48.693
No offense.
01:25:49.730 --> 01:25:52.230
How long has your
career been in the industry?
01:25:52.230 --> 01:25:53.063
40 years.
01:25:53.063 --> 01:25:54.093
Great.
01:25:54.093 --> 01:25:55.430
(laughs)
01:25:55.430 --> 01:25:56.430
That's helpful.
01:25:56.430 --> 01:25:58.222
I don't take that as
offensive by the way.
01:25:58.222 --> 01:25:59.055
(laughs)
01:25:59.055 --> 01:25:59.990
It's a compliment.
01:25:59.990 --> 01:26:04.050
So just for historical reference,
01:26:04.050 --> 01:26:09.050
were you in the industry and
in Texas in 1983, thereabouts?
01:26:09.080 --> 01:26:10.660
No, but I was
in North Carolina.
01:26:10.660 --> 01:26:11.493
Okay.
01:26:12.560 --> 01:26:16.080
All right, so looking
at the chart and events
01:26:16.960 --> 01:26:19.320
when trying to marry up
our proposed standards
01:26:19.320 --> 01:26:23.350
that staff has proposed with what you,
01:26:23.350 --> 01:26:26.093
as the industry will have
to do and comply with.
01:26:26.980 --> 01:26:28.730
So and I was wrong with my numbers.
01:26:28.730 --> 01:26:31.520
So it looks like according to...
01:26:31.520 --> 01:26:33.660
And again, on the low temperature scale
01:26:34.669 --> 01:26:38.393
the 95th percentile event is 1983.
01:26:40.139 --> 01:26:42.740
Do you happen to
know what 1983 was like,
01:26:42.740 --> 01:26:45.830
in terms of an event what
was experienced at that time
01:26:45.830 --> 01:26:49.320
and experience dictates
what you will harden to,
01:26:49.320 --> 01:26:50.830
I'm sure what you'll think about.
01:26:50.830 --> 01:26:54.562
So 1983, I was
working at a coal facility
01:26:54.562 --> 01:26:56.800
in the mountains of North Carolina.
01:26:56.800 --> 01:26:58.675
We got down below zero.
01:26:58.675 --> 01:27:01.330
And I think we were six below.
01:27:01.330 --> 01:27:05.979
And we had solid fuel, coal
that we had to keep moving.
01:27:05.979 --> 01:27:07.340
It was alive pile,
01:27:07.340 --> 01:27:12.340
so we were out bulldozing
coal into an underground hopper
01:27:12.840 --> 01:27:14.353
and feeding it to the units.
01:27:15.230 --> 01:27:17.296
We had significant freezing issues,
01:27:17.296 --> 01:27:20.340
but we were able to keep the units on.
01:27:20.340 --> 01:27:23.550
We did have, and I
remember this very clearly.
01:27:23.550 --> 01:27:27.500
We had one instrument that
froze and was a false invocation
01:27:27.500 --> 01:27:29.850
and we actually did significant damage
01:27:29.850 --> 01:27:31.510
to one of our boilers.
01:27:31.510 --> 01:27:34.430
And then I was tasked with
repairing it afterwards.(laughs)
01:27:34.430 --> 01:27:36.750
I remember that very, very distinctly.
01:27:36.750 --> 01:27:39.220
But going back to that time,
01:27:39.220 --> 01:27:41.600
we did address those issues.
01:27:41.600 --> 01:27:44.030
We actually built additional enclosures
01:27:44.030 --> 01:27:47.510
because it was an outdoor
unit again in the Carolinas,
01:27:47.510 --> 01:27:52.510
but the summers aren't as
taxing there in the mountains
01:27:53.210 --> 01:27:54.420
of North Carolina.
01:27:54.420 --> 01:27:56.410
So we were able to address it,
01:27:56.410 --> 01:27:58.290
but it was again experiential.
01:27:58.290 --> 01:27:59.123
Okay.
01:28:00.590 --> 01:28:01.560
Did that answer
your question, sir?
01:28:01.560 --> 01:28:02.460
Yeah, yes or no.
01:28:03.610 --> 01:28:05.210
So 2011 is our...
01:28:05.210 --> 01:28:08.300
I mean, 2011 affected
at a number of facilities.
01:28:08.300 --> 01:28:10.620
But again, it was the famous picture
01:28:10.620 --> 01:28:12.760
of trip dog it up there in
front of the Senate panel
01:28:12.760 --> 01:28:15.700
with the valve on that line
01:28:15.700 --> 01:28:19.407
that froze the tripped one
critical or two critical plants,
01:28:19.407 --> 01:28:22.160
and all over of a sudden
we had a problem.
01:28:22.160 --> 01:28:26.200
But so 1983 was one of
those deep freeze events
01:28:26.200 --> 01:28:28.080
that covered the country.
01:28:28.080 --> 01:28:29.460
Again, coal piles froze.
01:28:29.460 --> 01:28:32.373
So it is somewhat akin to 1989.
01:28:32.373 --> 01:28:35.370
1989 as I understand it was
certainly that type of event,
01:28:35.370 --> 01:28:37.030
you couldn't break into the cold piles
01:28:37.030 --> 01:28:39.503
'cause it was so cold.
01:28:41.640 --> 01:28:46.640
But 1989 it looks like it's
the 98 percentile metric
01:28:46.800 --> 01:28:50.260
on our at least the Abilene chart.
01:28:50.260 --> 01:28:51.820
And again, we're
looking at this regionally,
01:28:51.820 --> 01:28:54.340
but that's helpful.
01:28:54.340 --> 01:28:55.623
Okay, very good.
01:28:56.990 --> 01:28:57.823
Thank you.
01:28:58.910 --> 01:29:00.173
One more quick question.
01:29:01.490 --> 01:29:04.690
To build on Jimmy's gas
supply chain question earlier
01:29:06.620 --> 01:29:09.760
on the force mejuere,
01:29:09.760 --> 01:29:12.180
a conversation we had
with a previous panelists,
01:29:12.180 --> 01:29:17.180
is there apples to apples
to compare onsite storage
01:29:18.900 --> 01:29:22.390
to firm gas in terms of availability
01:29:22.390 --> 01:29:24.630
in an extreme winter event?
01:29:24.630 --> 01:29:27.573
Well, I'm not sure
it's apples to apples.
01:29:28.560 --> 01:29:32.647
The way I would look
at it as on-site storage
01:29:32.647 --> 01:29:35.000
is a pretty significant undertaking
01:29:35.000 --> 01:29:37.490
with the volumes of gas that we burn.
01:29:37.490 --> 01:29:40.300
So just think about this calculation,
01:29:40.300 --> 01:29:45.300
it takes 7,000 BTU of gas
for one net kilowatt hour,
01:29:47.430 --> 01:29:50.550
and you're doing
600,000 kilowatts an hour.
01:29:50.550 --> 01:29:52.963
So the numbers get tremendous, you know,
01:29:55.550 --> 01:29:58.330
many billions of BTU and then you divide
01:29:58.330 --> 01:30:00.850
that into billion cubic
feet or convert it,
01:30:00.850 --> 01:30:02.840
it's a large amount
that you'd have to store.
01:30:02.840 --> 01:30:04.940
So our approach is always,
01:30:04.940 --> 01:30:09.940
I think that more aligned
with having firm gas delivered.
01:30:10.020 --> 01:30:12.730
It's on the cost of
storage instructions basis.
01:30:12.730 --> 01:30:15.480
Yeah, and you take time
to do that and engineer,
01:30:15.480 --> 01:30:16.420
et cetera.
01:30:16.420 --> 01:30:17.253
I mean, you can do it,
01:30:17.253 --> 01:30:19.223
but it's pretty significant.
01:30:22.295 --> 01:30:24.580
Just one follow up question.
01:30:24.580 --> 01:30:26.340
So earlier in your presentation,
01:30:26.340 --> 01:30:28.760
you stated that there
is no one size fits all
01:30:28.760 --> 01:30:29.780
to weatherization.
01:30:29.780 --> 01:30:32.180
It depends on a variety of factors,
01:30:32.180 --> 01:30:35.393
such as unit age and
design and location.
01:30:38.233 --> 01:30:40.130
Have you had experience somewhere else
01:30:40.130 --> 01:30:41.900
like North Carolina or anywhere
01:30:41.900 --> 01:30:44.560
where there was perhaps
weatherization standards
01:30:44.560 --> 01:30:48.200
that would specifically address say,
01:30:48.200 --> 01:30:50.760
you know, uniformly
industry best practices
01:30:50.760 --> 01:30:55.030
for old steam units, old combined cycles
01:30:56.120 --> 01:30:59.410
in different types of
categories of plants?
01:30:59.410 --> 01:31:02.490
In your experience
are there best practices
01:31:02.490 --> 01:31:04.840
that you can apply uniformly across
01:31:04.840 --> 01:31:06.370
different types of plants,
01:31:06.370 --> 01:31:10.750
rather than just a whole
segment of plants and megawatts?
01:31:10.750 --> 01:31:13.940
I think there are best
practices you can adopt
01:31:13.940 --> 01:31:17.080
based on new technology, et cetera,
01:31:17.080 --> 01:31:19.430
that you can apply to your plants.
01:31:19.430 --> 01:31:22.440
But when I look at the
design basis of plants
01:31:22.440 --> 01:31:24.670
depending on where
they are geographically,
01:31:24.670 --> 01:31:26.340
they're just so different.
01:31:26.340 --> 01:31:29.850
Like I've operated plants in Indiana
01:31:29.850 --> 01:31:34.510
and they're all enclosed
and they have following sheds
01:31:34.510 --> 01:31:37.271
for their coal and
those types of things.
01:31:37.271 --> 01:31:40.860
But a very specific to that location
01:31:42.130 --> 01:31:43.700
for the combined cycle fleet,
01:31:43.700 --> 01:31:48.700
which is probably more
comparative to Texas
01:31:49.147 --> 01:31:50.320
and North Carolina.
01:31:50.320 --> 01:31:53.250
I mean, they're their
outdoor units, et cetera.
01:31:53.250 --> 01:31:55.680
Most of the stuff that we're doing here
01:31:55.680 --> 01:31:58.800
is exactly the same as I
was doing at Duke Energy
01:31:58.800 --> 01:32:01.340
with our combined cycles up there.
01:32:01.340 --> 01:32:04.350
The only difference was
the two combined cycles
01:32:04.350 --> 01:32:08.040
that were last ones built
and were up in North Carolina
01:32:08.040 --> 01:32:11.450
in the mounts to replace
the coal plant I started at.
01:32:11.450 --> 01:32:14.210
Those were built with indoor enclosures,
01:32:14.210 --> 01:32:17.150
because the winter
is more extreme there,
01:32:17.150 --> 01:32:20.270
but the rest of the fleet is
pretty much outdoor fleet.
01:32:20.270 --> 01:32:24.330
And we use the same
technologies and practices.
01:32:24.330 --> 01:32:25.749
I hope that answers your question.
01:32:25.749 --> 01:32:27.137
I think so.
01:32:27.137 --> 01:32:30.200
I mean, we're in a large state
01:32:30.200 --> 01:32:35.030
with a lot of different variation
and weather and by region
01:32:35.030 --> 01:32:36.810
and different types of plants,
01:32:36.810 --> 01:32:38.730
some like anywhere else.
01:32:38.730 --> 01:32:43.055
And I'm just trying to figure
out what are some baseline
01:32:43.055 --> 01:32:45.500
weatherization standards
that could be applied
01:32:45.500 --> 01:32:48.390
to different types of plants
depending on their age,
01:32:48.390 --> 01:32:51.340
location, variety of factors.
01:32:51.340 --> 01:32:53.010
And we can probably
continue that discussion
01:32:53.010 --> 01:32:54.500
during the discussion draft,
01:32:54.500 --> 01:32:56.152
but I was just kinda curious
01:32:56.152 --> 01:33:01.152
given your great extensive
experience in the industry,
01:33:01.570 --> 01:33:04.257
if you might be able to point us,
01:33:04.257 --> 01:33:06.680
and it sounds like you
you've had that experience
01:33:06.680 --> 01:33:09.211
in terms of some best practices baseline
01:33:09.211 --> 01:33:12.700
that can be applied to
different types of plants
01:33:12.700 --> 01:33:13.660
on their location.
01:33:13.660 --> 01:33:15.600
And I think that's just
maybe some of it's driven
01:33:15.600 --> 01:33:16.810
by operational experience.
01:33:16.810 --> 01:33:19.500
Yeah, and some of the
things we're proposing to do,
01:33:19.500 --> 01:33:22.160
to prepare for the 2022 winter,
01:33:22.160 --> 01:33:25.380
assuming that it's gonna
be a repeat event, (chuckles)
01:33:25.380 --> 01:33:26.910
we hope to God, it's not.
01:33:26.910 --> 01:33:29.880
But we are planning to that standard.
01:33:29.880 --> 01:33:33.230
And so there are things we're
doing with upgrades and stuff
01:33:33.230 --> 01:33:36.150
that we could definitely
bring to the table.
01:33:36.150 --> 01:33:37.290
Okay, thank you.
01:33:37.290 --> 01:33:38.123
Thank you.
01:33:38.123 --> 01:33:40.770
So I would have one more
follow up to the follow up,
01:33:40.770 --> 01:33:45.200
and that is obviously the big
two turbine suppliers are GE
01:33:45.200 --> 01:33:46.033
and Westinghouse.
01:33:46.033 --> 01:33:50.440
Do they have support efforts
01:33:50.440 --> 01:33:53.910
or things that best practices may be,
01:33:53.910 --> 01:33:56.580
on how to winterize or,
01:33:56.580 --> 01:34:01.080
I mean, have they been a
beneficial resource as they have,
01:34:01.080 --> 01:34:03.180
they monitor turbines
all over the world,
01:34:03.180 --> 01:34:06.500
through Atlanta, all over the
winter months everywhere.
01:34:06.500 --> 01:34:10.460
And obviously they have
a huge data resource there.
01:34:10.460 --> 01:34:11.700
Have they been...
01:34:11.700 --> 01:34:13.710
We actually used them
for a couple of plants
01:34:13.710 --> 01:34:15.450
for we had some issues
01:34:15.450 --> 01:34:18.160
that we're concerned
about whether or not
01:34:18.160 --> 01:34:21.280
they were freeze
related compressor failure
01:34:21.280 --> 01:34:23.200
at a plant in Alabama.
01:34:23.200 --> 01:34:27.980
And then also one in
Baytown here in Texas,
01:34:27.980 --> 01:34:29.860
but it turned out that wasn't the case,
01:34:29.860 --> 01:34:31.277
but they did monitor it for us,
01:34:31.277 --> 01:34:32.940
and we did depend on them.
01:34:32.940 --> 01:34:35.440
But from a weatherization perspective,
01:34:35.440 --> 01:34:36.820
they really don't add anything.
01:34:36.820 --> 01:34:40.573
They deliver you a unit
and it's up to you to decide
01:34:40.573 --> 01:34:42.217
how you want to protect it.
01:34:42.217 --> 01:34:43.250
Okay, thanks.
01:34:43.250 --> 01:34:44.083
Okay.
01:34:44.083 --> 01:34:45.820
And one more question on,
01:34:45.820 --> 01:34:46.653
now I'm curious.
01:34:46.653 --> 01:34:47.860
It sounds like you're very prepared,
01:34:47.860 --> 01:34:50.605
like you're already taking
proactive steps to be ready
01:34:50.605 --> 01:34:54.364
for this next winter based
on the February, 2021 event.
01:34:54.364 --> 01:34:57.760
Are you in the process of acquiring
01:34:57.760 --> 01:35:01.350
all the weatherization,
measures, equipment?
01:35:01.350 --> 01:35:04.540
Have you experienced
any supply chain issues?
01:35:04.540 --> 01:35:06.350
We're hoping to avoid those,
01:35:06.350 --> 01:35:08.400
because we're assuming
that everybody else
01:35:08.400 --> 01:35:10.290
is doing the same thing.
01:35:10.290 --> 01:35:11.860
And so we have an order in,
01:35:11.860 --> 01:35:13.570
and they've told us they can deliver
01:35:13.570 --> 01:35:16.130
for the instrument boxes and the TV,
01:35:16.130 --> 01:35:18.690
and the rest is us implementing it,
01:35:18.690 --> 01:35:21.790
in terms of installing
it with craft and labor.
01:35:21.790 --> 01:35:23.290
So.
01:35:23.290 --> 01:35:24.190
Okay, thank you.
01:35:27.540 --> 01:35:28.530
Thank you, Mr. Gates.
01:35:28.530 --> 01:35:29.363
All right, thank you.
01:35:29.363 --> 01:35:30.196
I appreciate your time.
01:35:30.196 --> 01:35:31.280
Very much.
01:35:31.280 --> 01:35:33.460
Next up we have the
Renewable Generation
01:35:33.460 --> 01:35:34.783
Weatherization panel.
01:35:54.494 --> 01:35:55.327
All right, good morning.
01:35:55.327 --> 01:35:56.160
Welcome.
01:35:56.160 --> 01:35:57.210
(clears throat)
01:35:57.210 --> 01:35:59.040
First off, thank you for having us.
01:35:59.040 --> 01:36:01.460
We appreciate the
opportunity to speak with you
01:36:01.460 --> 01:36:04.370
about this important topic.
01:36:04.370 --> 01:36:05.260
My name is Kirk Crews.
01:36:05.260 --> 01:36:07.380
I'm the Vice President
of Business Management
01:36:07.380 --> 01:36:10.160
for NextEra Energy Resources.
01:36:10.160 --> 01:36:12.210
I have with me, Mark Lemasney.
01:36:12.210 --> 01:36:15.250
He is I'm the Vice President
of our Power Generation group.
01:36:15.250 --> 01:36:18.057
So Mark has operated
wind farms, solar farms,
01:36:18.057 --> 01:36:19.607
fossil (indistinct),
01:36:20.460 --> 01:36:23.530
operated just about
every technology out there.
01:36:23.530 --> 01:36:26.670
And then we also, Daniel is here.
01:36:26.670 --> 01:36:28.260
Daniel, you wanna introduce yourself?
01:36:28.260 --> 01:36:29.093
Sure.
01:36:29.093 --> 01:36:30.820
Daniel (indistinct)
with General Electric
01:36:30.820 --> 01:36:31.757
on the (indistinct).
01:36:34.700 --> 01:36:35.577
Welcome.
01:36:35.577 --> 01:36:37.130
Sorry, with who?
01:36:37.130 --> 01:36:37.963
GE.
01:36:37.963 --> 01:36:38.796
Oh, GE.
01:36:38.796 --> 01:36:39.629
Got it.
01:36:39.629 --> 01:36:40.794
So thanks for
talking about us, sir.
01:36:40.794 --> 01:36:42.763
(laughs)
01:36:42.763 --> 01:36:45.140
All right, just briefly,
01:36:45.140 --> 01:36:48.620
this is sort of the plan of
what we'd like to cover today
01:36:48.620 --> 01:36:51.670
in terms of weatherization
of renewables.
01:36:51.670 --> 01:36:53.620
We're to spend the majority of our time
01:36:54.940 --> 01:36:56.750
on wind winterization.
01:36:56.750 --> 01:37:00.840
So Mark will spend a
little bit of time talking about
01:37:00.840 --> 01:37:04.110
turbines and how they operate
and the evolution of turbines.
01:37:04.110 --> 01:37:06.690
And then Daniel is going
to talk about operating
01:37:06.690 --> 01:37:09.920
in cold and hot
temperatures and then icing.
01:37:09.920 --> 01:37:10.753
Before we do that,
01:37:10.753 --> 01:37:12.900
we would like to spend
just a few minutes on solar
01:37:12.900 --> 01:37:14.270
and battery storage,
01:37:14.270 --> 01:37:17.520
and just give you a very
brief overview of operations.
01:37:17.520 --> 01:37:21.730
And then how we think
about them from hot conditions
01:37:21.730 --> 01:37:24.530
and cold conditions and the
way they're able to operate.
01:37:25.920 --> 01:37:28.980
So jumping into to solar.
01:37:28.980 --> 01:37:32.370
I think the key takeaway
as we think about solar in,
01:37:32.370 --> 01:37:34.900
we think about the weather conditions
01:37:34.900 --> 01:37:38.640
we typically experience in
Texas in terms of hot summers.
01:37:38.640 --> 01:37:41.060
And you can see some
of the cold temperatures
01:37:41.060 --> 01:37:45.370
is we feel comfortable
that solar can operate
01:37:45.370 --> 01:37:48.543
in those varying
degrees of temperatures.
01:37:52.310 --> 01:37:55.954
The electronics and solar
are an enclosed containers
01:37:55.954 --> 01:37:58.280
that we're able to
monitor the temperatures.
01:37:58.280 --> 01:38:01.460
And they're able to operate
at negative four degrees
01:38:01.460 --> 01:38:03.799
and up to 120 degrees.
01:38:03.799 --> 01:38:06.010
The basics on a solar panel
01:38:06.010 --> 01:38:11.010
is it's going to convert
sunlight into DC power.
01:38:11.080 --> 01:38:14.140
That DC power is
then fed into inverters,
01:38:14.140 --> 01:38:17.310
which are enclosed containers
on the right of the screen,
01:38:17.310 --> 01:38:21.230
and that converts it back
from DC power to AC power,
01:38:21.230 --> 01:38:22.570
and then feeds it to the grid.
01:38:22.570 --> 01:38:24.560
And within those containers,
01:38:24.560 --> 01:38:29.560
that's where we're able to
see the ability to operate it.
01:38:29.750 --> 01:38:33.100
Like I said, negative four
degrees and 120 degrees.
01:38:33.100 --> 01:38:36.460
The only maybe limiting factor on solar
01:38:36.460 --> 01:38:39.420
is if you get a significant
amount of snow accumulation
01:38:39.420 --> 01:38:40.253
on the panels,
01:38:40.253 --> 01:38:44.867
it may block the
production from the sun.
01:38:48.030 --> 01:38:50.700
There are essentially
two types of solar farms
01:38:50.700 --> 01:38:52.680
that typically get built
those with what we call
01:38:52.680 --> 01:38:55.890
a tracker system, and
then those that are fixed.
01:38:55.890 --> 01:38:59.790
And we have a picture of a
tracker system on the slide.
01:38:59.790 --> 01:39:01.650
It does what the name implies.
01:39:01.650 --> 01:39:05.710
It essentially shifts
the panels with the sun.
01:39:05.710 --> 01:39:08.800
If you were to get a large
amount of snow accumulation
01:39:10.028 --> 01:39:11.520
on the panels and he had a tracker,
01:39:11.520 --> 01:39:14.620
you could use the trackers
to essentially dump the snow
01:39:14.620 --> 01:39:15.453
to the ground.
01:39:17.730 --> 01:39:20.900
If you have fixed panels where
there's not a tracker system,
01:39:20.900 --> 01:39:23.143
then it has to be removed by hand.
01:39:24.110 --> 01:39:28.380
Can you maybe a high level
describe the price difference
01:39:28.380 --> 01:39:32.840
in terms of deployment
of tracker versus fixed?
01:39:32.840 --> 01:39:34.273
Sure.
01:39:34.273 --> 01:39:36.280
(indistinct).
01:39:36.280 --> 01:39:38.180
It's in range of 25%.
01:39:38.180 --> 01:39:39.620
Yeah, 25%.
01:39:39.620 --> 01:39:44.620
But I think one thing to keep
in mind is there's advantages
01:39:45.280 --> 01:39:50.280
to the tracker system in that
as it rotates in with the sun,
01:39:50.320 --> 01:39:52.597
you're getting better production.
01:39:52.597 --> 01:39:53.430
Right
01:39:53.430 --> 01:39:56.760
And so oftentimes
when you're looking
01:39:56.760 --> 01:39:57.870
at that investment choice,
01:39:57.870 --> 01:40:01.420
you're looking at the
resource and that drives it.
01:40:01.420 --> 01:40:04.863
For the solar farms we have
in Texas they are trackers.
01:40:06.410 --> 01:40:09.116
So the net cost is positive
when you add the two--
01:40:09.116 --> 01:40:09.949
It could be.
01:40:09.949 --> 01:40:10.782
It depends on the solar resource
01:40:10.782 --> 01:40:12.356
and the geographical location.
01:40:12.356 --> 01:40:13.413
Yeah.
01:40:15.020 --> 01:40:18.030
And what happens if
it gets to minus eight.
01:40:18.030 --> 01:40:19.430
What happens to the inverter?
01:40:19.430 --> 01:40:21.330
Does it shut down or is that a--
01:40:21.330 --> 01:40:23.040
If it gets to minus
four degrees,
01:40:23.040 --> 01:40:24.850
once you pass the minus
four degree threshold,
01:40:24.850 --> 01:40:25.960
the invertible shut down
to protect the (indistinct).
01:40:25.960 --> 01:40:26.860
It will automatically
shut down.
01:40:26.860 --> 01:40:28.090
Yes.
01:40:28.090 --> 01:40:29.090
As a protective measure?
01:40:29.090 --> 01:40:30.980
A protective nature, yes.
01:40:30.980 --> 01:40:32.173
And there's...
01:40:32.173 --> 01:40:35.850
On the opposite extreme,
when you go above 122,
01:40:35.850 --> 01:40:37.430
it actually will not shut down,
01:40:37.430 --> 01:40:38.467
it'll continue to operate.
01:40:38.467 --> 01:40:41.370
And it starts slowly derating
itself to protect electronics
01:40:41.370 --> 01:40:42.610
from being overheated.
01:40:42.610 --> 01:40:43.443
Gotcha.
01:40:43.443 --> 01:40:45.300
And when you say the
panels themselves are resilient
01:40:45.300 --> 01:40:46.673
to these extreme temperatures.
01:40:46.673 --> 01:40:48.110
Is that out of the box,
01:40:48.110 --> 01:40:49.310
it doesn't require any
additional investment?
01:40:49.310 --> 01:40:50.143
Correct.
01:40:50.143 --> 01:40:50.976
Gotcha.
01:40:50.976 --> 01:40:51.809
Correct.
01:40:54.250 --> 01:40:57.640
Battery storage systems
think of them similar
01:40:57.640 --> 01:41:00.010
to what we just discussed on solar.
01:41:00.010 --> 01:41:02.660
The batteries are enclosed in how
01:41:02.660 --> 01:41:04.260
and housed in controlled environment.
01:41:04.260 --> 01:41:06.420
So you have the containers
which you see on the right.
01:41:06.420 --> 01:41:08.880
The bottom is a inside of a container.
01:41:08.880 --> 01:41:10.010
So if you open it up.
01:41:10.010 --> 01:41:11.560
Typically, with batteries,
01:41:11.560 --> 01:41:14.420
what you're most concerned
about is them overheating.
01:41:14.420 --> 01:41:18.750
And so we have HVAC
systems in the containers
01:41:18.750 --> 01:41:21.300
that regulate the temperature.
01:41:21.300 --> 01:41:24.830
They have a similar ability to operate
01:41:24.830 --> 01:41:28.523
at the negative four to the
120 degrees Fahrenheit.
01:41:29.430 --> 01:41:32.730
So it's very similar
to solar again in close.
01:41:32.730 --> 01:41:35.480
So it allows us to be able
to regulate the temperature
01:41:35.480 --> 01:41:36.540
a little bit and...
01:41:36.540 --> 01:41:37.990
Out of the box, no additional--
01:41:37.990 --> 01:41:39.120
Correct.
01:41:39.120 --> 01:41:40.710
Correct.
01:41:40.710 --> 01:41:42.070
And when we design them,
01:41:42.070 --> 01:41:44.090
we design them with the
ability to have the HVAC system.
01:41:44.090 --> 01:41:46.570
I mean, there's a lot of
attention and time spent
01:41:46.570 --> 01:41:50.490
on the technology of the HVAC
system to give it that range.
01:41:50.490 --> 01:41:53.800
And so what you actually
see in a cold environment
01:41:53.800 --> 01:41:56.560
is it actually, you know,
01:41:56.560 --> 01:41:58.980
as long as it doesn't
go below negative four,
01:41:58.980 --> 01:42:00.320
the cold environment actually help.
01:42:00.320 --> 01:42:02.700
I mean, you don't worry about
the batteries not operating,
01:42:02.700 --> 01:42:03.980
that's not the risk profile.
01:42:03.980 --> 01:42:05.830
The risk profile is the extreme heat.
01:42:07.020 --> 01:42:12.020
So if you put a battery
system in North Dakota
01:42:12.580 --> 01:42:16.860
and the likelihood of
going below negative four,
01:42:16.860 --> 01:42:19.510
is there an enclosure
system or heating system
01:42:19.510 --> 01:42:20.870
or something else for the inverter
01:42:20.870 --> 01:42:22.610
that would allow you to operate there?
01:42:22.610 --> 01:42:26.240
Or is that a limitation of
that type of inverter or?
01:42:26.240 --> 01:42:28.580
Yeah, I mean, as an example,
01:42:28.580 --> 01:42:30.620
we have a battery system up in Maine
01:42:30.620 --> 01:42:33.650
and similar type
environment as North Dakota.
01:42:33.650 --> 01:42:36.240
And that container is actually
housed inside the building.
01:42:36.240 --> 01:42:38.625
So you can contain to
temperatures even better there.
01:42:38.625 --> 01:42:39.458
Okay.
01:42:39.458 --> 01:42:40.291
So.
01:42:40.291 --> 01:42:44.360
How low temperatures
allow that inverter to operate?
01:42:44.360 --> 01:42:47.620
I mean, it really comes
down to what temperatures
01:42:47.620 --> 01:42:48.907
can you maintain
internal to the building.
01:42:48.907 --> 01:42:50.440
And you've got heating
systems (indistinct)--
01:42:50.440 --> 01:42:51.461
How much
insulation (indistinct)?
01:42:51.461 --> 01:42:52.760
(indistinct) of employees.
01:42:52.760 --> 01:42:55.940
So it really takes that away
as a variable completely.
01:42:55.940 --> 01:42:56.773
Gotcha.
01:42:59.937 --> 01:43:00.960
Any other questions
on any other questions
01:43:00.960 --> 01:43:03.813
on solar or batteries
before we shift to wind?
01:43:05.110 --> 01:43:06.310
Good, all right.
01:43:06.310 --> 01:43:08.326
So with respect to wind,
01:43:08.326 --> 01:43:11.230
you can see illustrated on the right,
01:43:11.230 --> 01:43:14.810
the geographical location
of the ERCOT fleet,
01:43:14.810 --> 01:43:17.483
it's mostly Northwest and south.
01:43:18.480 --> 01:43:22.480
Wind began to be built in
Texas in the late nineties.
01:43:22.480 --> 01:43:27.130
So you can see wind
farms that are brand new
01:43:27.130 --> 01:43:30.520
to over 20 years old
about 10%, excuse me,
01:43:30.520 --> 01:43:34.220
about 40% of the fleet
is 10 years or older.
01:43:34.220 --> 01:43:37.780
In terms of our geographical footprint.
01:43:37.780 --> 01:43:41.480
We have just over three
and a half gigs of wind
01:43:41.480 --> 01:43:44.900
that we operate in
Texas that's about 13%.
01:43:44.900 --> 01:43:49.900
And then GEs turbines
represent about 43% of the fleet.
01:43:52.300 --> 01:43:54.500
So with that, let me
turn it over to Mark.
01:43:56.205 --> 01:43:57.038
Thank you.
01:43:57.038 --> 01:43:57.871
(clears throat)
01:43:57.871 --> 01:44:00.810
So obviously, wind technology
has evolved quite considerably
01:44:00.810 --> 01:44:01.660
over the years.
01:44:01.660 --> 01:44:04.970
The image here, the chart
shows you how it's progressed.
01:44:04.970 --> 01:44:09.610
And from the early 2003, you
can see at a rotor diameter,
01:44:09.610 --> 01:44:11.800
which is basically the
swept area of a wind turbine
01:44:11.800 --> 01:44:14.786
to capture the maximum
amount of wind energy.
01:44:14.786 --> 01:44:17.040
In a photograph there
are a picture there,
01:44:17.040 --> 01:44:20.830
that's about 71 meter, one
meter rotor diameter on the left
01:44:20.830 --> 01:44:22.510
and all the way to today's turbines
01:44:22.510 --> 01:44:24.230
now we're about 140 meters.
01:44:24.230 --> 01:44:27.480
So considerable technology advancements,
01:44:27.480 --> 01:44:31.330
obviously, a lot of
changes in the design
01:44:31.330 --> 01:44:33.780
and capabilities of the
equipment over the years.
01:44:35.120 --> 01:44:37.280
Typical wind turbines, two
to three megawatt turbine
01:44:37.280 --> 01:44:38.990
today costs about two
to three million dollars.
01:44:38.990 --> 01:44:40.610
That's for an individual turbine.
01:44:40.610 --> 01:44:43.930
And it generates energy
anywhere between eight miles
01:44:43.930 --> 01:44:45.650
per hour and 56 miles per hour.
01:44:45.650 --> 01:44:47.530
So basically we call
the eight miles per hour,
01:44:47.530 --> 01:44:48.880
your cutting speed.
01:44:48.880 --> 01:44:51.540
So once you see around eight
miles per hour of wind energy
01:44:51.540 --> 01:44:52.770
at that elevation,
01:44:52.770 --> 01:44:55.120
that's when they'll
start producing output,
01:44:55.120 --> 01:44:57.800
and they'll run all the way
up to 56 miles per hour.
01:44:57.800 --> 01:45:01.760
Now, 56 miles per
hour is not a hard cutoff.
01:45:01.760 --> 01:45:04.940
It basically there's protection
inside the wind turbines
01:45:04.940 --> 01:45:07.560
that looks at if you're
above 56 miles per hour
01:45:07.560 --> 01:45:09.200
for a 10 minute period,
01:45:09.200 --> 01:45:11.340
then it would shut
determined on to protect that
01:45:11.340 --> 01:45:14.550
You can operate up to 68
miles per hour for 30 seconds.
01:45:14.550 --> 01:45:15.810
If you were above it for 30 seconds,
01:45:15.810 --> 01:45:17.100
it will take it offline.
01:45:17.100 --> 01:45:19.680
And then to storm protection
at 76 miles per hour.
01:45:19.680 --> 01:45:22.360
And I'm speaking particularly
to the GE technology,
01:45:22.360 --> 01:45:24.940
which is over 70%
of our current portfolio.
01:45:24.940 --> 01:45:27.820
So what was the last
thing you get to 68 and then--
01:45:27.820 --> 01:45:29.738
68, you got at 30 Seconds,
01:45:29.738 --> 01:45:32.527
76 mile per hour, you
got about three seconds.
01:45:32.527 --> 01:45:33.710
And that's storm protection.
01:45:33.710 --> 01:45:34.840
When you say shut it down.
01:45:34.840 --> 01:45:36.180
It'll shut it down.
01:45:36.180 --> 01:45:38.010
It'll fetter the blades out of the wind,
01:45:38.010 --> 01:45:39.710
and it will stop producing energy.
01:45:39.710 --> 01:45:41.440
So it physically stop turning?
01:45:41.440 --> 01:45:42.273
Right.
01:45:42.273 --> 01:45:43.420
As soon as conditions clear,
01:45:43.420 --> 01:45:44.720
it comes right back online itself.
01:45:44.720 --> 01:45:47.400
For just driven by the
rotating of the blades?
01:45:47.400 --> 01:45:48.233
Absolutely.
01:45:48.233 --> 01:45:49.066
Okay, gotcha.
01:45:50.580 --> 01:45:51.660
What would you say?
01:45:51.660 --> 01:45:54.146
I mean, these things are obviously rated
01:45:54.146 --> 01:45:55.300
for certain conditions,
01:45:55.300 --> 01:45:57.460
but what's the average
hurricane force winds
01:45:57.460 --> 01:45:58.600
that are experienced?
01:45:58.600 --> 01:46:00.150
I mean, I'm just thinking
about South Texas
01:46:00.150 --> 01:46:01.150
and wind turbines.
01:46:01.150 --> 01:46:03.410
Yeah, I mean,
what is a category?
01:46:03.410 --> 01:46:07.160
One is 75 mile per hour winds.
01:46:07.160 --> 01:46:07.993
So.
01:46:07.993 --> 01:46:09.480
So you'll shut
down well in advance
01:46:09.480 --> 01:46:10.950
of landfall of a hurricane--
01:46:10.950 --> 01:46:13.160
No, no we shut down
only when those winds
01:46:13.160 --> 01:46:14.599
are actually experienced at that site.
01:46:14.599 --> 01:46:15.432
Okay.
01:46:15.432 --> 01:46:16.265
Yeah.
01:46:16.265 --> 01:46:17.098
They do not shut
down automatic.
01:46:17.098 --> 01:46:17.990
All automatic.
01:46:17.990 --> 01:46:19.890
And you may even have occasions where,
01:46:19.890 --> 01:46:22.100
you know, half the sites
running half the sites not running,
01:46:22.100 --> 01:46:25.220
because there's a difference
in the wind resources
01:46:25.220 --> 01:46:27.270
experience across the
different terrain are different.
01:46:27.270 --> 01:46:28.580
Yeah.
01:46:28.580 --> 01:46:30.710
And so on the full rating,
01:46:30.710 --> 01:46:35.210
the latest 140 meter diameter
01:46:35.210 --> 01:46:40.030
is how many megawatts
per unit at a time?
01:46:40.030 --> 01:46:43.000
Or what's a maximum
they can produce at 56?
01:46:43.000 --> 01:46:46.280
Oh, (indistinct) at
56 miles per hour.
01:46:46.280 --> 01:46:47.113
Three megawatts (indistinct).
01:46:47.113 --> 01:46:47.946
Three megawatts.
01:46:47.946 --> 01:46:48.779
Yeah.
01:46:48.779 --> 01:46:49.612
Okay.
01:46:49.612 --> 01:46:50.757
Yeah, three megawatts
there'll be a (indistinct).
01:46:51.660 --> 01:46:52.620
That's where it tops off?
01:46:52.620 --> 01:46:53.453
That's right.
01:46:53.453 --> 01:46:54.378
Gotcha.
01:46:54.378 --> 01:46:55.211
Right.
01:46:55.211 --> 01:46:56.044
I'm sorry, you did say,
01:46:56.044 --> 01:47:00.436
but above what wind miles per hour
01:47:00.436 --> 01:47:02.880
do your blades start
automatically shutting off again?
01:47:02.880 --> 01:47:03.780
Sorry, sir.
01:47:03.780 --> 01:47:07.336
Yeah, it's dependent not
just on the speed of the wind,
01:47:07.336 --> 01:47:10.049
but also the amount of
time you're in that condition.
01:47:10.049 --> 01:47:10.882
Okay.
01:47:10.882 --> 01:47:12.190
So like 56 you can operate
01:47:12.190 --> 01:47:13.910
in that condition for 10 minutes.
01:47:13.910 --> 01:47:17.300
So it has to be sustained
above 56 for a 10 minute period
01:47:17.300 --> 01:47:19.300
before we shut it off to protect them.
01:47:19.300 --> 01:47:23.040
If it's dropping in and
out, it'll stay online, right?
01:47:23.040 --> 01:47:26.223
And then it goes up in steps from there.
01:47:29.349 --> 01:47:30.499
Any other questions on?
01:47:31.560 --> 01:47:35.040
Okay, the other thing
obviously is as we site
01:47:35.040 --> 01:47:37.480
or wind facilities and we make sure
01:47:37.480 --> 01:47:40.153
we cite them out of
floodplains to make sure
01:47:40.153 --> 01:47:41.900
that there's no risk of
any flooding damage
01:47:41.900 --> 01:47:43.100
to any of the equipment.
01:47:48.340 --> 01:47:51.927
So this is a standard
wind turbine overview.
01:47:51.927 --> 01:47:55.630
Like I mentioned, we have
a wide range of technology
01:47:55.630 --> 01:47:57.800
within our fleet in Texas.
01:47:57.800 --> 01:48:00.730
Our first units were installed in 2001,
01:48:00.730 --> 01:48:03.680
and they're 0.7 megawatt turbines,
01:48:03.680 --> 01:48:06.270
and they got 47 meter rotors, right?
01:48:06.270 --> 01:48:08.840
So that's the swept
area of the entire rotor.
01:48:08.840 --> 01:48:11.340
So the diameter of the rotors.
01:48:11.340 --> 01:48:12.452
And then till today,
01:48:12.452 --> 01:48:15.930
this year we currently have
machines up to 2.8 megawatts
01:48:15.930 --> 01:48:19.600
with 127 meter at diameter rotor.
01:48:19.600 --> 01:48:22.860
And so when you talk about
how wind turbines operate?
01:48:22.860 --> 01:48:24.110
I'll start really with the pitcher
01:48:24.110 --> 01:48:25.650
and you talk about the blades.
01:48:25.650 --> 01:48:27.870
So obviously the blades
capture the wind energy
01:48:27.870 --> 01:48:29.680
to kinetic energy into wind,
01:48:29.680 --> 01:48:31.830
and they convert that into
rotating mechanical energy.
01:48:31.830 --> 01:48:36.290
So when a wind turbine is
offline initially with low winds,
01:48:36.290 --> 01:48:38.350
the blades will be pointing
directly into the wind.
01:48:38.350 --> 01:48:40.287
As the wind starts picking up,
01:48:40.287 --> 01:48:43.270
the blades will capture
that maximum mono lift
01:48:43.270 --> 01:48:44.650
and the turbine will start coming online
01:48:44.650 --> 01:48:46.270
automatically itself.
01:48:46.270 --> 01:48:48.960
It uses a pitch system
which each of the blades
01:48:48.960 --> 01:48:50.520
are controlled independently.
01:48:50.520 --> 01:48:53.810
In order to capture that
wind and rotate the shaft.
01:48:53.810 --> 01:48:55.370
You have a main bearing.
01:48:55.370 --> 01:48:59.030
You can see here as you
move back from the blades,
01:48:59.030 --> 01:49:02.540
you have a main bearing that
supports the load of the shaft
01:49:02.540 --> 01:49:05.090
and take staff rotating
energy from the blades
01:49:05.090 --> 01:49:07.620
and transfers it into a gearbox.
01:49:07.620 --> 01:49:11.530
That is a low speed, 20
RPM when it's a full output.
01:49:11.530 --> 01:49:13.660
So what the gearbox
does is it takes that 20 RPM
01:49:13.660 --> 01:49:14.880
and it converts it into high speed
01:49:14.880 --> 01:49:16.340
to feed it into the generator.
01:49:16.340 --> 01:49:17.570
And then insight and your generator,
01:49:17.570 --> 01:49:20.120
your generator converts
that mechanical energy
01:49:20.120 --> 01:49:21.740
into electrical energy.
01:49:21.740 --> 01:49:23.270
From there it's fetched through a cable,
01:49:23.270 --> 01:49:26.090
goes down tower into
a collection system,
01:49:26.090 --> 01:49:28.803
into your transformers
and boost it onto the grid.
01:49:29.790 --> 01:49:32.140
Few things to point out
to support that as well,
01:49:32.140 --> 01:49:33.850
is your weather station.
01:49:33.850 --> 01:49:37.220
Your weather station
essentially includes a wind vane,
01:49:37.220 --> 01:49:39.100
which is looking at which
way that prevailing wind
01:49:39.100 --> 01:49:40.770
is coming from at any given time.
01:49:40.770 --> 01:49:42.790
And what it actually does
is it tells the controller,
01:49:42.790 --> 01:49:44.840
Hey, winds coming out of the south.
01:49:44.840 --> 01:49:46.220
And it turns the turbine around
01:49:46.220 --> 01:49:48.470
directly into that to
capture the maximum wind.
01:49:48.470 --> 01:49:50.470
The way it turns the turbine around
01:49:50.470 --> 01:49:52.520
is that y'all system
underneath the second cell,
01:49:52.520 --> 01:49:54.020
which is a big gearing system.
01:49:54.020 --> 01:49:57.110
And what it does is it just
rotates the entire turbine
01:49:57.110 --> 01:49:59.730
into that wind to capture
the maximum wind.
01:49:59.730 --> 01:50:02.140
Also up there, you have an anemometer,
01:50:02.140 --> 01:50:03.840
which is what's reading your wind speed.
01:50:03.840 --> 01:50:05.760
And that's what it controls
it's protective settings
01:50:05.760 --> 01:50:06.633
based on it.
01:50:09.930 --> 01:50:11.823
I'll pause for any questions.
01:50:14.465 --> 01:50:15.504
We're good.
01:50:15.504 --> 01:50:17.565
All right.
01:50:17.565 --> 01:50:19.427
Thank you.
01:50:19.427 --> 01:50:20.427
All right.
01:50:21.592 --> 01:50:22.425
Thank you.
01:50:22.425 --> 01:50:24.833
I'll jump through the intro here,
01:50:24.833 --> 01:50:28.490
but one point I did wanna
highlight with the GE
01:50:28.490 --> 01:50:30.670
mentioned the fleet
size here you're in Texas,
01:50:30.670 --> 01:50:33.140
but we have just
looking around the globe
01:50:33.140 --> 01:50:36.940
we have about 49,000 wind
turbines installed worldwide.
01:50:36.940 --> 01:50:41.183
And about just over
7,000 or so here in Texas.
01:50:43.427 --> 01:50:45.363
Just to put some perspective on these.
01:50:46.425 --> 01:50:48.253
I do wanna speak a little bit about
01:50:48.253 --> 01:50:50.120
just the temperature ranges.
01:50:50.120 --> 01:50:52.270
We'll certainly focus
on the cold weather side,
01:50:52.270 --> 01:50:54.800
but did wanna talk
through the hot weather
01:50:54.800 --> 01:50:58.453
since that's been a point of
discussion especially today.
01:51:00.530 --> 01:51:02.270
Our standard weather turbines operate
01:51:02.270 --> 01:51:05.690
between five and 104 degrees Fahrenheit.
01:51:05.690 --> 01:51:08.360
The five degree limit
is a fairly hard limit
01:51:08.360 --> 01:51:10.240
that I'll go to in a
little bit more detail
01:51:10.240 --> 01:51:11.257
on the following slide.
01:51:11.257 --> 01:51:14.730
The 104 is a softer limit,
01:51:14.730 --> 01:51:16.270
similar to what Mark was just describing
01:51:16.270 --> 01:51:17.500
with the solar inverters,
01:51:17.500 --> 01:51:20.350
it's really around component protection.
01:51:20.350 --> 01:51:22.870
So we have individual
temperature sensors
01:51:22.870 --> 01:51:25.230
on individual components that we monitor
01:51:25.230 --> 01:51:28.150
and curtail the turbine
in order to protect those.
01:51:28.150 --> 01:51:29.650
So that's the point of failure.
01:51:29.650 --> 01:51:32.500
The high end of the temperature
spectrum is the inverter?
01:51:33.380 --> 01:51:34.250
Other electronics.
01:51:34.250 --> 01:51:35.570
And other electronics.
01:51:35.570 --> 01:51:36.430
Correct.
01:51:36.430 --> 01:51:37.263
Correct.
01:51:37.263 --> 01:51:38.330
Yeah, we will look at the gearbox,
01:51:38.330 --> 01:51:41.400
the generator, the
inverter system that's there,
01:51:41.400 --> 01:51:43.120
as well as a few other
electronic components,
01:51:43.120 --> 01:51:45.690
but it's almost all electronics.
01:51:45.690 --> 01:51:48.940
Okay, a lot of the systems
have individual cooling systems
01:51:48.940 --> 01:51:52.590
and as long as they can
maintain the cooling conditions
01:51:52.590 --> 01:51:53.630
for that component,
01:51:53.630 --> 01:51:56.130
we'll continue to
operate even above 104.
01:51:56.130 --> 01:51:58.080
Very cool and components
for the electronics
01:51:58.080 --> 01:51:59.830
or up on the blade or that.
01:51:59.830 --> 01:52:03.410
Yeah, so fans in the
cabinets for the electronics,
01:52:03.410 --> 01:52:05.540
you've got ventilation systems
01:52:05.540 --> 01:52:09.530
and just like a radiator for
cooling of your gearboxes
01:52:09.530 --> 01:52:10.480
and your vehicle components.
01:52:10.480 --> 01:52:14.320
Okay, so it's both off of
the actual windmill structure
01:52:14.320 --> 01:52:16.710
and included in the
windmill structure or no.
01:52:16.710 --> 01:52:18.780
Up in the top where I was
showing you a while ago.
01:52:18.780 --> 01:52:19.613
Okay.
01:52:19.613 --> 01:52:20.480
Internal to that top section,
01:52:20.480 --> 01:52:22.510
you've got all different
individual cooling systems
01:52:22.510 --> 01:52:24.150
for each of the major components.
01:52:24.150 --> 01:52:24.983
Gotcha.
01:52:24.983 --> 01:52:25.942
Yep.
01:52:25.942 --> 01:52:30.440
And is that 104 upper
limit up at the turbine site
01:52:30.440 --> 01:52:31.900
or is that at the ground level?
01:52:31.900 --> 01:52:32.733
Turbine side.
01:52:32.733 --> 01:52:33.710
Turbine side.
01:52:33.710 --> 01:52:36.360
It's a temperature that's
right outside in the cell.
01:52:36.360 --> 01:52:37.193
That's right.
01:52:37.193 --> 01:52:38.703
Again, what's key
is it's not a hard limit
01:52:38.703 --> 01:52:41.543
that we often see are turbines running.
01:52:42.540 --> 01:52:44.090
Is there like an
average differential
01:52:44.090 --> 01:52:48.970
between ground temperature and 300 feet?
01:52:48.970 --> 01:52:51.689
I mean, is that a three
or four degree difference
01:52:51.689 --> 01:52:53.770
or, I mean, I know
it has to do with wind
01:52:53.770 --> 01:52:58.571
and all sorts of things,
but is there just a gas.
01:52:58.571 --> 01:53:00.519
I'll have to ask
a climatologist.
01:53:00.519 --> 01:53:01.985
(laughs)
01:53:01.985 --> 01:53:03.272
(indistinct) a
couple of degrees.
01:53:03.272 --> 01:53:07.290
Couple degrees (indistinct)
01:53:07.290 --> 01:53:08.270
So in addition to that,
01:53:08.270 --> 01:53:10.430
that standard weather operation
01:53:10.430 --> 01:53:11.572
really there's two solutions
01:53:11.572 --> 01:53:15.870
that we provide today
around cold weather operation.
01:53:15.870 --> 01:53:19.200
One, we call winter ice operation mode.
01:53:19.200 --> 01:53:20.870
And I'll go into this
in a little more detail
01:53:20.870 --> 01:53:22.260
on the following slide,
01:53:22.260 --> 01:53:24.360
and then a cold weather extreme package
01:53:24.360 --> 01:53:25.320
that's available as...
01:53:25.320 --> 01:53:27.830
Both of those are available
as a new unit offering
01:53:27.830 --> 01:53:30.923
as well as a retrofit
for existing fleet.
01:53:33.300 --> 01:53:35.240
And then the following two points
01:53:35.240 --> 01:53:38.100
just wanna touch on
some of the technologies
01:53:38.100 --> 01:53:41.130
that have been in the news
talked about a lot recently,
01:53:41.130 --> 01:53:45.320
especially after
February, GE as a whole,
01:53:45.320 --> 01:53:50.170
we purchased LM wind
power in 2017, 2018 timeframe,
01:53:50.170 --> 01:53:52.520
which is the world's
largest blade manufacturer
01:53:53.846 --> 01:53:57.520
between them and
ourselves have quite a history
01:53:57.520 --> 01:53:59.580
of blade technology development,
01:53:59.580 --> 01:54:02.520
including those two
solutions around coatings
01:54:02.520 --> 01:54:07.200
on those blade services
as well as heating solutions
01:54:07.200 --> 01:54:09.020
for heating blades.
01:54:09.020 --> 01:54:11.890
And unfortunately the isotropic coating.
01:54:11.890 --> 01:54:15.583
So coatings that tried to shed ice,
01:54:15.583 --> 01:54:19.140
they're just not a proven
technology at the moment,
01:54:19.140 --> 01:54:22.070
but we do continue to investigate
01:54:22.070 --> 01:54:24.330
those as we proceed forward.
01:54:24.330 --> 01:54:26.760
But right now, because they
aren't a proven technology,
01:54:26.760 --> 01:54:28.760
it's not an offering that we have today.
01:54:30.540 --> 01:54:32.940
And the hidden blade
solutions aren't either.
01:54:32.940 --> 01:54:33.773
Correct.
01:54:33.773 --> 01:54:37.023
So for currently not
offered in the United States.
01:54:38.060 --> 01:54:43.060
We do have specific
offerings in Europe for that.
01:54:43.550 --> 01:54:46.200
Okay, what are the
constraints on the heated blade?
01:54:48.330 --> 01:54:51.720
It really gets down to the
type of ice you experience
01:54:51.720 --> 01:54:54.690
and the number of days
that you experience ice.
01:54:54.690 --> 01:54:57.550
So just to put some
things in perspective
01:54:58.430 --> 01:55:01.990
of that 49,000 turbines that
we have installed globally,
01:55:01.990 --> 01:55:06.330
around 300 of them have
this ice mitigation system
01:55:06.330 --> 01:55:07.960
and they're all in the Nordic region.
01:55:07.960 --> 01:55:09.807
So Sweden, Finland and--
01:55:10.740 --> 01:55:11.573
Gotcha.
01:55:11.573 --> 01:55:13.950
So that sounds like
an economic constraint
01:55:13.950 --> 01:55:15.650
rather than a technical constraint
01:55:16.500 --> 01:55:20.800
in terms of utilization
of the heating resource.
01:55:20.800 --> 01:55:22.460
There is a technical
constraint component,
01:55:22.460 --> 01:55:26.490
and when I get into
discussing, I'll hit that.
01:55:26.490 --> 01:55:27.537
Can I ask you a question about,
01:55:27.537 --> 01:55:31.580
if you say you have 7,000
megawatts here in ERCOT,
01:55:31.580 --> 01:55:33.210
maybe if that's a little bit more,
01:55:33.210 --> 01:55:36.250
if you include the
panhandle, the SPP area,
01:55:36.250 --> 01:55:39.020
but do you have a percentage of those
01:55:39.020 --> 01:55:41.290
that have either one of
these ice packages on there?
01:55:41.290 --> 01:55:43.460
The ice or the-- Sure.
01:55:43.460 --> 01:55:48.460
so in insects is of
it is 7,000 turbines.
01:55:48.620 --> 01:55:49.780
Oh, I'm sorry turbines.
01:55:49.780 --> 01:55:50.613
Got it.
Yeah, that's okay.
01:55:50.613 --> 01:55:54.033
There's around 6,000 of them
have that winter ice operation
01:55:54.033 --> 01:55:57.040
mode control installed,
01:55:57.040 --> 01:56:01.890
and around 1800 of them
have the cold weather
01:56:01.890 --> 01:56:02.723
extreme package.
01:56:06.330 --> 01:56:09.410
Is the optimum to have both,
01:56:09.410 --> 01:56:13.680
or does the cold weather extreme package
01:56:13.680 --> 01:56:15.870
come with the winter ice operation mode
01:56:15.870 --> 01:56:16.990
or are they two different?
01:56:16.990 --> 01:56:18.719
They are two
distinct offerings.
01:56:18.719 --> 01:56:21.860
And on the next page I'll
get into a little bit more detail.
01:56:21.860 --> 01:56:22.693
Got it.
01:56:22.693 --> 01:56:23.526
They address different things.
01:56:23.526 --> 01:56:24.359
Sorry, to get--
01:56:24.359 --> 01:56:25.192
It's a great question.
01:56:25.192 --> 01:56:27.210
Good lead into the following slide.
01:56:27.210 --> 01:56:30.460
For relevance, the
isentropic coating
01:56:30.460 --> 01:56:34.660
'cause we have a fleet of
turbines all the way from Texas
01:56:34.660 --> 01:56:35.950
all the way to Canada.
01:56:35.950 --> 01:56:38.660
We have been testing that
technology independent of GE
01:56:38.660 --> 01:56:41.790
and about 400 turbines
across our Northern fleet.
01:56:41.790 --> 01:56:44.880
And we were able to
look at similar cases
01:56:44.880 --> 01:56:46.600
that were experienced here in Texas,
01:56:46.600 --> 01:56:49.670
and it would have provided
very minimal benefit.
01:56:49.670 --> 01:56:51.620
The way the isentropic
coating really works
01:56:51.620 --> 01:56:53.863
is it's for all our purposes
think about Rain-X
01:56:53.863 --> 01:56:55.950
that you put on your windshield, right?
01:56:55.950 --> 01:57:00.270
So it reduces the adhesion
of icing that the blade.
01:57:00.270 --> 01:57:04.060
And so what happens is
it allows it to shed quicker,
01:57:04.060 --> 01:57:06.100
but because of the
high humidity conditions
01:57:06.100 --> 01:57:07.690
that were experienced here in Texas
01:57:07.690 --> 01:57:10.510
with the type of ice
that Daniel will talk to,
01:57:10.510 --> 01:57:11.880
it would quickly overwhelm this,
01:57:11.880 --> 01:57:13.690
and it would only have
promoted the ice shed
01:57:13.690 --> 01:57:15.640
in a couple of hours
faster on the back end
01:57:15.640 --> 01:57:17.063
of the 10 to 12 day event.
01:57:18.040 --> 01:57:20.663
So unfortunately minimal
benefit from that solution.
01:57:24.970 --> 01:57:26.620
All right.
01:57:26.620 --> 01:57:28.040
So the first one, we'll talk about
01:57:28.040 --> 01:57:29.900
the winterized operation mode.
01:57:29.900 --> 01:57:32.460
The picture in the top left
01:57:32.460 --> 01:57:35.320
is what we refer to as a power curve.
01:57:35.320 --> 01:57:38.280
So Mark was just referring
to how much energy
01:57:38.280 --> 01:57:40.283
we generate at different wind speeds.
01:57:41.160 --> 01:57:42.250
For wind turbine,
01:57:42.250 --> 01:57:46.110
it's kind of an S shape
and it's kept at the top
01:57:46.110 --> 01:57:47.240
at our rating.
01:57:47.240 --> 01:57:48.640
So three megawatts in the example
01:57:48.640 --> 01:57:50.240
that Mark was just referring to.
01:57:51.120 --> 01:57:54.893
And that's exemplified with
the gray dots on the chart.
01:57:55.760 --> 01:57:59.440
Whenever if you have winter
ice operation mode installed,
01:57:59.440 --> 01:58:03.230
and as you start to
accumulate ice on the blades,
01:58:03.230 --> 01:58:06.063
the effectiveness of
those blades starts to drop.
01:58:07.090 --> 01:58:09.940
You basically it's an
aerodynamic fouling.
01:58:09.940 --> 01:58:11.200
You just have this buildups,
01:58:11.200 --> 01:58:13.010
or you're not getting as
much lift on the blades
01:58:13.010 --> 01:58:13.850
as you expected,
01:58:13.850 --> 01:58:16.170
and so you start to
generate less and less power,
01:58:16.170 --> 01:58:17.820
and it becomes actually the red dots
01:58:17.820 --> 01:58:19.870
that you see on the
bottom of that chart.
01:58:20.730 --> 01:58:24.130
And if you don't have
this solution installed,
01:58:24.130 --> 01:58:27.380
you would eventually stall
out and shut down the turbine.
01:58:27.380 --> 01:58:28.760
But with this solution installed,
01:58:28.760 --> 01:58:30.900
it allows you to continue operating.
01:58:30.900 --> 01:58:32.310
It's not all the way
back up to the gray,
01:58:32.310 --> 01:58:33.910
but you're able to hit the blue.
01:58:35.500 --> 01:58:38.660
So this solution
specifically controls base
01:58:38.660 --> 01:58:41.660
and trying to address
the initial accretion
01:58:41.660 --> 01:58:43.190
of ice on blades.
01:58:43.190 --> 01:58:47.070
So what does the solution
actually do in practice?
01:58:47.070 --> 01:58:48.026
Great question.
01:58:48.026 --> 01:58:51.280
As mark was saying, we have
pitch systems on our blades
01:58:51.280 --> 01:58:54.870
that change how their angle of attack.
01:58:54.870 --> 01:58:57.280
And it's really changing that angle.
01:58:57.280 --> 01:59:01.570
So we have a set schedule
in our control systems today
01:59:01.570 --> 01:59:04.220
for that, what it should
be at certain wind speeds.
01:59:04.220 --> 01:59:05.740
And it's looking at that curve and says,
01:59:05.740 --> 01:59:07.630
Ooh, we're not generating
as much power as we should.
01:59:07.630 --> 01:59:09.500
Let's adjust that a little bit.
01:59:09.500 --> 01:59:11.490
And then it's able
to bring that back up.
01:59:11.490 --> 01:59:12.730
Okay, so that's...
01:59:13.956 --> 01:59:14.789
Correct me if I'm wrong.
01:59:14.789 --> 01:59:17.440
It sounds like that's a programming
adjustment to increase--
01:59:17.440 --> 01:59:18.273
Software adjustment.
01:59:18.273 --> 01:59:19.106
It's a software.
01:59:19.106 --> 01:59:20.870
So it doesn't actually
physically change
01:59:20.870 --> 01:59:22.040
any element of the ice,
01:59:22.040 --> 01:59:24.580
it just optimizes the angle of the blade
01:59:24.580 --> 01:59:28.970
to get back up a power
curve for generation?
01:59:28.970 --> 01:59:29.803
Yes, sir.
01:59:29.803 --> 01:59:30.680
Gotcha.
01:59:30.680 --> 01:59:31.513
Correct.
01:59:31.513 --> 01:59:32.453
And depending on the technology
01:59:32.453 --> 01:59:34.453
the different (indistinct) technology,
01:59:36.070 --> 01:59:38.440
sometimes it can oscillate
the blade intentionally
01:59:38.440 --> 01:59:40.800
to basically try to shake
off the ice is what it does.
01:59:40.800 --> 01:59:42.920
Okay, just like
the solar panels?
01:59:42.920 --> 01:59:43.900
Yeah.
01:59:43.900 --> 01:59:45.680
A lot of programming
to dump it.
01:59:45.680 --> 01:59:47.370
But it does it
automatically itself,
01:59:47.370 --> 01:59:49.220
does not require an operator action.
01:59:49.220 --> 01:59:53.633
So is this solution sort of...
01:59:53.633 --> 01:59:56.530
Does programming measure?
01:59:56.530 --> 02:00:01.530
Does it detect it by
sensitivity or degrees
02:00:02.360 --> 02:00:03.490
or like how does...
02:00:03.490 --> 02:00:06.750
So it's independent
of temperature.
02:00:06.750 --> 02:00:08.880
It's purely looking at how much power
02:00:08.880 --> 02:00:11.483
am I generating at this wind speed?
02:00:12.640 --> 02:00:15.920
And is it different from expected?
02:00:15.920 --> 02:00:20.020
So there's a certain
band of accessibility.
02:00:20.020 --> 02:00:21.480
And once it gets outside of that band,
02:00:21.480 --> 02:00:24.653
it starts to adjust that pitch activity.
02:00:28.630 --> 02:00:31.310
The turbine knows when
it's on its power curve,
02:00:31.310 --> 02:00:33.180
because it's got the
wind speed anemometer
02:00:33.180 --> 02:00:34.013
I was referring to.
02:00:34.013 --> 02:00:35.490
And when it falls off its power curve
02:00:35.490 --> 02:00:36.720
it knows something's wrong.
02:00:36.720 --> 02:00:38.450
So it knows in this condition,
02:00:38.450 --> 02:00:40.300
he's not being conditioned
that's like the icing.
02:00:40.300 --> 02:00:41.740
So it turns on that (indistinct).
02:00:41.740 --> 02:00:44.230
Reset optimized blade
angle for generation.
02:00:44.230 --> 02:00:45.350
Correct.
02:00:45.350 --> 02:00:46.350
Gotcha.
02:00:46.350 --> 02:00:48.250
And I may have
heard this incorrectly,
02:00:48.250 --> 02:00:50.260
but out of your 7,000 turbines
02:00:51.310 --> 02:00:53.050
that your equipment is installed on,
02:00:53.050 --> 02:00:55.463
you have 1700 that are winterized.
02:00:56.620 --> 02:00:58.930
Around 6,000,
have this winter ice.
02:00:58.930 --> 02:00:59.840
Okay, 6,000.
02:00:59.840 --> 02:01:00.673
Okay, great.
02:01:00.673 --> 02:01:04.140
So 6,000 of them could
be rated from five degrees
02:01:04.140 --> 02:01:05.160
to minus 22.
02:01:05.160 --> 02:01:06.981
Oh, sorry, just
for the first item.
02:01:06.981 --> 02:01:07.814
Just the first item.
02:01:07.814 --> 02:01:08.647
Okay, great.
02:01:08.647 --> 02:01:09.480
For the second item,
02:01:09.480 --> 02:01:10.750
that one is closer to your number.
02:01:10.750 --> 02:01:11.724
It's 1800.
02:01:11.724 --> 02:01:12.720
1,800.
02:01:12.720 --> 02:01:15.170
Okay, so in December of 1983,
02:01:15.170 --> 02:01:18.283
the high was 12 and
the low was negative one.
02:01:22.840 --> 02:01:23.673
Okay.
02:01:23.673 --> 02:01:26.680
When did you
develop this solution?
02:01:26.680 --> 02:01:28.589
Like around what timeframe?
02:01:28.589 --> 02:01:33.589
The first one was I would say
around 2009, 2010 timeframe.
02:01:35.528 --> 02:01:40.528
So when your
company NextEra decides
02:01:41.500 --> 02:01:45.823
to put wind turbines in Texas,
02:01:46.680 --> 02:01:49.540
is this something that you offer like,
02:01:49.540 --> 02:01:52.110
you know, here are
here all the different,
02:01:52.110 --> 02:01:55.530
I guess, (clears throat)
additional features you can add
02:01:55.530 --> 02:01:58.020
to your wind turbine and they
decide whether they add it,
02:01:58.020 --> 02:02:00.130
or is it just sort of
kind of a standard,
02:02:00.130 --> 02:02:03.760
has become a standard sort of addition
02:02:03.760 --> 02:02:05.840
to most wind turbines.
02:02:05.840 --> 02:02:08.740
So the first one
winterized operation mode
02:02:08.740 --> 02:02:12.270
has become standard today for new units.
02:02:12.270 --> 02:02:14.470
The second one is not.
02:02:14.470 --> 02:02:16.180
That is an option.
02:02:16.180 --> 02:02:17.290
So...
02:02:18.760 --> 02:02:21.680
Specific to the first one
we have that installed at all
02:02:21.680 --> 02:02:23.040
on equipment.
02:02:23.040 --> 02:02:23.873
Okay.
02:02:23.873 --> 02:02:26.200
Which has over
70% of our Texas fleet.
02:02:26.200 --> 02:02:30.180
Okay, and that's a lot
of our wind generation
02:02:30.180 --> 02:02:33.330
was put in place around CREZ, right?
02:02:33.330 --> 02:02:38.280
In which started, you
know, about 2007, 8, 9.
02:02:38.280 --> 02:02:40.340
So it sounds like a good chunk of,
02:02:40.340 --> 02:02:42.230
as you said to tie
back to your statistics,
02:02:42.230 --> 02:02:45.440
6,000 out of 7,000
turbines have this in there.
02:02:45.440 --> 02:02:49.730
So the majority of the fleet,
your fleet here in Texas,
02:02:49.730 --> 02:02:51.810
'cause I think the wind
turbines went back all the way
02:02:51.810 --> 02:02:52.983
to the late nineties,
02:02:54.040 --> 02:02:55.050
started being built,
02:02:55.050 --> 02:03:00.050
but it sounds like with respect
to the significant increase
02:03:00.750 --> 02:03:04.866
in wind generation that
occurred as a result of CREZ,
02:03:04.866 --> 02:03:07.824
there's more of this
solution became available
02:03:07.824 --> 02:03:09.010
around that time.
02:03:09.010 --> 02:03:11.370
And it's now part of the turbines
02:03:12.520 --> 02:03:16.299
that had been installed
during that period of significant
02:03:16.299 --> 02:03:18.920
wind generation increase.
02:03:18.920 --> 02:03:20.972
The, yes.
02:03:20.972 --> 02:03:23.240
I mean, we have a fairly
high penetration there.
02:03:23.240 --> 02:03:26.720
Like I said, there's still
maybe about a thousand or so,
02:03:26.720 --> 02:03:27.680
that are left.
02:03:27.680 --> 02:03:29.960
Maybe it's the older units.
02:03:29.960 --> 02:03:31.900
I'm not sure
exactly which ones,
02:03:31.900 --> 02:03:34.540
but that would be a high
probability that it is older.
02:03:34.540 --> 02:03:37.667
What is the life
cycle of a wind plant?
02:03:37.667 --> 02:03:38.500
20 Years.
02:03:38.500 --> 02:03:39.333
20 years.
02:03:39.333 --> 02:03:40.630
Design life.
02:03:40.630 --> 02:03:43.363
Even though our newer
ones are beyond that.
02:03:44.520 --> 02:03:46.870
And they can operate,
02:03:46.870 --> 02:03:48.510
you know, that's the design life,
02:03:48.510 --> 02:03:52.180
our experiences they can
operate beyond the 20 years.
02:03:52.180 --> 02:03:56.980
This winterized operating
mode should be relatively easy
02:03:56.980 --> 02:03:58.830
to retrofit or implement given
02:03:58.830 --> 02:04:00.911
that it's a software
solution-- (indistinct)
02:04:00.911 --> 02:04:01.744
Yes, sir.
02:04:01.744 --> 02:04:03.220
Okay, that's great.
02:04:03.220 --> 02:04:04.423
How much does it cost?
02:04:07.367 --> 02:04:08.200
(giggles)
02:04:08.200 --> 02:04:10.474
We don't necessarily
share price.
02:04:10.474 --> 02:04:11.970
(laughs)
02:04:11.970 --> 02:04:13.483
Well, okay, that's fair.
02:04:15.980 --> 02:04:17.305
Yeah.
02:04:17.305 --> 02:04:19.910
Yeah, maybe if I can
share maybe a little bit of info
02:04:19.910 --> 02:04:23.190
that may be helpful in this topic.
02:04:23.190 --> 02:04:26.230
So as we look at our fleet,
02:04:26.230 --> 02:04:28.270
we have winterized ice operation mode,
02:04:28.270 --> 02:04:30.790
about 40% of our
turbines located in Texas
02:04:30.790 --> 02:04:34.010
have the cold weather extreme packages.
02:04:34.010 --> 02:04:37.203
The new turbines we're
building are going to have both,
02:04:38.496 --> 02:04:43.240
and we're looking at
what are the options
02:04:43.240 --> 02:04:46.090
and possibilities of retrofitting
02:04:46.090 --> 02:04:49.460
for the cold weather packages
on the portion of our fleet
02:04:49.460 --> 02:04:51.950
that do not currently have it.
02:04:51.950 --> 02:04:55.830
We have to evaluate whether or not
02:04:57.120 --> 02:04:58.620
they may have elements of it,
02:04:58.620 --> 02:05:00.930
so we just we're in the
process of validating that.
02:05:00.930 --> 02:05:03.424
But one thing I do wanna raise is,
02:05:03.424 --> 02:05:05.750
you know, we're talking
about GE solutions.
02:05:05.750 --> 02:05:10.130
We do have other OEMs
that and we operate wind farms
02:05:10.130 --> 02:05:12.540
with other other technologies.
02:05:12.540 --> 02:05:16.030
Some of those technologies
don't have these options.
02:05:16.030 --> 02:05:19.510
Some of them you can, from
our discussions with other OEMs,
02:05:19.510 --> 02:05:23.040
you can purchase a cold
weather extreme package,
02:05:23.040 --> 02:05:25.330
but it limits the ability of
the machine to operate
02:05:25.330 --> 02:05:26.290
in the hot summers.
02:05:26.290 --> 02:05:29.170
And so it becomes
a bit of a trade-off on,
02:05:29.170 --> 02:05:31.260
do you wanna operate in the summers,
02:05:31.260 --> 02:05:33.580
or do you wanna operate in extreme code?
02:05:33.580 --> 02:05:36.290
You know, have the
ability to go to negative 14
02:05:37.250 --> 02:05:39.330
and limit your ability in the summers.
02:05:39.330 --> 02:05:42.063
And historically as an organization,
02:05:43.854 --> 02:05:45.654
we've always prioritized the summer.
02:05:47.128 --> 02:05:50.460
And in that vein,
how does it limit?
02:05:50.460 --> 02:05:51.700
What does it draw you down to,
02:05:51.700 --> 02:05:55.620
in terms of your maximum
heat performance?
02:05:55.620 --> 02:05:58.279
Yeah, do you remember
the temperatures?
02:05:58.279 --> 02:06:03.279
We have it but
it's just one moment.
02:06:03.427 --> 02:06:04.260
95.
02:06:04.260 --> 02:06:05.093
Yeah, 95.
02:06:05.093 --> 02:06:05.926
95 degrees.
02:06:05.926 --> 02:06:07.010
95.
02:06:07.010 --> 02:06:07.843
It's good to know.
02:06:07.843 --> 02:06:09.686
Again, that's not specific
to the GE technology.
02:06:09.686 --> 02:06:10.519
Yes, sir.
02:06:10.519 --> 02:06:11.352
Or the other
technologies we have.
02:06:11.352 --> 02:06:12.340
One of the other technologies.
02:06:12.340 --> 02:06:15.010
And essentially that's
because remember
02:06:15.010 --> 02:06:17.380
that graphic I showed up the turbine,
02:06:17.380 --> 02:06:19.820
they basically
insulate right in the cell.
02:06:19.820 --> 02:06:21.533
So it contains a lot more heat.
02:06:23.110 --> 02:06:26.440
When NextEra says the a
hundred percent of your new build
02:06:26.440 --> 02:06:28.993
turbines in Texas have both products,
02:06:32.533 --> 02:06:36.550
is that a consideration
taken on a geographic basis
02:06:36.550 --> 02:06:38.490
or is that a universal going forward?
02:06:38.490 --> 02:06:41.520
For us, it was a universal
decision after February.
02:06:41.520 --> 02:06:43.100
Okay, gotcha.
02:06:43.100 --> 02:06:45.100
Does that include
retrofits also?
02:06:45.100 --> 02:06:47.800
Well, we're in the
process of evaluating
02:06:47.800 --> 02:06:50.350
whether we can retrofit.
02:06:50.350 --> 02:06:52.640
So think of, let me give
you some percentages.
02:06:52.640 --> 02:06:53.980
40% of our fleet already--
02:06:53.980 --> 02:06:55.831
I really meant
repowering not retrofitting.
02:06:55.831 --> 02:06:56.800
Oh-oh! Repowering.
02:06:56.800 --> 02:06:57.633
Yes, sir.
02:06:57.633 --> 02:06:58.590
Okay.
02:06:58.590 --> 02:06:59.510
Yes, sir.
02:06:59.510 --> 02:07:00.750
And can I ask you
a quick question?
02:07:00.750 --> 02:07:02.710
What does rime ice?
02:07:02.710 --> 02:07:04.690
Is that leading edge ice?
02:07:04.690 --> 02:07:06.636
It's coming up in two slides.
02:07:06.636 --> 02:07:07.469
(laughs)
02:07:07.469 --> 02:07:08.302
Sorry to be head of ya.
02:07:08.302 --> 02:07:09.135
(laughs)
02:07:09.135 --> 02:07:12.713
Well, it's my fault for
using words I have to find.
02:07:14.780 --> 02:07:17.510
If I could wanna talk through
the cold weather extreme
02:07:17.510 --> 02:07:18.683
package real quick.
02:07:20.459 --> 02:07:21.710
It's really around, you know,
02:07:21.710 --> 02:07:23.410
earlier I talked about
standard operation
02:07:23.410 --> 02:07:25.633
going down to five degrees Fahrenheit.
02:07:26.470 --> 02:07:27.680
With cold weather extreme,
02:07:27.680 --> 02:07:30.700
we're able to extend that
down to negative 22 Fahrenheit.
02:07:30.700 --> 02:07:33.370
And you see in the curve there,
02:07:33.370 --> 02:07:34.900
it's a declining line.
02:07:34.900 --> 02:07:38.230
We start to derate the
turbine as we go down
02:07:38.230 --> 02:07:40.933
just from a loads mitigation standpoint.
02:07:42.340 --> 02:07:46.970
Now, that what Kirk
was referring to earlier,
02:07:46.970 --> 02:07:49.900
the key component
here is the type of steel
02:07:49.900 --> 02:07:51.320
that's used in the towers.
02:07:51.320 --> 02:07:55.010
So these towers are quite massive,
02:07:55.010 --> 02:07:58.780
and in order to sustain operation below
02:07:58.780 --> 02:08:00.490
five degrees Fahrenheit,
02:08:00.490 --> 02:08:04.240
you have to have a cold
weather capable steel.
02:08:04.240 --> 02:08:07.750
And the reason for that is
steel becomes quite brittle
02:08:07.750 --> 02:08:09.410
at cold temperatures,
02:08:09.410 --> 02:08:11.610
if you don't have the
right gauge of steel,
02:08:11.610 --> 02:08:13.470
you can have a minor imperfection
02:08:13.470 --> 02:08:16.520
become a very big problem pretty quickly
02:08:16.520 --> 02:08:18.100
at the loads that we see.
02:08:18.100 --> 02:08:20.690
So the evaluation process that the curve
02:08:20.690 --> 02:08:23.650
is referring to is the
technical evaluation
02:08:23.650 --> 02:08:25.920
we're looking at each of the towers
02:08:25.920 --> 02:08:29.057
that are installed in Texas and saying,
02:08:29.057 --> 02:08:31.317
"All right, what kind
of steel do they have?
02:08:31.317 --> 02:08:34.990
"Can they be extended
down into the negative?"
02:08:34.990 --> 02:08:37.550
So literally the
oscillation of that blade
02:08:37.550 --> 02:08:40.220
creates enough stress
on the superstructure
02:08:40.220 --> 02:08:44.210
of that facility to where it could fall.
02:08:44.210 --> 02:08:46.020
The way we
like to refer to it is,
02:08:46.020 --> 02:08:49.320
it's almost like a jet engine on takeoff
02:08:49.320 --> 02:08:51.530
is the amount of load thrust load
02:08:51.530 --> 02:08:52.363
that's at the top of that.
02:08:52.363 --> 02:08:53.555
On that level?
02:08:53.555 --> 02:08:54.388
Okay.
02:08:54.388 --> 02:08:58.940
Yeah, so and then you have
a 80 to 90 meter lever arm.
02:08:58.940 --> 02:09:00.263
So there's a ton of bending moment
02:09:00.263 --> 02:09:02.910
at the bottom of that tower.
02:09:02.910 --> 02:09:04.228
Sorry Mark, you wanna say something?
02:09:04.228 --> 02:09:05.061
No, perfect.
02:09:05.061 --> 02:09:05.894
All right.
02:09:05.894 --> 02:09:06.950
Cool.
02:09:06.950 --> 02:09:09.340
What does implementing that
cold weather extreme package
02:09:09.340 --> 02:09:10.790
look like in practice?
02:09:10.790 --> 02:09:11.623
Good question.
02:09:11.623 --> 02:09:14.230
So it's, number one
is doing that evaluation
02:09:14.230 --> 02:09:15.451
that I was referring to.
02:09:15.451 --> 02:09:16.370
Gotcha.
02:09:16.370 --> 02:09:17.700
And beyond the steel,
02:09:17.700 --> 02:09:19.060
once you get past that gate,
02:09:19.060 --> 02:09:21.250
it's around looking at
the other components
02:09:21.250 --> 02:09:22.793
within the wind turbine.
02:09:24.250 --> 02:09:26.900
We're looking at maintaining
temperature of our electronics
02:09:26.900 --> 02:09:28.640
that we were referring to earlier,
02:09:28.640 --> 02:09:30.750
as well as lubrication systems.
02:09:30.750 --> 02:09:33.410
You know, just like the
oil did you use in your car
02:09:33.410 --> 02:09:35.640
a summer weight
versus a winter weight oil,
02:09:35.640 --> 02:09:36.890
those sorts of things.
02:09:36.890 --> 02:09:41.890
So we do that evaluation and
depending on what is installed
02:09:42.070 --> 02:09:44.910
versus what is needed,
that sets up the scope
02:09:44.910 --> 02:09:46.000
of what's required.
02:09:46.000 --> 02:09:49.030
Okay, so it doesn't
sound like it's a physical,
02:09:49.030 --> 02:09:51.580
it's a components adjustment rather
02:09:51.580 --> 02:09:53.600
than a physical installation or?
02:09:53.600 --> 02:09:56.240
It can include and particularly
on the lubrication side
02:09:56.240 --> 02:09:57.480
for the gearbox, for example,
02:09:57.480 --> 02:09:59.310
you have to put additional
heating equipment
02:09:59.310 --> 02:10:00.800
into the oil systems.
02:10:00.800 --> 02:10:02.630
Okay, so the main
bearings that I showed you,
02:10:02.630 --> 02:10:04.280
you'll change all the lubrication out
02:10:04.280 --> 02:10:06.540
for a lubrication that
can actually withstand
02:10:06.540 --> 02:10:08.090
the lower ambient conditions.
02:10:08.090 --> 02:10:11.320
So there's physical
modifications as well as software.
02:10:11.320 --> 02:10:12.153
That's right.
02:10:12.153 --> 02:10:13.430
Okay, gotcha.
02:10:13.430 --> 02:10:14.263
Thank you.
02:10:16.590 --> 02:10:18.883
Any other questions
on the slide?
02:10:20.227 --> 02:10:21.190
(indistinct)
02:10:21.190 --> 02:10:26.190
All right, so
the wind is industry at large,
02:10:27.800 --> 02:10:29.530
and whenever we
start talking about icing,
02:10:29.530 --> 02:10:32.970
we use the International
Energy Associations classification
02:10:32.970 --> 02:10:35.840
of ice regions globally.
02:10:35.840 --> 02:10:39.530
And that is broken between class one
02:10:39.530 --> 02:10:41.100
all the way up to class five.
02:10:41.100 --> 02:10:44.387
And it's really comes down
to how many days per year
02:10:44.387 --> 02:10:47.611
are you expected to experience icing?
02:10:47.611 --> 02:10:52.611
And for most of US, Texas
included it's class one,
02:10:53.710 --> 02:10:57.363
which is zero to two days
of icing on average per year.
02:10:58.598 --> 02:11:02.000
And the areas that I
was referring to earlier,
02:11:02.000 --> 02:11:05.680
Sweden, Finland, where we
have most of our ice mitigation
02:11:05.680 --> 02:11:09.090
systems installed active
ice mitigation systems.
02:11:09.090 --> 02:11:11.830
You're in the class four or five icing
02:11:11.830 --> 02:11:13.570
where it's a hundred days plus.
02:11:13.570 --> 02:11:15.260
Yup, so we've
gotta ask on your map
02:11:15.260 --> 02:11:16.093
on the lower left there,
02:11:16.093 --> 02:11:19.294
it looks like your class one
includes not only all of Texas,
02:11:19.294 --> 02:11:22.263
but would go all the way up to Chicago.
02:11:23.220 --> 02:11:25.410
It gets pretty close.
02:11:25.410 --> 02:11:28.687
So I've gotta ask Chicago.
02:11:28.687 --> 02:11:30.060
And what is the definition
02:11:30.060 --> 02:11:32.240
if it's zero to two days of icing,
02:11:32.240 --> 02:11:34.180
the definition of meteorological icing
02:11:34.180 --> 02:11:37.450
is very different than the
on-ground definition of icing
02:11:37.450 --> 02:11:38.313
in Chicago.
02:11:39.470 --> 02:11:42.387
I'd have to refer back to the IEA's use
02:11:42.387 --> 02:11:45.610
and how they define that region.
02:11:45.610 --> 02:11:46.443
Okay.
02:11:46.443 --> 02:11:48.070
I mean, it definitely gets to New York
02:11:48.070 --> 02:11:49.320
all the way up to Providence.
02:11:49.320 --> 02:11:50.360
I mean, those are...
02:11:51.624 --> 02:11:52.457
Those are main.
02:11:52.457 --> 02:11:53.290
(indistinct)
02:11:53.290 --> 02:11:54.123
Yeah.
02:11:54.123 --> 02:11:54.956
Yeah.
02:11:56.530 --> 02:11:58.280
We'll follow up with the IEA on that.
02:11:58.280 --> 02:12:00.363
(laughs)
02:12:03.450 --> 02:12:04.283
All right.
02:12:05.240 --> 02:12:06.730
Great question.
02:12:06.730 --> 02:12:08.900
Any others on this one before we jump
02:12:08.900 --> 02:12:10.450
into types of ice?
02:12:10.450 --> 02:12:12.325
You talk about heated blades.
02:12:12.325 --> 02:12:14.810
I mean, you've talked a
lot about the components
02:12:14.810 --> 02:12:16.170
inside the turbine.
02:12:16.170 --> 02:12:19.770
Obviously, it's the blade
that gets the icing primarily.
02:12:19.770 --> 02:12:20.640
Yup.
02:12:20.640 --> 02:12:23.130
And I know that there
has been work on polymers
02:12:23.130 --> 02:12:26.380
and I know GE is now
in the blade business,
02:12:26.380 --> 02:12:28.350
but heated blades are not things
02:12:28.350 --> 02:12:30.010
that I've actually heard
about too too much.
02:12:30.010 --> 02:12:33.170
Are they used in Europe
or are they not working?
02:12:33.170 --> 02:12:34.003
Are they?
02:12:34.003 --> 02:12:38.670
What's kind of the state of
the state of heated wind blades
02:12:39.720 --> 02:12:41.220
and where are they used today?
02:12:42.525 --> 02:12:44.380
It's primarily in
those Nordic countries.
02:12:44.380 --> 02:12:46.630
So Sweden and Finland
02:12:46.630 --> 02:12:49.150
is where we have our
largest installed base.
02:12:49.150 --> 02:12:51.940
We have about 30 in Quebec
02:12:52.913 --> 02:12:55.270
and that's about as close as you can get
02:12:55.270 --> 02:12:59.100
to the United States
where we have installations.
02:12:59.100 --> 02:13:03.150
And there's two methods
of heating a blade.
02:13:03.150 --> 02:13:07.360
You can have hot air
blown through the blade,
02:13:07.360 --> 02:13:09.760
kind of like a heat exchanger,
02:13:09.760 --> 02:13:11.060
for lack of a better word.
02:13:11.060 --> 02:13:13.713
Where you're impinging
hot air on the inside surface.
02:13:13.713 --> 02:13:16.770
And the other is you can
have a heating elements
02:13:16.770 --> 02:13:19.690
embedded in the blade structure itself.
02:13:19.690 --> 02:13:22.990
So similar to the heat tracing
that was referred to earlier,
02:13:22.990 --> 02:13:24.430
it's a similar approach,
02:13:24.430 --> 02:13:27.133
except it's going down the
leading edge of the blade.
02:13:28.620 --> 02:13:31.260
There's pros and cons
associated with each,
02:13:31.260 --> 02:13:33.623
and certainly risks
associated with each.
02:13:35.000 --> 02:13:36.643
One of the things I'd like
to call some attention to,
02:13:36.643 --> 02:13:38.920
is just the power draw.
02:13:38.920 --> 02:13:42.500
These are fairly large
power hungry systems.
02:13:42.500 --> 02:13:45.193
So the pump air and heat the air.
02:13:46.140 --> 02:13:48.310
So whenever you flip those on,
02:13:48.310 --> 02:13:50.030
it's not like you can flip
on a whole wind farm
02:13:50.030 --> 02:13:50.863
at the same time,
02:13:50.863 --> 02:13:52.650
'cause all of a sudden
you'll be a net negative,
02:13:52.650 --> 02:13:55.123
you'll be a net draw or
consumer of electricity.
02:13:56.624 --> 02:14:00.160
Just one other data
point that I think is helpful.
02:14:00.160 --> 02:14:01.660
Obviously, we...
02:14:01.660 --> 02:14:03.380
Again, we've talked with other OEMs
02:14:03.380 --> 02:14:07.320
that have provided there in the process
02:14:07.320 --> 02:14:09.730
of looking at these
heated blade solutions
02:14:09.730 --> 02:14:12.810
and we've asked them
to take the February event
02:14:12.810 --> 02:14:16.640
and tell us whether or
not it would have mitigated
02:14:16.640 --> 02:14:17.473
the issue.
02:14:17.473 --> 02:14:20.823
And the feedback we've
received is probably not.
02:14:21.880 --> 02:14:23.730
They don't think it would have worked
02:14:23.730 --> 02:14:26.770
given the level of ice
that was witnessed here.
02:14:26.770 --> 02:14:31.092
So in our mind, it's still very early,
02:14:31.092 --> 02:14:34.220
and it's in the infancy
of the evaluation,
02:14:34.220 --> 02:14:36.940
and it's not a proven technology
02:14:38.220 --> 02:14:41.173
and it's similar to
ice phobic solutions.
02:14:42.050 --> 02:14:46.460
Like Mark said, we're out
piloting with what other groups,
02:14:46.460 --> 02:14:48.700
we're trying to find something,
02:14:48.700 --> 02:14:51.950
but there just isn't
that product there yet.
02:14:51.950 --> 02:14:56.760
So in the Nordic countries
is the heated blade solution
02:14:56.760 --> 02:14:58.957
of any variety of
solving the aerodynamic
02:14:58.957 --> 02:15:02.220
optimizing generation problem,
02:15:02.220 --> 02:15:04.580
or does it become a
structural physics problem
02:15:04.580 --> 02:15:06.610
with too much weight on that fulcrum
02:15:06.610 --> 02:15:07.443
at the end of that level?
02:15:07.443 --> 02:15:09.911
I'm gonna jump to the next
slide to answer that question.
02:15:09.911 --> 02:15:10.744
Fair enough.
02:15:10.744 --> 02:15:12.837
It's a great lead in.
02:15:12.837 --> 02:15:17.660
So this slide describes
the type of icing
02:15:17.660 --> 02:15:18.777
that you can experience.
02:15:18.777 --> 02:15:21.340
And there's really two main flavors.
02:15:21.340 --> 02:15:23.160
And of course there's a mix, right?
02:15:23.160 --> 02:15:26.800
It's a continuum along that spectrum.
02:15:26.800 --> 02:15:29.900
So just as you just get below freezing
02:15:29.900 --> 02:15:31.640
is where you start to see glaze ice.
02:15:31.640 --> 02:15:34.220
So think icicles, those sorts of things,
02:15:34.220 --> 02:15:37.100
where you have a fair
amount of liquid water
02:15:37.100 --> 02:15:39.303
that's able to move around,
02:15:40.650 --> 02:15:45.650
and on the blade you get
these very oddly shaped pieces.
02:15:46.030 --> 02:15:47.490
It always starts at the leading edge
02:15:47.490 --> 02:15:50.000
where the airflow is impinging,
02:15:50.000 --> 02:15:51.600
and you get kind of these spikes
02:15:51.600 --> 02:15:53.120
that come off the leading edge,
02:15:53.120 --> 02:15:55.680
and then eventually that
water runs down the back
02:15:55.680 --> 02:15:57.420
to form kind of feather structures
02:15:57.420 --> 02:15:59.393
that you see in that top right picture.
02:16:00.610 --> 02:16:03.270
And then with that
particular type of ice,
02:16:03.270 --> 02:16:05.550
you have very high surface adhesion.
02:16:05.550 --> 02:16:07.950
So it just sticks to the blade surface.
02:16:07.950 --> 02:16:10.410
And it's also much denser,
02:16:10.410 --> 02:16:13.160
so it's a heavier ice than you get
02:16:13.160 --> 02:16:15.060
as you go further down in temperature.
02:16:16.430 --> 02:16:19.950
That second flavor
rime ice is what you see
02:16:19.950 --> 02:16:23.630
with much colder
temperatures and low humidity.
02:16:23.630 --> 02:16:26.817
So it's more of a granual.
02:16:26.817 --> 02:16:30.030
You can kinda think of
powdered snow, right?
02:16:30.030 --> 02:16:31.760
It's very different going
through powder snow
02:16:31.760 --> 02:16:32.840
versus wet snow.
02:16:32.840 --> 02:16:35.240
And from like a snowboard
and skiing standpoint.
02:16:36.510 --> 02:16:40.270
The rime ice, it kinda flows
along the aerodynamic surface
02:16:40.270 --> 02:16:43.960
a little bit easier, much
less adhesion, much lighter.
02:16:43.960 --> 02:16:46.590
And that rime ice is what
we see most of the time
02:16:46.590 --> 02:16:47.910
in the Nordic regions.
02:16:47.910 --> 02:16:51.900
And so the solutions that
we have implemented there,
02:16:51.900 --> 02:16:55.990
are better at addressing
those, that type of ice.
02:16:55.990 --> 02:16:59.840
Whereas the glaze ice as
Kirk was referring to earlier.
02:16:59.840 --> 02:17:02.970
It's our systems that we
have are not as effective
02:17:02.970 --> 02:17:05.550
of removing that type of ice.
02:17:05.550 --> 02:17:07.040
And that's really the scenario
02:17:07.040 --> 02:17:09.433
that we saw here in Texas in February.
02:17:11.860 --> 02:17:12.720
And when you say that,
02:17:12.720 --> 02:17:15.780
when this is implemented
in the Nordic regions,
02:17:15.780 --> 02:17:18.500
mainly addressing rime ice
because of the energy pool
02:17:18.500 --> 02:17:22.210
to implement these
heated blade solutions
02:17:22.210 --> 02:17:24.380
it's done on a one-off basis by turbine,
02:17:24.380 --> 02:17:27.030
not wind farm wide?
02:17:27.030 --> 02:17:27.863
Correct.
02:17:27.863 --> 02:17:29.510
As needed on an
as needed basis.
02:17:29.510 --> 02:17:30.343
Right.
02:17:30.343 --> 02:17:33.320
They try to do a more of an anti-icing.
02:17:33.320 --> 02:17:38.280
So run it while the wind
farm is still generating power.
02:17:38.280 --> 02:17:39.220
Okay.
02:17:39.220 --> 02:17:40.053
So that--
02:17:40.053 --> 02:17:41.550
Every five minutes rotate.
02:17:41.550 --> 02:17:42.996
Yeah, you tried exactly.
02:17:42.996 --> 02:17:46.093
You just try to minimize your
net consumption at that point.
02:17:49.550 --> 02:17:51.380
So hopefully that
gave you the definition
02:17:51.380 --> 02:17:53.620
that you were asking for earlier
02:17:53.620 --> 02:17:55.663
and a little bit more context.
02:17:58.070 --> 02:18:00.243
Any other questions on the slide?
02:18:01.853 --> 02:18:03.061
I don't think so.
02:18:03.061 --> 02:18:03.894
Okay.
02:18:05.623 --> 02:18:08.710
All right, so last slide
just quick summary here
02:18:08.710 --> 02:18:12.350
that on points I've already
hit on just around the zero
02:18:12.350 --> 02:18:14.370
to two days wising per year.
02:18:14.370 --> 02:18:19.023
And the two systems
that we currently operate,
02:18:20.660 --> 02:18:23.850
and offer within the United
States around Wyoming
02:18:23.850 --> 02:18:25.920
and cold weather extreme.
02:18:25.920 --> 02:18:28.750
Those are, as I
mentioned, can be retrofitted
02:18:29.786 --> 02:18:32.040
and are available for new units today.
02:18:32.040 --> 02:18:34.560
And then I do mention just that,
02:18:34.560 --> 02:18:37.410
that technology roadmap
around heated blade solutions
02:18:37.410 --> 02:18:38.690
in the United States,
02:18:38.690 --> 02:18:42.943
we're continuing to work what
we have in the Nordic regions,
02:18:43.980 --> 02:18:46.880
but in terms of the
units that we're bringing
02:18:46.880 --> 02:18:49.180
into the United States is
currently not in the roadmap
02:18:49.180 --> 02:18:51.450
to bring those solutions here.
02:18:51.450 --> 02:18:52.730
Appreciate it.
02:18:52.730 --> 02:18:55.041
Any other questions for the panel?
02:18:55.041 --> 02:18:56.307
All right.
02:18:56.307 --> 02:18:57.140
All right, thank you.
02:18:57.140 --> 02:18:57.973
Nice presentation.
02:18:57.973 --> 02:18:58.806
Thank you all very much.
02:18:58.806 --> 02:19:03.180
Next we're hearing from a NERC
02:19:03.180 --> 02:19:06.510
on weatherization requirements.
02:19:06.510 --> 02:19:08.433
And while we make that transition,
02:19:10.900 --> 02:19:13.400
Dr. Gavin, would you
entertain us on any thoughts
02:19:13.400 --> 02:19:17.960
on the IEA's definition of all of Texas,
02:19:17.960 --> 02:19:20.170
all the way up to Chicago and New York
02:19:20.170 --> 02:19:22.820
only having zero to two
days of icing per year.
02:19:22.820 --> 02:19:23.903
Any thoughts on that?
02:19:25.041 --> 02:19:27.763
I assume that it
doesn't include snow fall.
02:19:29.000 --> 02:19:31.940
Snow only tend to fall off rather
02:19:31.940 --> 02:19:33.680
than if you really on a moving surface.
02:19:33.680 --> 02:19:36.430
So that's probably
what's involved with that.
02:19:36.430 --> 02:19:38.090
That's a distinct, so it would,
02:19:38.090 --> 02:19:41.703
their definition of
icing is not on roads or.
02:19:41.703 --> 02:19:42.760
Including rain.
02:19:42.760 --> 02:19:47.756
You need precipitation
plus on a non flat surface.
02:19:47.756 --> 02:19:50.467
Even flat surface,
but if it's (indistinct).
02:19:53.210 --> 02:19:55.270
Think of it (indistinct).
02:19:55.270 --> 02:20:00.223
So when you have
freezing rain on any surface
02:20:00.223 --> 02:20:03.290
that it accumulates and sticks.
02:20:03.290 --> 02:20:04.460
You can't sweep it off,
02:20:04.460 --> 02:20:06.300
the wind doesn't blow it off.
02:20:06.300 --> 02:20:08.510
Snow particularly on a blade
02:20:08.510 --> 02:20:12.410
which is going to be same
temperature as the air,
02:20:12.410 --> 02:20:16.024
it's not going to be the
same problem in the winter,
02:20:16.024 --> 02:20:17.691
and that's an issue.
02:20:18.644 --> 02:20:22.680
But when you have the icing occurrence,
02:20:22.680 --> 02:20:24.540
when you have a liquid water,
02:20:24.540 --> 02:20:26.740
that's actually below freezing,
02:20:26.740 --> 02:20:29.381
hitting a surface and
then freezing on contact.
02:20:29.381 --> 02:20:32.113
And that's the condition
that's (indistinct).
02:20:32.113 --> 02:20:32.946
Interesting.
02:20:32.946 --> 02:20:33.779
Thank you.
02:20:35.530 --> 02:20:36.363
Welcome.
02:20:37.430 --> 02:20:39.410
Good morning, Joseph Younger,
02:20:39.410 --> 02:20:41.360
I'm the Director of Enforcement,
02:20:41.360 --> 02:20:44.720
Reliability Standards and
Registration at Texas RE,
02:20:44.720 --> 02:20:47.080
which is the Regional
Reliability Entity.
02:20:47.080 --> 02:20:51.503
That's part of the NERC
Electric Reliability Organization.
02:20:54.318 --> 02:20:57.848
I'm mainly gonna focus
on the mandatory standards
02:20:57.848 --> 02:21:01.210
that are being developed
as part of the NERC
02:21:01.210 --> 02:21:04.130
cold-weather standards
project this year.
02:21:04.130 --> 02:21:08.080
But I wanted to start by
briefly giving a little background
02:21:08.080 --> 02:21:11.210
on the activities that proceeded
the current cold weather
02:21:11.210 --> 02:21:13.142
standard project.
02:21:13.142 --> 02:21:16.300
NERC and Texas RE in particular,
02:21:16.300 --> 02:21:19.690
their engagement with
the weatherization issues
02:21:19.690 --> 02:21:21.590
really began in 2011,
02:21:21.590 --> 02:21:23.853
in connection with
the 2011 winter event.
02:21:25.110 --> 02:21:29.160
Texas RE supported FERC
and NERC in the joint inquiry
02:21:29.160 --> 02:21:33.610
around that winter event
to review and develop
02:21:33.610 --> 02:21:37.330
recommendations around weatherization
02:21:37.330 --> 02:21:39.376
in cold weather operations planning.
02:21:39.376 --> 02:21:42.920
And that report, which came out in 2012,
02:21:42.920 --> 02:21:47.256
provided winter weatherization
recommendations
02:21:47.256 --> 02:21:49.670
for generator owners and operators,
02:21:49.670 --> 02:21:53.890
plant design, maintenance
and inspection implementation
02:21:53.890 --> 02:21:56.640
of specific freeze protection measures.
02:21:56.640 --> 02:21:58.270
And out of that report,
02:21:58.270 --> 02:22:02.166
NERC in connection
with industry developed
02:22:02.166 --> 02:22:05.520
a number of voluntary
reliability guidelines
02:22:05.520 --> 02:22:09.180
and lessons learned on
generator, winter preparations.
02:22:09.180 --> 02:22:13.580
And those guidelines,
which have been now revised
02:22:14.500 --> 02:22:16.700
three times, I believe,
02:22:16.700 --> 02:22:20.460
they provide guidance
on really how to design
02:22:20.460 --> 02:22:24.080
and implement an effective cold weather
02:22:24.080 --> 02:22:25.780
preparedness program.
02:22:25.780 --> 02:22:28.600
And so there's a lot of
elements that go into that.
02:22:28.600 --> 02:22:31.040
I think Mr. Gates touched
on some of those earlier,
02:22:31.040 --> 02:22:35.960
but it runs a range
from roles for corporate
02:22:35.960 --> 02:22:40.130
and plant management and
preparation for winter events.
02:22:40.130 --> 02:22:43.490
The typical problem areas
you might see with equipment.
02:22:43.490 --> 02:22:47.890
And so if you can, so you
can identify and prioritize
02:22:47.890 --> 02:22:51.450
your maintenance and
installation activities,
02:22:51.450 --> 02:22:53.540
recommendations around testing,
02:22:53.540 --> 02:22:55.020
low-frequency activities
02:22:55.020 --> 02:22:58.070
like starting emergency generators
02:22:58.070 --> 02:22:59.660
prior to the onset of cold weather,
02:22:59.660 --> 02:23:01.250
those types of activities.
02:23:01.250 --> 02:23:04.260
As well as training staffing,
communication protocols.
02:23:04.260 --> 02:23:07.920
So it's a framework for designing
02:23:07.920 --> 02:23:09.963
your cold weather preparations.
02:23:10.940 --> 02:23:14.020
And so Texas RE's ease
activities have really focused
02:23:14.020 --> 02:23:16.350
on implementing and sharing information
02:23:16.350 --> 02:23:18.880
around those guidelines.
02:23:18.880 --> 02:23:21.350
And we've done that
primarily in two ways.
02:23:21.350 --> 02:23:24.750
The first is we conduct
an annual generator
02:23:24.750 --> 02:23:25.930
preparedness workshop.
02:23:25.930 --> 02:23:28.670
We've done it every year since 2013.
02:23:28.670 --> 02:23:30.630
Typically, at the end of September
02:23:30.630 --> 02:23:33.360
which aligns with a lot of the timelines
02:23:33.360 --> 02:23:36.483
for the generators they're
preparing for this season,
02:23:38.020 --> 02:23:39.357
putting their preparations in place
02:23:39.357 --> 02:23:41.670
and their training
activities in that September
02:23:41.670 --> 02:23:43.750
and October timeframe.
02:23:43.750 --> 02:23:47.500
We also perform focus
site visits each year.
02:23:47.500 --> 02:23:50.440
We've done this with ERCOT staff
02:23:50.440 --> 02:23:51.820
and over the last three years,
02:23:51.820 --> 02:23:54.660
we've done 134 of these site visits
02:23:54.660 --> 02:23:58.184
to look at the implementation of,
02:23:58.184 --> 02:24:01.800
again, the controls
for this specific site
02:24:01.800 --> 02:24:03.370
share best practices.
02:24:03.370 --> 02:24:05.390
We'll get also the procedural documents,
02:24:05.390 --> 02:24:06.910
where training has occurred
02:24:06.910 --> 02:24:11.453
and do some targeted outreach
with those engagements.
02:24:13.470 --> 02:24:15.200
So that's the lead,
02:24:15.200 --> 02:24:17.000
and I'm not sure why
this slide looks like this,
02:24:17.000 --> 02:24:22.000
but the mandatory cold weather
preparedness requirements,
02:24:23.050 --> 02:24:25.990
that project really began in 2019
02:24:26.850 --> 02:24:30.100
in response to a second
cold weather event
02:24:30.100 --> 02:24:33.520
that primarily impacted the
south central United States
02:24:33.520 --> 02:24:35.620
in January 17th, 2018.
02:24:35.620 --> 02:24:39.340
And the project implements
the recommendations
02:24:39.340 --> 02:24:42.600
that came out of the
NERC and FERC report
02:24:42.600 --> 02:24:44.130
analyzing that event.
02:24:44.130 --> 02:24:46.890
And there it's really
focused on two areas
02:24:46.890 --> 02:24:49.670
and addresses several of the mandatory
02:24:49.670 --> 02:24:51.790
NERC reliability standards.
02:24:51.790 --> 02:24:54.570
The first area is a requirement
for generator owners
02:24:54.570 --> 02:24:59.000
to develop and implement cold
weather preparedness plans.
02:24:59.000 --> 02:25:01.760
Now, I'll touch on those
elements in just a second.
02:25:01.760 --> 02:25:06.273
The other element provides
provisions for notification
02:25:06.273 --> 02:25:10.830
through what are known as
documented data specifications.
02:25:10.830 --> 02:25:13.350
So in this region, it would be ERCOT
02:25:13.350 --> 02:25:17.220
acting in NERC parlance
is the reliability coordinator
02:25:17.220 --> 02:25:19.370
and balancing authority,
02:25:19.370 --> 02:25:22.290
they issue data specifications
to generator owner
02:25:22.290 --> 02:25:25.600
and operators specific
data that ERCOT needs
02:25:25.600 --> 02:25:27.860
to perform its real-time assessment
02:25:27.860 --> 02:25:29.623
and monitoring activities.
02:25:30.520 --> 02:25:33.930
And so this has provisions
to require generator owners
02:25:33.930 --> 02:25:36.610
require that specification
and provide data
02:25:36.610 --> 02:25:41.270
around operating
limitations, cold weather,
02:25:41.270 --> 02:25:44.330
limitations, minimum
historic operating temperature,
02:25:44.330 --> 02:25:47.290
that type of information so that ERCOT
02:25:47.290 --> 02:25:48.793
can have situational awareness
02:25:48.793 --> 02:25:50.723
entering a cold weather event.
02:25:53.300 --> 02:25:54.580
What does that really mean?
02:25:54.580 --> 02:25:56.830
I mean, does that mean that that ERCOT
02:25:56.830 --> 02:25:59.960
knows exactly which turbines have,
02:25:59.960 --> 02:26:04.130
or should they know which
turbines, wind turbines,
02:26:04.130 --> 02:26:06.150
for example, have
cold-weather packages on them,
02:26:06.150 --> 02:26:10.344
or which gas-fired plants
have weatherization packages
02:26:10.344 --> 02:26:11.190
on them?
02:26:11.190 --> 02:26:15.580
I mean, it seems like if
they're running their models
02:26:15.580 --> 02:26:20.580
to determine day ahead
or hourly forecasts,
02:26:21.760 --> 02:26:25.170
they need to know
specifics of each plan.
02:26:25.170 --> 02:26:26.520
Do they know that?
02:26:26.520 --> 02:26:30.980
So the standard itself
doesn't specify the granularity
02:26:30.980 --> 02:26:32.320
of the data specification.
02:26:32.320 --> 02:26:34.400
That's something that
ERCOT can determine,
02:26:34.400 --> 02:26:37.210
but what it does specify is
that the generator owners
02:26:37.210 --> 02:26:38.570
have to determine,
02:26:38.570 --> 02:26:42.940
and then ERCOT will
request on the periodicity
02:26:42.940 --> 02:26:46.370
and with the deadlines
for providing an information
02:26:46.370 --> 02:26:48.640
that they deem appropriate.
02:26:48.640 --> 02:26:50.993
Capability and availability of the unit.
02:26:51.946 --> 02:26:56.860
We have fuel supply
limitations, switching capability,
02:26:56.860 --> 02:26:58.070
environmental constraints.
02:26:58.070 --> 02:26:59.440
So those broad categories.
02:26:59.440 --> 02:27:01.820
So the standard itself doesn't touch on,
02:27:01.820 --> 02:27:03.980
get down to that level of granularity
02:27:03.980 --> 02:27:07.080
where that can be part of the
data specification of ERCOT
02:27:07.080 --> 02:27:09.760
deems that necessary for its monitoring
02:27:09.760 --> 02:27:11.183
and assessment activities.
02:27:17.610 --> 02:27:20.180
This next slide kind of
looks at the cold weather
02:27:20.180 --> 02:27:22.810
preparedness plan
requirements themselves,
02:27:22.810 --> 02:27:25.300
and lays out what the framework
02:27:25.300 --> 02:27:29.940
that set forth in the plan requirements
02:27:29.940 --> 02:27:32.150
for generators group sets out.
02:27:32.150 --> 02:27:35.280
And so it requires
generators to implement
02:27:35.280 --> 02:27:39.620
freeze protection measures
based on geographic location
02:27:39.620 --> 02:27:41.540
and plant configuration.
02:27:41.540 --> 02:27:46.270
It does not specify a specific
freeze protection measures.
02:27:46.270 --> 02:27:49.800
So it requires you to
implement those measures
02:27:49.800 --> 02:27:52.830
that you deem appropriate
for your specific site
02:27:52.830 --> 02:27:57.280
and location, but it
doesn't set a baseline
02:27:57.280 --> 02:27:59.490
or mandate any specific measures.
02:27:59.490 --> 02:28:02.760
And that in part reflects the standard.
02:28:02.760 --> 02:28:04.650
It's a continent wide standard.
02:28:04.650 --> 02:28:08.720
So it's picking up units
that would be enclosed
02:28:08.720 --> 02:28:10.100
in Minnesota as well as units
02:28:10.100 --> 02:28:12.250
that would be here in Texas or Florida.
02:28:12.250 --> 02:28:14.110
And so it's a trying to address that,
02:28:14.110 --> 02:28:15.820
but it does require you to have a plan
02:28:15.820 --> 02:28:18.713
that implements appropriate
freeze protection measures.
02:28:19.680 --> 02:28:22.010
It also requires you to
perform annual maintenance
02:28:22.010 --> 02:28:24.483
and inspection activities
on those measures.
02:28:25.400 --> 02:28:27.640
Again, it doesn't
specify what those are,
02:28:27.640 --> 02:28:30.273
but it requires your plan
to contain those elements.
02:28:31.120 --> 02:28:33.920
It's also requires you to develop data
02:28:33.920 --> 02:28:35.410
on operating limitations,
02:28:35.410 --> 02:28:37.780
which is what we were just
speaking about in connection
02:28:37.780 --> 02:28:42.780
with the day that you would
provide in this region, ERCOT,
02:28:42.990 --> 02:28:46.180
as well as provide unit
specific training to personnel.
02:28:46.180 --> 02:28:47.480
So and that's really the framework
02:28:47.480 --> 02:28:48.880
that set out in those plans.
02:28:50.100 --> 02:28:53.140
And how much of the supply
chain do you have to go?
02:28:53.140 --> 02:28:55.510
I mean, generator operator obviously,
02:28:55.510 --> 02:28:57.380
or generator owner is responsible
02:28:57.380 --> 02:28:59.440
for just what's inside their fence.
02:28:59.440 --> 02:29:01.660
Do they have to go any further
02:29:01.660 --> 02:29:03.050
to talk about their fuel supply
02:29:03.050 --> 02:29:06.040
or their water supplier
or anything like that?
02:29:06.040 --> 02:29:07.910
It's not specified
in the standard.
02:29:07.910 --> 02:29:12.520
So the standard doesn't
speak to reaching out beyond
02:29:12.520 --> 02:29:14.970
in terms of the mandatory
requirements in the plan.
02:29:14.970 --> 02:29:16.670
There's nothing that's required in that.
02:29:16.670 --> 02:29:19.670
Now, if you turn to
the reliability guidelines
02:29:19.670 --> 02:29:22.600
or those other frameworks
that does have suggestions
02:29:22.600 --> 02:29:24.900
on reaching beyond the fence line
02:29:24.900 --> 02:29:27.120
and looking at those considerations,
02:29:27.120 --> 02:29:28.160
and you do have to provide,
02:29:28.160 --> 02:29:30.680
again that as part of
the data specification,
02:29:30.680 --> 02:29:33.030
you're gonna have to tell ERCOT,
02:29:33.030 --> 02:29:34.740
what are your fuel supply limitations?
02:29:34.740 --> 02:29:35.610
Do you have any?
02:29:35.610 --> 02:29:36.760
What are your capabilities?
02:29:36.760 --> 02:29:38.610
Do you have that switching capability?
02:29:38.610 --> 02:29:39.443
Those elements.
02:29:39.443 --> 02:29:42.010
But in terms of the
maintenance and inspection
02:29:42.010 --> 02:29:43.260
or those activities,
02:29:43.260 --> 02:29:46.003
it's not a required element of the plan.
02:29:46.003 --> 02:29:48.040
So if ERCOT has
that information,
02:29:48.040 --> 02:29:51.850
do we know if it is electronic?
02:29:51.850 --> 02:29:53.263
Is it in their algorithms?
02:29:54.330 --> 02:29:56.270
Or is it just a piece of paper
02:29:56.270 --> 02:29:57.880
that says these are, you know,
02:29:57.880 --> 02:29:59.360
I've written NERC compliance plans
02:29:59.360 --> 02:30:02.130
and these are my limitations.
02:30:02.130 --> 02:30:07.130
And I mean, can you
shed any light on that?
02:30:07.930 --> 02:30:11.080
Well, and I think ERCOT
might be in a better place
02:30:11.080 --> 02:30:12.670
to speak to that specifically.
02:30:12.670 --> 02:30:17.503
But so ERCOT maintains a
fairly broad data specification.
02:30:18.480 --> 02:30:23.130
So they have a number
of things that they require
02:30:23.130 --> 02:30:26.940
and they deem that they need to perform
02:30:26.940 --> 02:30:29.930
their real-time assessment
monitoring activities.
02:30:29.930 --> 02:30:31.918
Low and behold here's ERCOT.
02:30:31.918 --> 02:30:33.190
(laughs)
02:30:33.190 --> 02:30:35.040
And they can speak to
it much better than I can.
02:30:35.040 --> 02:30:36.970
So I'll be quiet and let them talk.
02:30:36.970 --> 02:30:37.870
Okay.
02:30:37.870 --> 02:30:38.703
(laughs)
02:30:38.703 --> 02:30:40.550
Thanks for coming up Woody.
02:30:40.550 --> 02:30:43.520
So we rely mostly on
the current operating plan
02:30:43.520 --> 02:30:48.520
that the generators supply
to us going out for seven days.
02:30:48.520 --> 02:30:50.450
So that's where most
of that operating data
02:30:50.450 --> 02:30:51.760
is gonna come from.
02:30:51.760 --> 02:30:53.945
We also collect the unit data
02:30:53.945 --> 02:30:56.950
that will have all the
specifications and things like that.
02:30:56.950 --> 02:30:58.640
Now, when this passed,
02:30:58.640 --> 02:31:00.760
we'll have to look at that and determine
02:31:00.760 --> 02:31:04.053
what is needed further than
what we currently collect.
02:31:04.900 --> 02:31:08.027
So there'll be some
additional data requests made
02:31:08.027 --> 02:31:09.630
once these standards are official.
02:31:09.630 --> 02:31:12.400
But all of the data points
that Jimmy's talking about,
02:31:12.400 --> 02:31:17.400
how much currently and for
the recent past has ERCOT
02:31:18.950 --> 02:31:21.960
had on specific generators?
02:31:21.960 --> 02:31:24.890
So in particular, which
ones are you asking about?
02:31:24.890 --> 02:31:27.300
Well, I mean, I think
it's just the general...
02:31:27.300 --> 02:31:30.180
I mean, I know you have
general operating characteristics
02:31:30.180 --> 02:31:35.180
of each unit in each plant
that have to be accepted
02:31:35.480 --> 02:31:37.623
by you all to put into your modeling,
02:31:38.580 --> 02:31:41.483
your day ahead models
or your real-time models.
02:31:42.950 --> 02:31:45.100
Do you have any of these...
02:31:46.150 --> 02:31:50.677
Are you able to look into
maybe deviations from those,
02:31:52.920 --> 02:31:56.510
or limitations of those that are...
02:31:56.510 --> 02:32:00.760
So 99 point something
percent of the year
02:32:00.760 --> 02:32:02.690
you're running just fine,
02:32:02.690 --> 02:32:04.880
but that's not the part of
the time we're worried about,
02:32:04.880 --> 02:32:07.420
we're worried about the 0.1 or the 0.2%
02:32:07.420 --> 02:32:10.260
when we have extreme
weather, either hot or cold.
02:32:10.260 --> 02:32:15.093
Do you somehow integrate
the limitations of each unit
02:32:17.610 --> 02:32:21.390
into your algorithms in that regard?
02:32:21.390 --> 02:32:23.620
In other words, if we're
gonna get 110 degrees
02:32:23.620 --> 02:32:24.540
across the state,
02:32:24.540 --> 02:32:27.100
do we know how many wind turbines
02:32:27.100 --> 02:32:31.040
are not gonna run above
104 degrees or 105 degrees?
02:32:31.040 --> 02:32:32.580
We currently do not.
02:32:32.580 --> 02:32:33.549
Okay.
02:32:33.549 --> 02:32:35.960
But that's not included in
the current operating plan
02:32:35.960 --> 02:32:38.893
that's provided to ERCOT
by generating assets.
02:32:39.900 --> 02:32:41.510
Okay, so there's two
separate things there.
02:32:41.510 --> 02:32:45.300
So we do not have it built
in to any of our systems.
02:32:45.300 --> 02:32:48.360
Now, if a generator knows
that they're gonna be outside
02:32:48.360 --> 02:32:50.470
their operating range
and they put it in their cop,
02:32:50.470 --> 02:32:53.130
then that would go into
our operating system.
02:32:53.130 --> 02:32:57.953
But it's not hardwired into
the underlying operating
02:32:57.953 --> 02:33:00.846
algorithms so to speak of our system
02:33:00.846 --> 02:33:03.402
to know that 110 degree day,
02:33:03.402 --> 02:33:05.780
we have lost X number of megawatts.
02:33:05.780 --> 02:33:08.478
That is not hardwired into it.
02:33:08.478 --> 02:33:11.120
Currently, it only comes
through the top data.
02:33:11.120 --> 02:33:12.100
So--
02:33:12.100 --> 02:33:14.260
The current
operating plan, the cop.
02:33:14.260 --> 02:33:15.943
Which is around what timeline?
02:33:16.960 --> 02:33:19.520
The cop is for seven days out.
02:33:19.520 --> 02:33:22.280
But in practice and
my understanding
02:33:22.280 --> 02:33:24.340
is this only about 24 hours out?
02:33:24.340 --> 02:33:26.990
In practice it's more
like a 24 hour notice.
02:33:26.990 --> 02:33:27.823
Okay.
02:33:27.823 --> 02:33:30.120
So just as a practical
question, Woody,
02:33:30.120 --> 02:33:31.900
so take URI.
02:33:31.900 --> 02:33:34.580
We've got 1900 some-odd wind turbines
02:33:34.580 --> 02:33:38.360
that are rated for what five degrees?
02:33:38.360 --> 02:33:40.993
No, five to minus 22 degrees,
02:33:43.170 --> 02:33:44.870
depending on that cop,
02:33:44.870 --> 02:33:47.460
you do not know where they are,
02:33:47.460 --> 02:33:50.020
and how they'll perform
at the early stages
02:33:50.020 --> 02:33:52.500
of a big winter event moving through.
02:33:52.500 --> 02:33:55.890
So from a performance evaluation model,
02:33:55.890 --> 02:33:57.620
do you have that information?
02:33:57.620 --> 02:34:01.990
So there is a third
piece of information
02:34:01.990 --> 02:34:04.810
that comes in when we
start talking about wind units
02:34:04.810 --> 02:34:07.663
and that's our forecasting,
our wind forecasting.
02:34:08.560 --> 02:34:12.480
We do forecast icing conditions.
02:34:12.480 --> 02:34:16.520
And so we do have
another way of anticipating
02:34:16.520 --> 02:34:19.913
wind generation that won't
be there because of icing.
02:34:21.360 --> 02:34:22.940
ERCOT doesn't
have any visibility
02:34:22.940 --> 02:34:27.090
on which of the 7,000 wind generators
02:34:27.090 --> 02:34:29.310
have the cold weather extreme package.
02:34:29.310 --> 02:34:30.143
That's right.
02:34:30.143 --> 02:34:32.390
Unless I think
(indistinct) the bottom,
02:34:32.390 --> 02:34:33.223
correct me if I'm wrong,
02:34:33.223 --> 02:34:34.800
I'm to try to summarize this.
02:34:34.800 --> 02:34:37.040
The bottom line is ERCOT operations
02:34:37.040 --> 02:34:41.390
does not have unit specific data related
02:34:41.390 --> 02:34:43.840
to potential performance variants
02:34:43.840 --> 02:34:47.040
related to extreme weather
unless it is volunteered
02:34:47.040 --> 02:34:48.700
by that generator at which point
02:34:48.700 --> 02:34:51.960
it can be integrated
into the ERCOT models.
02:34:51.960 --> 02:34:52.870
That's correct.
02:34:52.870 --> 02:34:54.134
Well put.
02:34:54.134 --> 02:34:54.967
Okay.
02:34:54.967 --> 02:34:56.760
What about those
December 1st attestations
02:34:57.600 --> 02:34:58.890
for preparedness?
02:34:58.890 --> 02:35:02.210
Is there any additional
data you can lean there?
02:35:02.210 --> 02:35:05.760
There is some
additional data in those,
02:35:05.760 --> 02:35:10.760
but that's not hardwired
into any of our systems.
02:35:11.590 --> 02:35:13.500
That would be something
that as we go out
02:35:13.500 --> 02:35:15.930
and do spot inspections
and things like that,
02:35:15.930 --> 02:35:17.100
we'll discuss those things,
02:35:17.100 --> 02:35:18.630
we'll talk about those things,
02:35:18.630 --> 02:35:22.120
but then it's not hardwired so to speak
02:35:22.120 --> 02:35:23.960
into any of our systems.
02:35:23.960 --> 02:35:25.280
All right.
02:35:25.280 --> 02:35:26.574
Thanks Wood.
02:35:26.574 --> 02:35:27.407
Thank you.
02:35:27.407 --> 02:35:28.240
Good.
02:35:28.240 --> 02:35:29.323
Thank you.
02:35:29.323 --> 02:35:30.540
Appreciate you stepping up.
02:35:30.540 --> 02:35:33.240
Well, and that's
a good transition
02:35:33.240 --> 02:35:35.490
because this is standard
is under development.
02:35:35.490 --> 02:35:39.170
So the cold weather standards have moved
02:35:39.170 --> 02:35:40.890
through the NERC project,
02:35:40.890 --> 02:35:43.210
and that standards development process.
02:35:43.210 --> 02:35:46.527
And that process is a
stakeholder driven process.
02:35:46.527 --> 02:35:51.527
So Texas RE in that process
is an essence of stakeholder.
02:35:51.700 --> 02:35:53.447
And so we provide
comments on the standards,
02:35:53.447 --> 02:35:55.590
but we don't develop
the standards ourselves.
02:35:55.590 --> 02:35:57.697
It's an industry driven process,
02:35:57.697 --> 02:36:00.920
and that's moved
through the NERC process
02:36:00.920 --> 02:36:04.740
and the NERC board approve that in June.
02:36:04.740 --> 02:36:07.907
It's with spile with FERC on June 17th.
02:36:07.907 --> 02:36:11.743
And so now it's under
consideration at FERC.
02:36:11.743 --> 02:36:15.030
FERC as part of that
consideration process,
02:36:15.030 --> 02:36:17.630
they can adopt or reject the standard.
02:36:17.630 --> 02:36:19.230
They can also accept it,
02:36:19.230 --> 02:36:24.142
but issue directives to either
implement more elements
02:36:24.142 --> 02:36:26.630
or look at different aspects.
02:36:26.630 --> 02:36:30.093
So that's within FERC's
discretion in that process.
02:36:32.130 --> 02:36:36.700
Once FERC acts and assuming
they don't make changes
02:36:36.700 --> 02:36:37.540
to this piece of it,
02:36:37.540 --> 02:36:41.320
the current standard
contemplates becoming effective
02:36:41.320 --> 02:36:44.350
18 months from when FERC takes action.
02:36:44.350 --> 02:36:46.550
So there's an
implementation time period.
02:36:46.550 --> 02:36:50.810
So it won't immediately take
effect following FERC's action.
02:36:50.810 --> 02:36:52.090
Do you think...
So just...
02:36:52.090 --> 02:36:53.492
Go on Lori.
02:36:53.492 --> 02:36:57.140
Oh, just to be clear that
the cold weather standards
02:36:57.140 --> 02:36:59.850
that are currently
pending approval at FERC
02:36:59.850 --> 02:37:04.170
are based on the 2018
South Central weather event.
02:37:04.170 --> 02:37:06.695
The recommendation,
so that's the origin of that.
02:37:06.695 --> 02:37:08.410
So they're not
contemplating for instance
02:37:08.410 --> 02:37:12.650
the current joint
inquiry that's ongoing,
02:37:12.650 --> 02:37:15.330
that may be folded into
the development process
02:37:15.330 --> 02:37:19.200
'cause STEC is obviously
those recommendations
02:37:19.200 --> 02:37:20.400
are coming out in the...
02:37:20.400 --> 02:37:22.330
The preliminary recommendations
are coming out in September,
02:37:22.330 --> 02:37:23.200
I believe.
02:37:23.200 --> 02:37:25.970
And then the final report
sometime in November.
02:37:25.970 --> 02:37:28.820
So FERC could incorporate
those recommendations
02:37:28.820 --> 02:37:31.970
if they wished through a directive,
02:37:31.970 --> 02:37:35.280
or if that doesn't occur NERC,
02:37:35.280 --> 02:37:37.950
in fact, I'll just move
ahead a couple of slides.
02:37:37.950 --> 02:37:42.950
NERC is looking at
likely looking at the results
02:37:43.050 --> 02:37:45.010
of that joint inquiry
and considering whether
02:37:45.010 --> 02:37:48.200
to add additional granularity as well,
02:37:48.200 --> 02:37:51.770
or additional recommendations
from that into the framework
02:37:51.770 --> 02:37:54.770
that the current standard sets out.
02:37:54.770 --> 02:37:59.200
So it's a... While
this is a first draft of it,
02:37:59.200 --> 02:38:00.060
there may be additional.
02:38:00.060 --> 02:38:03.390
In fact, I think there likely
will be additional work
02:38:03.390 --> 02:38:05.373
in this area in some form or fashion.
02:38:06.330 --> 02:38:10.270
So just kind of
practical purposes,
02:38:10.270 --> 02:38:13.270
once FERC approves
the cold weather standards,
02:38:13.270 --> 02:38:18.270
whether they include February
2021 recommendations or not,
02:38:19.850 --> 02:38:24.750
the TRE would then ensure compliance
02:38:25.810 --> 02:38:27.350
under the cold weather standards.
02:38:27.350 --> 02:38:30.890
And that compliance is also
supported by enforcement.
02:38:30.890 --> 02:38:31.990
That's correct, yes.
02:38:34.053 --> 02:38:35.480
Once FERC has approved the standard
02:38:35.480 --> 02:38:37.410
and the implementation period runs.
02:38:37.410 --> 02:38:40.310
So whether it's 18
months or a shorter period,
02:38:40.310 --> 02:38:42.113
if FERC would prefer that,
02:38:42.113 --> 02:38:46.149
then we would begin to
one audit the standard.
02:38:46.149 --> 02:38:47.750
So we can conduct audits,
02:38:47.750 --> 02:38:50.900
entities can also self-report
under the standard,
02:38:50.900 --> 02:38:54.880
and we would have now
a mandatory standard
02:38:54.880 --> 02:38:58.030
to exercise our
enforcement authority on.
02:38:58.030 --> 02:39:01.730
And so it would likely
be part of our risk-based
02:39:01.730 --> 02:39:03.249
auditing enforcement activities.
02:39:03.249 --> 02:39:04.750
It would be just like
all the other standards.
02:39:04.750 --> 02:39:06.282
Yes.
02:39:06.282 --> 02:39:09.520
Do you think any of these
once approved by FERC
02:39:09.520 --> 02:39:12.040
this new standard would
have really made a difference
02:39:12.040 --> 02:39:15.123
in Texas during our event?
02:39:16.410 --> 02:39:17.500
Well, it's hard to say.
02:39:17.500 --> 02:39:20.650
I think a lot of this framework,
02:39:20.650 --> 02:39:22.753
and again, this is a
continent wide standard, right?
02:39:22.753 --> 02:39:23.586
Right.
02:39:23.586 --> 02:39:27.460
A lot of this framework is
similar to what we ERCOT
02:39:27.460 --> 02:39:30.060
had in place through
the protocol requirements,
02:39:30.060 --> 02:39:32.750
around having a weatherization plan,
02:39:32.750 --> 02:39:36.120
around attesting to the
implementation of that plan.
02:39:36.120 --> 02:39:38.480
And this is a framework to,
02:39:38.480 --> 02:39:40.720
again, have a plan and
have these elements
02:39:40.720 --> 02:39:41.878
that's (indistinct).
02:39:41.878 --> 02:39:44.780
Have the plan, follow
the plan, train to the plan,
02:39:44.780 --> 02:39:46.050
submit the plan, whatever.
02:39:46.050 --> 02:39:47.720
Conduct maintenance
on the plan, you know,
02:39:47.720 --> 02:39:49.660
like have those have that framework too.
02:39:49.660 --> 02:39:54.660
So it is similar to what was in
place in the ERCOT protocols
02:39:56.250 --> 02:39:57.381
prior to the event.
02:39:57.381 --> 02:39:58.214
Okay.
02:39:59.138 --> 02:40:00.700
And I was just
gonna flag a couple of,
02:40:00.700 --> 02:40:04.378
we are doing some
outreach activities around
02:40:04.378 --> 02:40:07.650
as these standards are rolling out.
02:40:07.650 --> 02:40:11.350
So we did an outreach on July 8th.
02:40:11.350 --> 02:40:16.350
We have a targeted outreach
with scheduled for August 23rd
02:40:16.561 --> 02:40:20.420
to discuss the standard requirements
02:40:20.420 --> 02:40:22.085
and their implementation efforts.
02:40:22.085 --> 02:40:25.660
And our regular annual
winterization workshop
02:40:25.660 --> 02:40:28.480
is gonna be on September 30th this year.
02:40:28.480 --> 02:40:32.240
We're also planning a lot
of future outreach activities,
02:40:32.240 --> 02:40:34.220
both in connection with
the cold weather standard,
02:40:34.220 --> 02:40:37.670
as well as the joint inquiry
as this kind of moves
02:40:37.670 --> 02:40:38.693
through the process.
02:40:43.024 --> 02:40:44.378
All right.
02:40:44.378 --> 02:40:45.211
Anything else?
02:40:45.211 --> 02:40:47.002
Questions <v
->That's all I have.
02:40:47.002 --> 02:40:49.160
All right, so any other
questions for Mr. Younger?
02:40:49.160 --> 02:40:50.784
Thank you very much for being here.
02:40:50.784 --> 02:40:52.120
Thank you.
02:40:52.120 --> 02:40:55.840
Next up we have
STEC speaking about
02:40:56.730 --> 02:40:57.990
weatherization requirements.
02:40:57.990 --> 02:41:01.015
NESC weatherization
requirements, excuse me.
02:41:01.015 --> 02:41:04.015
We'll be right back.
02:41:13.757 --> 02:41:14.590
Welcome gentleman.
02:41:14.590 --> 02:41:16.630
I would like to say
good morning,, sorry.
02:41:16.630 --> 02:41:18.030
Chairman, Commissioners.
02:41:18.030 --> 02:41:19.170
My name is Cory Allen,
02:41:19.170 --> 02:41:20.850
I'm with South Texas
Electric Cooperative.
02:41:20.850 --> 02:41:23.723
I'm the Manager of the
Power Delivery Division.
02:41:24.810 --> 02:41:28.790
Got Paul Person with me is
the manager of our engineering
02:41:28.790 --> 02:41:31.014
in case there's any questions at all.
02:41:31.014 --> 02:41:32.300
(laughs)
02:41:32.300 --> 02:41:33.360
Welcome both.
02:41:33.360 --> 02:41:34.705
He's gonna help me answer them.
02:41:34.705 --> 02:41:35.538
(laughs)
02:41:35.538 --> 02:41:38.090
So the National Electric Safety Code
02:41:38.090 --> 02:41:40.570
is a standard developed by IEEE's,
02:41:40.570 --> 02:41:42.380
National Electric Safety Committee,
02:41:42.380 --> 02:41:45.840
and they use procedures
that are approved by ANSI.
02:41:51.210 --> 02:41:55.110
This map shows up in two
places, section 23 and section 25
02:41:55.110 --> 02:41:57.050
of the NESC.
02:41:57.050 --> 02:42:00.730
And as you can see,
it covers the 48 states
02:42:00.730 --> 02:42:03.880
and Mexico, parts of Mexico
02:42:03.880 --> 02:42:06.100
but before this clips it off.
02:42:06.100 --> 02:42:09.590
But as you can see that
the three major zones
02:42:09.590 --> 02:42:12.598
are all present in Texas,
02:42:12.598 --> 02:42:16.780
that have differing weather
related characteristics
02:42:16.780 --> 02:42:19.934
that are used in overhead line designs.
02:42:19.934 --> 02:42:22.500
There's a period
of difference substantially
02:42:22.500 --> 02:42:24.090
from the IEA's.
02:42:24.090 --> 02:42:25.200
I'm sorry.
02:42:25.200 --> 02:42:27.270
That map
appears to differ substantially
02:42:27.270 --> 02:42:28.160
from the IEA.
02:42:28.160 --> 02:42:30.366
Much different than the IEA.
02:42:30.366 --> 02:42:31.199
(laughs)
02:42:31.199 --> 02:42:32.032
You're right.
02:42:33.960 --> 02:42:36.552
What voltage
does this go down to?
02:42:36.552 --> 02:42:37.810
All voltages.
02:42:37.810 --> 02:42:38.643
All voltages.
02:42:38.643 --> 02:42:40.590
Overhead lines.
02:42:40.590 --> 02:42:43.050
Transmission
only or distribution also?
02:42:43.050 --> 02:42:44.980
All overhead
lines are covered
02:42:44.980 --> 02:42:48.010
in the National Electric Safety Code.
02:42:48.010 --> 02:42:51.830
I think even even service
drops or it might be in there.
02:42:51.830 --> 02:42:56.500
There is a change point
where in service drops
02:42:56.500 --> 02:42:59.440
as they go into residentials
and commercials
02:42:59.440 --> 02:43:02.870
and also at an industrial complexes
02:43:02.870 --> 02:43:05.550
those are at higher voltage exchanges
02:43:05.550 --> 02:43:07.580
maybe even transmission
voltage exchanges
02:43:07.580 --> 02:43:10.800
that the National Electric
Safety Code doesn't apply to you
02:43:10.800 --> 02:43:13.973
in any seed starts cutting
in and and other codes.
02:43:16.865 --> 02:43:21.163
So a lot of our discussion
will reflect back to these zones.
02:43:24.316 --> 02:43:28.130
So the map notes, clearance
zones one, two and three,
02:43:28.130 --> 02:43:31.600
they determine what specific wind ice
02:43:31.600 --> 02:43:34.550
and temperature
characteristics that land designers
02:43:34.550 --> 02:43:37.930
have to apply whenever
they are putting together
02:43:37.930 --> 02:43:40.050
their plan for clearances,
02:43:40.050 --> 02:43:41.670
making sure they get
the vertical clearances
02:43:41.670 --> 02:43:43.433
above ground and other obstacles.
02:43:44.390 --> 02:43:46.653
The loading zones,
heavy, medium and light.
02:43:47.730 --> 02:43:50.670
Those are the three that are in Texas
02:43:50.670 --> 02:43:55.010
determine where specific
wind and ice mounts
02:43:55.010 --> 02:44:00.010
and temperatures that
designers take into account
02:44:00.330 --> 02:44:02.990
whenever they are
determining the strength
02:44:02.990 --> 02:44:07.990
of the structures the
loading of the wires
02:44:08.240 --> 02:44:10.430
put on the structures
and put on the arms
02:44:10.430 --> 02:44:11.730
and put on the insulators.
02:44:13.110 --> 02:44:15.440
So the first one was Section 23.
02:44:15.440 --> 02:44:17.953
This is the clearance
rules and Rule 230B
02:44:20.388 --> 02:44:24.780
and Section 23 has the ice
and wind loading characteristics
02:44:24.780 --> 02:44:26.680
that the designers have
to take into account.
02:44:26.680 --> 02:44:29.780
It defines the minimum ice
wind speed and temperature
02:44:29.780 --> 02:44:32.580
for each zone cause they differ
02:44:32.580 --> 02:44:35.310
when figuring out
what that conductor sag,
02:44:35.310 --> 02:44:38.100
and what the blowout is
gonna be in wind conditions.
02:44:38.100 --> 02:44:42.130
And ice build up applies
weight to the wires
02:44:42.130 --> 02:44:45.080
which increases the
sag of the conductors,
02:44:45.080 --> 02:44:48.070
that's gotta be taken into
account according to NESC.
02:44:48.939 --> 02:44:52.340
Ice and wind combine
to make a bigger profile,
02:44:52.340 --> 02:44:54.810
a bigger cross section that wind blows
02:44:54.810 --> 02:44:57.410
against on the conductor
and I don't know the structures,
02:44:57.410 --> 02:44:58.430
I guess too.
02:44:58.430 --> 02:45:01.060
And it takes them from
their at rest position.
02:45:01.060 --> 02:45:04.870
So that has an impact on
your horizontal clearances
02:45:04.870 --> 02:45:08.123
to obstacles or even to
your right away boundary.
02:45:10.210 --> 02:45:12.600
The ice and wind and
temperature characteristics,
02:45:12.600 --> 02:45:16.570
they affect the short and
long-term stretching of your wires
02:45:16.570 --> 02:45:19.350
that you have to take into
account in a design phase.
02:45:19.350 --> 02:45:22.470
So table two 30 dash
one has the ice thickness
02:45:22.470 --> 02:45:25.790
for your vertical
clearances essentially.
02:45:25.790 --> 02:45:30.790
And you can see in zone
one has a half inch of ice
02:45:31.750 --> 02:45:35.440
that you have to add to your conductor.
02:45:35.440 --> 02:45:37.140
Zone two a little bit less, right?
02:45:37.140 --> 02:45:38.700
It's quarter-inch.
02:45:38.700 --> 02:45:42.720
Zone three, which most
of stacks 2200 miles of line
02:45:42.720 --> 02:45:46.934
are in a zone three
or light loading zone.
02:45:46.934 --> 02:45:49.037
And it's zero ice.
02:45:49.990 --> 02:45:53.440
So the way that we look at it is the ice
02:45:53.440 --> 02:45:55.640
is assumed to surround it uniformly.
02:45:55.640 --> 02:46:00.370
And so for a inch
conductor like 795 ACSR
02:46:03.063 --> 02:46:04.752
and zone one,
02:46:04.752 --> 02:46:08.300
the heavy loading district
that would add an inch, right?
02:46:08.300 --> 02:46:11.900
So we really double the surface
02:46:11.900 --> 02:46:13.986
that the wind is blowing against.
02:46:13.986 --> 02:46:15.140
So that means...
02:46:15.140 --> 02:46:17.483
So on the zone one,
02:46:18.870 --> 02:46:23.240
you would have to raise
it by 12.5 millimeters.
02:46:23.240 --> 02:46:24.073
Is that right?
02:46:25.000 --> 02:46:25.833
Times two,
02:46:25.833 --> 02:46:27.720
because that's a uniform thickness
02:46:27.720 --> 02:46:29.710
all the way around your wire.
02:46:29.710 --> 02:46:30.543
Got it.
02:46:30.543 --> 02:46:31.376
Okay.
02:46:31.376 --> 02:46:33.250
And that's just a...
02:46:33.250 --> 02:46:36.700
So 24 millimeters or 25 millimeters
02:46:36.700 --> 02:46:41.700
that you would add is that
clearance that you need to add?
02:46:41.730 --> 02:46:45.130
Now, that's actually
the volume of ice
02:46:45.130 --> 02:46:46.900
you have to consider, right?
02:46:46.900 --> 02:46:49.660
And then you calculate
the weight of that.
02:46:49.660 --> 02:46:52.720
And those are inputs
for the clearance of the line
02:46:52.720 --> 02:46:54.620
from the ground to the conductor?
02:46:54.620 --> 02:46:55.453
Yes, sir.
02:46:55.453 --> 02:46:56.286
And other obstacles.
02:46:56.286 --> 02:46:57.330
And other obstacles.
02:46:59.700 --> 02:47:04.520
So this table 230-2
essentially just expands
02:47:04.520 --> 02:47:06.840
upon the table before,
02:47:06.840 --> 02:47:11.660
and it aids in the wind
that we're supposed
02:47:11.660 --> 02:47:14.840
to look at as a minimum
for where that conductor
02:47:14.840 --> 02:47:18.750
is gonna move to in a
wind and ice situation.
02:47:18.750 --> 02:47:19.770
Also as temperatures,
02:47:19.770 --> 02:47:21.410
you can notice that the temperature
02:47:21.410 --> 02:47:24.200
that has to be considered
in his own one is zero
02:47:24.200 --> 02:47:29.200
and then 15 degrees
Fahrenheit in zone two.
02:47:29.730 --> 02:47:34.530
And most of our lines are in
area of design consideration,
02:47:34.530 --> 02:47:38.333
minimum design consideration
is at 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
02:47:41.570 --> 02:47:44.610
I put this in there just
to make some sense of,
02:47:44.610 --> 02:47:48.300
you notice that the winds
are put in there as a pounds
02:47:48.300 --> 02:47:49.133
per square foot.
02:47:49.133 --> 02:47:52.850
So through this table in there
just to show what that meant.
02:47:52.850 --> 02:47:57.573
So if you remember that
the zone one was four pounds
02:47:59.972 --> 02:48:04.972
was mentioned with its half
inch ice on the conductors,
02:48:05.310 --> 02:48:07.763
and so that's about 40 miles an hour.
02:48:09.070 --> 02:48:10.130
Working.
02:48:10.130 --> 02:48:10.963
Good.
02:48:10.963 --> 02:48:12.300
No, sir.
02:48:12.300 --> 02:48:14.950
If you can calculate
that at any velocity
02:48:14.950 --> 02:48:17.356
or estimated any with the...
02:48:17.356 --> 02:48:19.210
I was just gonna ask
02:48:19.210 --> 02:48:21.370
if you could give a relative example
02:48:21.370 --> 02:48:26.370
of what four foot
pounds of or 190 pascals
02:48:27.220 --> 02:48:28.773
looks like in practice.
02:48:30.030 --> 02:48:33.840
So like that
four pounds per foot
02:48:33.840 --> 02:48:38.160
that you have to consider is
40 for the light loading zone,
02:48:38.160 --> 02:48:41.700
for zone one is that nine pounds
02:48:41.700 --> 02:48:45.310
per foot squared is a 60 mile an hour.
02:48:45.310 --> 02:48:48.550
I think 150 mile an hour wind
02:48:48.550 --> 02:48:53.390
is somewhere around 60
pounds per foot squared.
02:48:53.390 --> 02:48:55.140
Maybe a little bit lower than that.
02:48:56.954 --> 02:49:00.270
The NESC does include
a calculation for you
02:49:00.270 --> 02:49:05.270
to look at specific miles
per wind and miles per hour
02:49:05.780 --> 02:49:09.093
to see what that pressure
be on cylindrical surfaces.
02:49:10.497 --> 02:49:11.540
Thank you.
02:49:11.540 --> 02:49:14.820
Is that primarily for
conductors swinging sideways
02:49:14.820 --> 02:49:17.100
outside there the right of
way or within the right of way,
02:49:17.100 --> 02:49:19.783
or is that the wind component of it?
02:49:21.830 --> 02:49:26.367
So we really just look
at a horizontal wind force
02:49:27.760 --> 02:49:28.593
on the wire.
02:49:28.593 --> 02:49:29.920
It's really worst case, right?
02:49:31.180 --> 02:49:33.870
Whether it's kicked
up in a blow out position
02:49:33.870 --> 02:49:36.950
or whether it's down at rest,
02:49:36.950 --> 02:49:39.850
obviously, it's not
gonna be sitting at rest
02:49:39.850 --> 02:49:41.520
whenever there's some high wind blowing,
02:49:41.520 --> 02:49:44.303
but at that at rest is
really gonna be the biggest
02:49:44.303 --> 02:49:47.063
horizontal profile, I guess,
02:49:47.063 --> 02:49:50.713
that our conductor
shows to a wind force,
02:49:52.382 --> 02:49:53.610
you start blowing out.
02:49:53.610 --> 02:49:55.870
I mean, maybe there's an
argument that it's the same
02:49:55.870 --> 02:49:57.110
no matter what.
02:49:57.110 --> 02:49:58.300
No matter what angle it is,
02:49:58.300 --> 02:49:59.964
I would guess it would be the same but.
02:49:59.964 --> 02:50:03.670
So this is both
considering the range of motion
02:50:03.670 --> 02:50:04.503
of the water,
02:50:04.503 --> 02:50:08.530
but also the tension
put on the stabilizing joint
02:50:08.530 --> 02:50:10.093
to make sure it stays in place?
02:50:12.892 --> 02:50:16.140
Our Section 25 of the NESC
02:50:16.140 --> 02:50:18.030
is where it hits into the
strength requirements
02:50:18.030 --> 02:50:20.320
of your structure, your insulator,
02:50:20.320 --> 02:50:21.970
your conductor itself,
02:50:21.970 --> 02:50:23.778
your foundation and everything else.
02:50:23.778 --> 02:50:25.321
I jumped
slides again, I'm sorry.
02:50:25.321 --> 02:50:27.157
No, that's fine.
02:50:27.157 --> 02:50:29.290
It's actually the same wind ice
02:50:29.290 --> 02:50:32.840
and temperature
characteristics for zone.
02:50:32.840 --> 02:50:34.710
You'll see here in a minute.
02:50:34.710 --> 02:50:36.930
So we're jumping into Section 25,
02:50:36.930 --> 02:50:38.630
of what you were talking about.
02:50:38.630 --> 02:50:43.240
Now, Section 25 really
describes three main scenarios
02:50:43.240 --> 02:50:45.160
that the engineer has to look at,
02:50:45.160 --> 02:50:48.600
when he's looking at strength
of the line components,
02:50:48.600 --> 02:50:51.140
250B, that's the combined ice
02:50:51.140 --> 02:50:54.120
and when district loading 250C,
02:50:54.120 --> 02:50:59.120
extreme wind loading and
250D relatively a newcomer,
02:50:59.400 --> 02:51:02.440
extreme ice with
concurrent wind loading.
02:51:02.440 --> 02:51:06.540
And I throw this in there
just to kind of make a visual
02:51:06.540 --> 02:51:11.540
of what we're talking
about with the wind pressure
02:51:12.120 --> 02:51:13.930
on the conductors.
02:51:13.930 --> 02:51:17.820
So any one of all those
three need to be considered
02:51:17.820 --> 02:51:20.680
and whichever one convinces the designer
02:51:20.680 --> 02:51:23.320
of the highest strength components,
02:51:23.320 --> 02:51:25.453
that's the one they'll have to go with.
02:51:28.050 --> 02:51:30.160
So again, this looks really familiar,
02:51:30.160 --> 02:51:33.370
because it's got a lot of the
same information as earlier.
02:51:33.370 --> 02:51:36.040
The heavy is essentially
it's the same area
02:51:36.040 --> 02:51:37.970
as the zone one in the map.
02:51:37.970 --> 02:51:42.360
The half inch of ice uniformly
around the connectors.
02:51:42.360 --> 02:51:47.360
The winds at four pounds and
temperatures at zero degrees
02:51:48.005 --> 02:51:51.760
all the way over here to
what we call the light loading,
02:51:51.760 --> 02:51:55.200
where it's got heavier
wind, you have to consider,
02:51:55.200 --> 02:51:58.453
but no ice and a lot higher temperature.
02:52:03.150 --> 02:52:07.100
So rule 250C and I'm sorry,
02:52:07.100 --> 02:52:09.060
I didn't say that this
is really applicable
02:52:09.060 --> 02:52:10.473
to rule 250B.
02:52:11.585 --> 02:52:13.610
And then a rule 250C,
02:52:13.610 --> 02:52:16.053
this is the extreme wind rule.
02:52:16.950 --> 02:52:19.610
As you can see there along the coast.
02:52:19.610 --> 02:52:24.610
And we do have some coastal
area in our service territories
02:52:26.380 --> 02:52:30.089
is the extreme wind in
the hurricane zones, right?
02:52:30.089 --> 02:52:31.610
That we need to consider.
02:52:31.610 --> 02:52:35.730
We actually at STEC look
at that as as a minimum,
02:52:35.730 --> 02:52:39.100
and not wanting to be
too close to the minimum.
02:52:39.100 --> 02:52:43.840
We had 10 miles per
hour to our wind loading
02:52:46.060 --> 02:52:49.663
thought processes during
our design phase of our lines.
02:52:51.850 --> 02:52:56.850
250D is the extreme ice
extreme wind and ice loading.
02:52:57.680 --> 02:53:01.770
It introduces a new
map here a little bit harder
02:53:01.770 --> 02:53:05.687
to understand and I can hardly read it.
02:53:05.687 --> 02:53:08.060
And I know what it's
supposed to be saying.
02:53:08.060 --> 02:53:12.440
But up here in the
upper part of the state
02:53:12.440 --> 02:53:17.440
and not exactly concurrent
with the zone maps,
02:53:17.770 --> 02:53:22.770
LCRA did file A, a map
that looked pretty good
02:53:23.070 --> 02:53:25.560
at they superimposed these extreme wind
02:53:25.560 --> 02:53:30.363
and ice loading boundary
lines over the heavy,
02:53:31.480 --> 02:53:34.120
medium and light loading zone map.
02:53:34.120 --> 02:53:36.550
That was a pretty good
visual that they had,
02:53:36.550 --> 02:53:39.066
and they call your attention to that.
02:53:39.066 --> 02:53:40.710
And it's maybe easier to understand
02:53:40.710 --> 02:53:42.220
where these things fall out.
02:53:42.220 --> 02:53:45.430
But this is a three
quarters of an inch of an ice
02:53:45.430 --> 02:53:50.430
above this boundary here
that is considered concurrent
02:53:54.110 --> 02:53:55.460
with 30 mile an hour wind.
02:53:55.460 --> 02:53:58.400
So that's your extreme
wind and ice loading
02:53:58.400 --> 02:53:59.410
characteristic there.
02:53:59.410 --> 02:54:03.740
Once you get down here
to Austin, a little bit lower,
02:54:03.740 --> 02:54:06.950
a lot of our territory is in this,
02:54:06.950 --> 02:54:08.950
where you gotta look at a half inch
02:54:08.950 --> 02:54:12.270
and 30 miles an hour of wind.
02:54:12.270 --> 02:54:14.030
So then you get down into the valley.
02:54:14.030 --> 02:54:15.810
Now, we're looking at a quarter inch
02:54:15.810 --> 02:54:18.610
and 30 miles an hour of wind
02:54:19.460 --> 02:54:20.890
when we're considering the strength
02:54:20.890 --> 02:54:22.713
of our components or line.
02:54:24.200 --> 02:54:28.060
So I did wanna point out
that that's not the only things
02:54:28.060 --> 02:54:33.060
that affect our strength and
our decisions upon foundations
02:54:33.700 --> 02:54:37.840
and cross arms, Devin arms, whatever.
02:54:37.840 --> 02:54:40.187
There's also in the NESC and rule 253,
02:54:41.650 --> 02:54:44.180
some load factors,
02:54:44.180 --> 02:54:48.380
all of the transmission lines
are construction Grade B.
02:54:48.380 --> 02:54:51.560
So you can see where we
starting into a traverse loads,
02:54:51.560 --> 02:54:53.500
transverse loads on the lions.
02:54:53.500 --> 02:54:58.500
We've got factors of
safety multipliers in there.
02:54:58.643 --> 02:55:03.050
2.5 and for wire tension is 1.65.
02:55:03.050 --> 02:55:08.050
But so there's other things
besides those wind loading
02:55:08.730 --> 02:55:11.600
and ice loading requirements.
02:55:11.600 --> 02:55:14.890
So I did wanna list there's a
whole bunch of stuff in NESC
02:55:14.890 --> 02:55:17.360
that are not in the slides (giggles)
02:55:17.360 --> 02:55:19.850
that designers are required to go down
02:55:19.850 --> 02:55:21.580
quite a few rabbit holes.
02:55:21.580 --> 02:55:22.993
Altitude differences,
02:55:24.450 --> 02:55:26.660
lines that crosses on boundaries.
02:55:26.660 --> 02:55:28.300
We have only one of those,
02:55:28.300 --> 02:55:31.415
imagine most TSPs have a lot more lines
02:55:31.415 --> 02:55:34.570
that cross zone boundaries
and NESC does talk about
02:55:34.570 --> 02:55:37.320
how to figure those.
02:55:37.320 --> 02:55:42.007
And at certain heights,
some of those extreme wind
02:55:42.007 --> 02:55:45.850
and ice loading
characteristics don't apply.
02:55:45.850 --> 02:55:47.900
If you don't have something
that's over 60 foot tall.
02:55:47.900 --> 02:55:50.050
So there's a lot of other aspects
02:55:50.050 --> 02:55:52.793
that the designer looks
at that are weather related.
02:55:55.000 --> 02:55:56.273
And we're back
at the beginning.
02:55:58.470 --> 02:56:00.620
All right, questions.
02:56:00.620 --> 02:56:01.453
Comments?
02:56:02.980 --> 02:56:04.242
I brought him for nothing?
02:56:04.242 --> 02:56:06.920
(laughs)
02:56:06.920 --> 02:56:09.360
We just assume you did
such a good job explaining it,
02:56:09.360 --> 02:56:13.100
that there's no need for the
engineer to answer questions.
02:56:13.100 --> 02:56:14.601
Thank you all for being here.
02:56:14.601 --> 02:56:16.650
(indistinct)
02:56:16.650 --> 02:56:21.633
That concludes our
work on item number four,
02:56:23.170 --> 02:56:26.690
roughly as planned lunch break,
02:56:26.690 --> 02:56:28.500
30 minutes work for y'all?
02:56:28.500 --> 02:56:29.703
Yes, sir.
02:56:29.703 --> 02:56:31.966
We'll reconvene...
02:56:31.966 --> 02:56:33.250
I don't think anybody has anything
02:56:33.250 --> 02:56:34.330
for items five through nine.
02:56:34.330 --> 02:56:37.950
So when we reconvene at 1:00 p.m,
02:56:37.950 --> 02:56:42.950
we'll move to item 10
regarding staff discussion
02:56:43.200 --> 02:56:46.080
on establishing
weatherization standards.
02:56:46.080 --> 02:56:47.563
We'll be back here at 1:00 p.m.
02:57:10.930 --> 02:57:11.883
Good afternoon.
02:57:13.340 --> 02:57:16.760
At this point, we will
reconvene this meeting
02:57:16.760 --> 02:57:20.020
of the Public Utility
Commission of Texas.
02:57:20.020 --> 02:57:23.190
And I will confirm to my
fellow Commissioners
02:57:23.190 --> 02:57:24.930
that's the last time I take only 30
02:57:24.930 --> 02:57:26.502
instead of 45 minutes for lunch.
02:57:26.502 --> 02:57:28.585
(laughs)
02:57:30.630 --> 02:57:35.630
We are on agenda item number 10,
02:57:35.690 --> 02:57:39.650
rulemaking related to establishing
02:57:39.650 --> 02:57:40.970
weatherization standards
02:57:40.970 --> 02:57:43.370
we have from Commission
staff, Barksdale English
02:57:44.893 --> 02:57:48.220
to discuss the straw
man or draft of drafts
02:57:48.220 --> 02:57:50.353
comments related to project 5184.
02:57:51.550 --> 02:57:52.383
Barksdale.
02:57:52.383 --> 02:57:53.300
Barksadale the floor is yours.
02:57:53.300 --> 02:57:55.700
Thank you very much,
chairman and Commissioners
02:57:55.700 --> 02:57:57.130
I really appreciate the opportunity
02:57:57.130 --> 02:57:58.440
to be able to visit with you today
02:57:58.440 --> 02:58:00.900
and talk about the draft
that staff has proposed
02:58:00.900 --> 02:58:03.440
for the weather preparation standards
02:58:03.440 --> 02:58:05.490
that are required
from Senate Bill three.
02:58:06.520 --> 02:58:09.310
I would be remiss if I
didn't take this very early
02:58:09.310 --> 02:58:12.300
opportunity to say what a
wonderful rule-making team
02:58:12.300 --> 02:58:13.350
that we have.
02:58:13.350 --> 02:58:15.810
All of our team members
are here from Kristin Abbott,
02:58:15.810 --> 02:58:18.260
Keith Rogas, Ramya Ramaswamy
02:58:18.260 --> 02:58:21.420
and Albert Esser are all here.
02:58:21.420 --> 02:58:23.310
We've been working hard
for the last three months.
02:58:23.310 --> 02:58:26.330
We actually passed our three
months birthday yesterday.
02:58:26.330 --> 02:58:29.030
So and that means we've
got three more months to go,
02:58:29.030 --> 02:58:32.333
before the statutory deadline
of completing this rule.
02:58:33.240 --> 02:58:37.640
So I'm happy to say that
procedurally we're right on track.
02:58:37.640 --> 02:58:40.020
Exactly where we were hoping
to be when we first laid out
02:58:40.020 --> 02:58:40.970
our schedule,
02:58:40.970 --> 02:58:44.280
and we're looking forward
to a healthy conversation
02:58:44.280 --> 02:58:48.250
with y'all today to figure
out if we're on the right track
02:58:48.250 --> 02:58:51.233
and how you'd like us to adjust if not.
02:58:54.040 --> 02:58:57.420
I also wanna say that I've
got probably about 15 minutes
02:58:57.420 --> 02:59:00.427
of prepared remarks
that go through the rule.
02:59:00.427 --> 02:59:03.990
If you prefer to just jump
ahead to specific questions,
02:59:03.990 --> 02:59:06.310
please let me know.
02:59:06.310 --> 02:59:07.860
And if not, if you want me to go through
02:59:07.860 --> 02:59:09.940
my prepared presentation,
02:59:09.940 --> 02:59:11.693
please interrupt me at any time.
02:59:12.830 --> 02:59:13.750
Sounds good.
02:59:13.750 --> 02:59:14.860
Go ahead.
02:59:14.860 --> 02:59:16.970
We'll start with the
prepared presentation.
02:59:16.970 --> 02:59:18.320
Great.
02:59:18.320 --> 02:59:21.020
As we started thinking about this rule,
02:59:21.020 --> 02:59:23.150
we learned early on that
we needed to be consulting
02:59:23.150 --> 02:59:23.983
with a lot of folks.
02:59:23.983 --> 02:59:27.400
So we've been working
with a team at ERCOT,
02:59:27.400 --> 02:59:29.930
we've consulted with the
independent market monitor,
02:59:29.930 --> 02:59:33.580
we consulted with the
Texas Reliability Entity,
02:59:33.580 --> 02:59:35.320
as well as the state climatologist.
02:59:35.320 --> 02:59:37.360
We've also had informal
meetings with stakeholders
02:59:37.360 --> 02:59:39.750
from all different
segments of the industry.
02:59:39.750 --> 02:59:41.670
So we've taken a lot of feedback
02:59:41.670 --> 02:59:44.733
in terms of how to think
about weather preparation.
02:59:45.880 --> 02:59:48.829
And part of the reason
why we felt the need to take
02:59:48.829 --> 02:59:52.580
that time to consult with
so many different experts
02:59:52.580 --> 02:59:55.690
in the industry is because the statute
02:59:55.690 --> 02:59:57.630
is an interesting one.
02:59:57.630 --> 02:59:59.760
In that it talks about
weather preparation.
02:59:59.760 --> 03:00:02.210
It doesn't talk about weatherization.
03:00:02.210 --> 03:00:04.250
It doesn't talk about the specific steps
03:00:04.250 --> 03:00:05.740
that need to be taken,
03:00:05.740 --> 03:00:09.790
it talks about preparing to operate
03:00:09.790 --> 03:00:12.352
during a weather emergency.
03:00:12.352 --> 03:00:15.070
And so we spent a lot
of time thinking about
03:00:15.070 --> 03:00:17.833
what does that mean
to prepare to operate?
03:00:19.350 --> 03:00:21.920
And also thinking about the difference
03:00:21.920 --> 03:00:24.253
between preparation and performance.
03:00:25.410 --> 03:00:27.990
And through this rule,
03:00:27.990 --> 03:00:32.990
we have realized that
we need to write rules
03:00:34.180 --> 03:00:38.633
that generators and
transmission operators
03:00:40.010 --> 03:00:42.630
are prepared to operate and can maintain
03:00:42.630 --> 03:00:45.760
their service quality and
provide adequate service
03:00:45.760 --> 03:00:48.463
during certain kinds of
weather emergencies.
03:00:49.900 --> 03:00:52.390
And that's challenging for our market.
03:00:52.390 --> 03:00:54.810
It's challenging for our industry here,
03:00:54.810 --> 03:00:56.670
because in an energy only market,
03:00:56.670 --> 03:00:59.160
it's difficult to imagine what it means
03:00:59.160 --> 03:01:01.680
to have a generation resource
03:01:01.680 --> 03:01:06.680
that has to be ready to provide service,
03:01:08.080 --> 03:01:10.840
because we don't have the
market construct to guarantee
03:01:10.840 --> 03:01:13.750
that they provide service
at any given moment in time.
03:01:13.750 --> 03:01:16.653
And so that's a difficult
thing for us to conceptualize.
03:01:18.590 --> 03:01:21.090
We also know need
to think a little bit about
03:01:22.520 --> 03:01:24.380
where we set our standards
03:01:24.380 --> 03:01:29.330
so that if we go too far too fast,
03:01:29.330 --> 03:01:33.460
we actually end up
with a tag-a-long effect
03:01:33.460 --> 03:01:37.720
where we see more resources
exiting the market early
03:01:37.720 --> 03:01:40.260
because of the costs
that might be incurred
03:01:40.260 --> 03:01:42.193
to have to prepare those units.
03:01:44.220 --> 03:01:47.680
And finally, the last
really big challenge
03:01:47.680 --> 03:01:49.010
that we faced as a team
03:01:49.010 --> 03:01:51.040
was the short implementation deadline.
03:01:51.040 --> 03:01:53.150
And six months to write a rule
03:01:53.150 --> 03:01:57.180
that the Commission has
never taken out before,
03:01:57.180 --> 03:01:59.810
we've never regulated
in this area before.
03:01:59.810 --> 03:02:01.590
And one that's as complex
03:02:01.590 --> 03:02:04.910
and is as important
to the public as it is,
03:02:04.910 --> 03:02:06.470
it's been a difficult challenge.
03:02:06.470 --> 03:02:10.023
And hopefully you see the thoughtfulness
03:02:10.023 --> 03:02:11.963
of those preparations.
03:02:13.180 --> 03:02:16.160
So the rule, excuse me,
03:02:16.160 --> 03:02:19.160
the statute talks about preparation.
03:02:19.160 --> 03:02:21.820
And I mentioned
before that we tried hard
03:02:21.820 --> 03:02:24.363
to not focus on performance.
03:02:25.517 --> 03:02:30.517
And similarly, we tried
hard to not focus on planning.
03:02:31.430 --> 03:02:34.200
And you heard from the
TRE earlier this morning
03:02:34.200 --> 03:02:37.190
about the cold weather
standards that they're working on.
03:02:37.190 --> 03:02:39.920
And so we actually
see this proposed rule
03:02:39.920 --> 03:02:42.530
is working really well with what NERC
03:02:42.530 --> 03:02:45.440
and hopefully FERC will
be doing later on this year.
03:02:45.440 --> 03:02:47.220
They're tackling the planning part,
03:02:47.220 --> 03:02:50.100
here we're tackling
the preparation part.
03:02:50.100 --> 03:02:53.140
And then the performance part is an area
03:02:53.140 --> 03:02:57.450
where my real day job is
you're a director of compliance
03:02:57.450 --> 03:02:58.283
and enforcement.
03:02:58.283 --> 03:03:00.990
If there are performance
issues during a weather event,
03:03:00.990 --> 03:03:02.830
then that's something
that we would look at,
03:03:02.830 --> 03:03:04.433
on a case by case basis.
03:03:05.820 --> 03:03:09.380
But the critical point that I
wanna make here is that,
03:03:09.380 --> 03:03:11.200
performance in and of itself during
03:03:11.200 --> 03:03:12.600
any given weather emergency,
03:03:12.600 --> 03:03:15.680
isn't something that we have proposed
03:03:15.680 --> 03:03:17.873
to regulate in this role.
03:03:22.730 --> 03:03:26.880
Part of the reason why we
haven't proposed that here is,
03:03:26.880 --> 03:03:28.140
one for the clear reason,
03:03:28.140 --> 03:03:31.040
because the statute
talks about preparation.
03:03:31.040 --> 03:03:34.990
Another one is that our
market structure in ERCOT
03:03:34.990 --> 03:03:38.950
is such that there is a voluntary basis
03:03:38.950 --> 03:03:41.185
on which generators commit their units.
03:03:41.185 --> 03:03:42.613
They have to communicate with ERCOT,
03:03:42.613 --> 03:03:44.400
they have to tell them
when they're gonna run,
03:03:44.400 --> 03:03:45.490
when they're not gonna run.
03:03:45.490 --> 03:03:46.490
But at the end of the day,
03:03:46.490 --> 03:03:49.500
it's up to that resource in
the real-time energy market
03:03:49.500 --> 03:03:52.350
to say whether they're
gonna perform or not.
03:03:52.350 --> 03:03:57.350
And there are some other
products that exist in ERCOT,
03:03:58.480 --> 03:04:00.150
the ancillary services products,
03:04:00.150 --> 03:04:01.440
emergency response service.
03:04:01.440 --> 03:04:04.800
These are capacity products
for which generators get paid
03:04:04.800 --> 03:04:07.537
to be available to perform.
03:04:07.537 --> 03:04:12.537
So we do have some
kind of ancillary products
03:04:13.590 --> 03:04:16.020
to the overall market construct,
03:04:16.020 --> 03:04:18.210
where we can think about
what it means to perform
03:04:18.210 --> 03:04:20.060
during a weather emergency.
03:04:20.060 --> 03:04:25.060
But in the moment, when
the rubber meets the road,
03:04:28.180 --> 03:04:30.062
there's really not a
great market construct
03:04:30.062 --> 03:04:31.743
to think about performance.
03:04:34.090 --> 03:04:37.370
So thinking about
what it means to prepare
03:04:38.760 --> 03:04:40.803
for a weather emergency,
03:04:42.600 --> 03:04:47.530
we have to think about
what a reliability standard is?
03:04:47.530 --> 03:04:52.530
We have to think about what
does it mean to be prepared,
03:04:52.560 --> 03:04:55.320
to operate during extreme weather.
03:04:55.320 --> 03:04:59.100
And this morning we heard
from a representative of Calpine
03:04:59.100 --> 03:05:04.100
about all the very idiosyncratic steps
03:05:04.410 --> 03:05:09.080
that they have to take to
get their resource prepared
03:05:09.080 --> 03:05:10.530
at that site.
03:05:10.530 --> 03:05:12.950
And we've noted
through our conversations
03:05:12.950 --> 03:05:15.650
with all of the different
industry stakeholders
03:05:16.530 --> 03:05:18.930
that those steps to prepare
03:05:18.930 --> 03:05:22.470
are not just different owner to owner,
03:05:22.470 --> 03:05:24.290
but there are also
different plant to plant.
03:05:24.290 --> 03:05:26.870
So the same owner
could have different steps
03:05:26.870 --> 03:05:31.863
to prepare their site in their
plants all across the state.
03:05:33.160 --> 03:05:35.420
And so that leads us to think
03:05:35.420 --> 03:05:40.010
about not having technical
requirements in this rule,
03:05:40.010 --> 03:05:43.830
because if we set something
down on paper that says,
03:05:43.830 --> 03:05:48.830
thou shall have tarps up in
any northwesterly facing area.
03:05:50.270 --> 03:05:51.490
First of all, that might be great,
03:05:51.490 --> 03:05:53.730
and that might be best practice,
03:05:53.730 --> 03:05:56.933
but that could not necessarily apply
03:05:56.933 --> 03:05:59.060
or be relevant to plants
03:06:00.192 --> 03:06:01.800
that don't have those
kinds of characteristics.
03:06:01.800 --> 03:06:03.920
And then we would be
requiring generation owners
03:06:03.920 --> 03:06:06.880
to be doing things that just
aren't really helping solve
03:06:06.880 --> 03:06:08.520
any problems.
03:06:08.520 --> 03:06:11.950
And second, technology
moves faster than government,
03:06:11.950 --> 03:06:14.090
and innovation moves
faster than government.
03:06:14.090 --> 03:06:17.620
And so rather than trying
to set a minimum standard
03:06:17.620 --> 03:06:20.450
of specific technical things
03:06:20.450 --> 03:06:24.150
that folks have to do
to be ready to operate,
03:06:24.150 --> 03:06:27.460
we would rather put that
burden on them and say,
03:06:27.460 --> 03:06:31.370
look, you have to prepare
to a certain standard
03:06:31.370 --> 03:06:33.740
and you have to figure
out what the best way,
03:06:33.740 --> 03:06:36.090
the most cost-effective way
and the most reliable way
03:06:36.090 --> 03:06:37.790
of doing it is,
03:06:37.790 --> 03:06:39.890
because you were far more motivated
03:06:39.890 --> 03:06:42.691
to get your plant ready to run,
03:06:42.691 --> 03:06:44.860
and know the steps that you need to take
03:06:44.860 --> 03:06:47.010
at that individual site
and across your fleet
03:06:47.010 --> 03:06:47.910
in order to do it.
03:06:51.570 --> 03:06:56.313
So given all of that background,
03:06:58.280 --> 03:07:00.620
we're kind of left to the
point of trying to define
03:07:00.620 --> 03:07:02.423
what a weather emergency is?
03:07:04.080 --> 03:07:07.480
And the best way that
we've come up with,
03:07:07.480 --> 03:07:11.500
is to think about all of
the historical weather data
03:07:11.500 --> 03:07:13.390
that exists in the state,
03:07:13.390 --> 03:07:18.390
and figuring out what are situations
03:07:18.500 --> 03:07:21.590
in which we would
expect a generation owner
03:07:21.590 --> 03:07:26.590
and a transmission owner to
be prepared to provide service.
03:07:27.620 --> 03:07:32.120
And I think you've heard from both Chris
03:07:32.120 --> 03:07:33.440
and John this morning,
03:07:33.440 --> 03:07:35.730
that there are a lot of
different ways to slice that data.
03:07:35.730 --> 03:07:39.690
You can look at an individual
event and you can say,
03:07:39.690 --> 03:07:42.430
well, this was the coldest average day
03:07:42.430 --> 03:07:45.680
in the last 100 years,
but if you think about it,
03:07:45.680 --> 03:07:48.203
in terms of the number
of hours in a year
03:07:48.203 --> 03:07:51.100
then maybe it was
only the seventh coldest
03:07:51.100 --> 03:07:52.070
in the last a hundred years,
03:07:52.070 --> 03:07:53.423
or something like that.
03:07:55.199 --> 03:07:59.853
So because the data is complicated,
03:08:00.860 --> 03:08:05.860
and because it's the
availability of that data is variable.
03:08:08.130 --> 03:08:09.950
You heard Chris talking
about having to go out
03:08:09.950 --> 03:08:13.000
and buy reliable weather data.
03:08:13.000 --> 03:08:15.220
I think John's got
access to a little bit
03:08:15.220 --> 03:08:17.620
of more robust data given his role
03:08:17.620 --> 03:08:19.203
as the state climatologist.
03:08:20.647 --> 03:08:22.410
And Chairman, I noticed that you said
03:08:22.410 --> 03:08:23.330
you were gonna talk to,
03:08:23.330 --> 03:08:25.360
you know, when generators
came and visited you,
03:08:25.360 --> 03:08:26.590
you're gonna ask them where they get
03:08:26.590 --> 03:08:27.993
their weather data from?
03:08:29.240 --> 03:08:33.560
Because those are all potentially
different sources of data,
03:08:33.560 --> 03:08:37.880
we thought it best to
use Chris and ERCOT
03:08:37.880 --> 03:08:42.630
to come up with a definitive dataset
03:08:42.630 --> 03:08:47.630
that we could feel comfortable
was they were valid data
03:08:48.240 --> 03:08:53.240
and it was quality data and
generate some scenarios
03:08:54.170 --> 03:08:58.123
that were probable outcomes
both now and in the future.
03:09:00.170 --> 03:09:03.779
And this has proved to
be a more difficult task
03:09:03.779 --> 03:09:07.960
than I think we on
staff originally imagined,
03:09:07.960 --> 03:09:12.053
because of the quality of the
data that Chris has access to.
03:09:14.160 --> 03:09:17.200
I think he and his folks have
spent a lot of time gathering
03:09:17.200 --> 03:09:19.380
that data and trying to
figure out where the holes are,
03:09:19.380 --> 03:09:21.820
and why the analysis
isn't quite running the way
03:09:21.820 --> 03:09:23.470
that they were hoping to?
03:09:23.470 --> 03:09:25.430
But I know he's working hard
03:09:25.430 --> 03:09:29.693
and is making good
progress even as of yesterday.
03:09:32.520 --> 03:09:36.950
And so in this rule,
we have asked ERCOT,
03:09:36.950 --> 03:09:41.950
or we've proposed to ask
ERCOT to analyze this dataset
03:09:42.020 --> 03:09:44.850
and for some specific parameters
03:09:44.850 --> 03:09:49.620
for high and low temperatures
for wind precipitation,
03:09:49.620 --> 03:09:51.640
for duration of these parameters,
03:09:51.640 --> 03:09:53.660
you know, how long those things
03:09:55.380 --> 03:09:57.283
last over the course of a day.
03:09:58.450 --> 03:10:01.680
And consider these
parameters on a regional basis
03:10:01.680 --> 03:10:03.260
so that we're not just setting,
03:10:03.260 --> 03:10:05.110
we're not just thinking about weather
03:10:06.570 --> 03:10:08.443
one point in the entire state.
03:10:09.450 --> 03:10:11.410
I will also note that
ERCOT is interested
03:10:11.410 --> 03:10:12.993
in looking at humidity as well.
03:10:15.786 --> 03:10:18.340
And to use the data
to be able to come up
03:10:18.340 --> 03:10:22.340
with a probability of occurrence
03:10:23.420 --> 03:10:25.450
for any of these given parameters,
03:10:25.450 --> 03:10:27.840
as well as a combination
of those parameters,
03:10:27.840 --> 03:10:31.660
so that we can then
cobble together this notion
03:10:31.660 --> 03:10:35.520
of kind of being prepared to operate
03:10:38.490 --> 03:10:41.423
through the 95th
percentile of weather events.
03:10:42.300 --> 03:10:47.300
And the reason why we chose
95% here is for a few reasons.
03:10:48.960 --> 03:10:51.020
First, it kind of lines up nicely
03:10:51.020 --> 03:10:55.110
with some statistical probabilities.
03:10:55.110 --> 03:10:58.600
I think this is the second
standard deviation
03:10:58.600 --> 03:11:01.100
and in a normally distributed curve.
03:11:01.100 --> 03:11:03.420
I took just enough
statistics in graduate school
03:11:03.420 --> 03:11:05.180
to be dangerous.
03:11:05.180 --> 03:11:08.033
So somebody will kick me
from behind if I got that wrong.
03:11:10.270 --> 03:11:15.270
And also because we know that
there are generation operators
03:11:17.630 --> 03:11:19.700
out there who have already taken steps
03:11:19.700 --> 03:11:23.910
to prepare their plants
for extreme weather.
03:11:23.910 --> 03:11:26.427
There are others who have done more,
03:11:26.427 --> 03:11:28.300
and there are some who've done less.
03:11:28.300 --> 03:11:31.450
And we don't quite
know exactly what level
03:11:31.450 --> 03:11:33.140
that they're at right now.
03:11:33.140 --> 03:11:35.630
And so we wanted to set a floor
03:11:35.630 --> 03:11:38.350
that everybody would have to meet.
03:11:38.350 --> 03:11:40.790
Everybody would have
to be prepared to operate
03:11:40.790 --> 03:11:42.680
through these different
kinds of conditions.
03:11:42.680 --> 03:11:46.500
And so this is just your
basic standard of operating
03:11:46.500 --> 03:11:49.360
as a good utility operator.
03:11:49.360 --> 03:11:52.630
This is what we expect of you
when you come into the market,
03:11:52.630 --> 03:11:54.950
this is what a lot of people
have already been doing.
03:11:54.950 --> 03:11:56.190
And if you haven't been doing,
03:11:56.190 --> 03:11:58.340
you gotta catch up
to the rest of the pack.
03:12:02.050 --> 03:12:04.260
And then beyond that,
03:12:04.260 --> 03:12:08.420
if we want to look for
higher levels of reliability,
03:12:08.420 --> 03:12:11.720
we wanted to incentivize
folks to go after that,
03:12:11.720 --> 03:12:15.720
by thinking about different
kinds of products or services
03:12:15.720 --> 03:12:18.700
that we might be able to
procure through ERCOT
03:12:18.700 --> 03:12:22.340
that brings on or captures more capacity
03:12:22.340 --> 03:12:26.893
that's been prepared to operate
through more extreme events.
03:12:28.750 --> 03:12:32.350
And so we used this
concept of the enhanced
03:12:32.350 --> 03:12:35.140
reliability standard
at the 98th percentile
03:12:36.180 --> 03:12:38.480
as this signal to the market,
03:12:38.480 --> 03:12:42.670
that to go above and beyond
03:12:42.670 --> 03:12:45.623
what we would expect you to
do as a good utility operator,
03:12:47.530 --> 03:12:51.000
you might be able to
receive some cost recovery
03:12:51.000 --> 03:12:54.083
for the efforts that
you've taken to get there.
03:12:55.370 --> 03:12:59.300
And we've been working with
commercial operations folks
03:12:59.300 --> 03:13:00.770
at ERCOT to think about different
03:13:00.770 --> 03:13:02.690
kinds of services or products
03:13:02.690 --> 03:13:06.590
that might be designed
using that as a backbone
03:13:06.590 --> 03:13:08.370
for qualification.
03:13:08.370 --> 03:13:10.400
I also would note that hopefully
03:13:10.400 --> 03:13:14.140
that might fit in interestingly
into y'all's conversations
03:13:14.140 --> 03:13:15.543
about market redesign.
03:13:17.162 --> 03:13:21.540
And we could imagine a scenario
03:13:21.540 --> 03:13:23.860
in which this enhanced
reliability standard
03:13:23.860 --> 03:13:26.080
gets pulled out of
this world altogether.
03:13:26.080 --> 03:13:29.910
And it saved for your
conversations on market redesign
03:13:29.910 --> 03:13:31.533
if that makes most sense.
03:13:34.350 --> 03:13:39.350
And the final reliability standard
that we have imagined is,
03:13:39.476 --> 03:13:43.280
the 99 point seventh
percentile of events,
03:13:43.280 --> 03:13:46.807
and this is the third standard
deviation as I understand it.
03:13:46.807 --> 03:13:50.500
And so it's really the
extreme of the extreme events.
03:13:50.500 --> 03:13:55.070
And we had imagined
using this for the box start
03:13:55.070 --> 03:13:56.310
service units.
03:13:56.310 --> 03:14:01.030
Those units which we
need to be able to start up
03:14:01.030 --> 03:14:04.860
in the worst of scenarios so
that we can restore our grid
03:14:05.700 --> 03:14:07.023
as quickly as we can.
03:14:08.030 --> 03:14:11.213
There's some issues with
the way that we've laid it out.
03:14:12.420 --> 03:14:15.063
There's an entire black start plan
03:14:15.063 --> 03:14:17.530
that starts with an individual unit
03:14:17.530 --> 03:14:19.680
and then kind of builds together,
03:14:19.680 --> 03:14:21.800
cobbles together an island of many units
03:14:21.800 --> 03:14:24.260
and then kind of grows
back to the entire grid.
03:14:24.260 --> 03:14:28.053
And several commenters have said,
03:14:29.046 --> 03:14:31.700
it's all fine and good
to get the individual
03:14:31.700 --> 03:14:34.780
black start units
weatherized up to this,
03:14:34.780 --> 03:14:38.610
or prepared to operate
up to this 99.7 percentile.
03:14:38.610 --> 03:14:41.300
But what about the next
units in the crank path?
03:14:41.300 --> 03:14:43.700
And so if you're not
going to address those,
03:14:43.700 --> 03:14:47.360
and you're not really
guaranteeing any ability
03:14:47.360 --> 03:14:50.000
for the grid to be restorative,
03:14:50.000 --> 03:14:51.950
if it goes into blackout.
03:14:51.950 --> 03:14:55.220
And that's a valid
point, that's a fair point.
03:14:55.220 --> 03:14:59.950
And so that might be an
area that we wanna look at.
03:14:59.950 --> 03:15:01.900
We also would note that it would mean
03:15:01.900 --> 03:15:04.060
that there are several more units
03:15:04.060 --> 03:15:06.680
that are available for
real-time energy operations,
03:15:06.680 --> 03:15:11.480
that would be weatherized
and prepared to operate
03:15:11.480 --> 03:15:14.040
in the most extreme circumstances.
03:15:14.040 --> 03:15:16.703
So incrementally, we
find that there's value in it.
03:15:17.677 --> 03:15:20.770
And it's possible that
we might think about
03:15:22.770 --> 03:15:25.680
setting the standard
out now for the individual
03:15:25.680 --> 03:15:28.040
black start units and
then coming back later
03:15:28.040 --> 03:15:31.300
to think about the entire
black start service plan
03:15:31.300 --> 03:15:33.083
and how to prepare that path?
03:15:35.300 --> 03:15:39.780
So before I go on with anything else,
03:15:39.780 --> 03:15:43.220
I wanted to take a moment
and see if y'all had any thoughts
03:15:43.220 --> 03:15:45.790
or questions or comments about this,
03:15:45.790 --> 03:15:48.750
you know, kind of the
overall scope and concept
03:15:48.750 --> 03:15:49.750
that we've laid out.
03:15:51.240 --> 03:15:54.210
And more specifically,
if you have any opinions
03:15:54.210 --> 03:15:56.613
about the weather study
that we've proposed,
03:15:57.500 --> 03:15:59.350
either based on what
you've read or heard today,
03:15:59.350 --> 03:16:01.753
or other thoughts.
03:16:02.720 --> 03:16:04.420
Questions or comments.
03:16:04.420 --> 03:16:05.253
Yeah, Bark.
03:16:05.253 --> 03:16:08.130
So I just have some questions
about the weather study
03:16:08.130 --> 03:16:12.590
and I guess just background
facts and maybe a status update.
03:16:12.590 --> 03:16:14.350
Yes, please.
03:16:14.350 --> 03:16:16.390
So it sounds like ERCOT is
in the process of developing
03:16:16.390 --> 03:16:17.590
that study right now.
03:16:17.590 --> 03:16:18.700
Yes.
03:16:18.700 --> 03:16:22.330
In consultation with
the state climatologist.
03:16:22.330 --> 03:16:23.163
Yes.
03:16:23.163 --> 03:16:26.723
Are there any other
additional weather resources
03:16:27.990 --> 03:16:30.390
that they're using for the study?
03:16:30.390 --> 03:16:35.210
So we actually,
Albert has received data
03:16:35.210 --> 03:16:38.880
from an organization
called the American Society
03:16:38.880 --> 03:16:43.880
of Heating Refrigeration and
Air Conditioning Engineers,
03:16:44.010 --> 03:16:44.843
ASHRAE.
03:16:44.843 --> 03:16:46.400
I think I got all those letters right.
03:16:47.370 --> 03:16:52.370
And it's actually proven to
be a pretty robust set of data
03:16:54.570 --> 03:16:56.513
for the last 30 years.
03:16:58.490 --> 03:17:01.250
If I understand correctly and
remember our conversations
03:17:01.250 --> 03:17:02.083
right there,
03:17:02.083 --> 03:17:04.050
they're over a hundred different points
03:17:04.050 --> 03:17:06.870
throughout the entire state
from which they collect data
03:17:06.870 --> 03:17:09.450
and they've been doing it meticulously.
03:17:09.450 --> 03:17:11.823
And so the quality of the data is good.
03:17:12.850 --> 03:17:14.320
And the reliability of the data,
03:17:14.320 --> 03:17:16.393
I think somebody smarter
than me would tell you
03:17:16.393 --> 03:17:17.693
if it's good.
03:17:18.880 --> 03:17:21.370
The sole problem with it is
that it's only about 30 years
03:17:21.370 --> 03:17:22.360
worth of data.
03:17:22.360 --> 03:17:24.210
And so we're not really
gonna be capturing
03:17:24.210 --> 03:17:26.963
some of the more extreme events
03:17:26.963 --> 03:17:29.400
that the state has experienced,
03:17:29.400 --> 03:17:34.883
certainly dating back to
1895, but others as well.
03:17:35.830 --> 03:17:38.130
Okay, so I'm gonna take
one step back actually,
03:17:38.130 --> 03:17:40.513
as I was reading through
the discussion draft,
03:17:41.350 --> 03:17:44.160
I was sort of just kind
of tying it all together
03:17:44.160 --> 03:17:48.260
in terms of meeting
the statutory deadline
03:17:48.260 --> 03:17:50.710
to have the standards in place,
03:17:50.710 --> 03:17:53.140
and then the timing of the study.
03:17:53.140 --> 03:17:54.640
Can you provide me a
little bit of background
03:17:54.640 --> 03:17:58.780
as to why the weather
studies being completed
03:17:58.780 --> 03:18:01.553
after the standards are developed or.
03:18:02.930 --> 03:18:05.400
It's a little bit of a chicken
and an egg situation.
03:18:05.400 --> 03:18:06.290
I agree with you.
03:18:06.290 --> 03:18:09.720
And part of it is just we set that date
03:18:09.720 --> 03:18:13.130
based on our
understanding of the timeline
03:18:13.130 --> 03:18:16.203
in which ERCOT felt it
could complete this work.
03:18:17.539 --> 03:18:21.200
And we saw a lot of commentary
from market participants
03:18:21.200 --> 03:18:24.130
that it just doesn't make
sense to approve a rule
03:18:24.130 --> 03:18:27.890
that's got a particular
percentiles identified
03:18:27.890 --> 03:18:29.990
before the other study
has been completed.
03:18:29.990 --> 03:18:33.163
And I think those are valid concerns.
03:18:34.420 --> 03:18:36.810
So the statute
that SB three says,
03:18:36.810 --> 03:18:39.810
the Commission shall
develop a study in consultation
03:18:39.810 --> 03:18:40.680
with state climatologists.
03:18:40.680 --> 03:18:43.760
So at some point I
suspect before I got here,
03:18:43.760 --> 03:18:47.440
there was a decision made for
ERCOT to conduct this study.
03:18:47.440 --> 03:18:49.070
Was that a staff level decision,
03:18:49.070 --> 03:18:50.603
a Commission level decision?
03:18:51.620 --> 03:18:53.730
It was a staff decision,
03:18:53.730 --> 03:18:58.680
because this is not
intended to be disrespectful
03:18:58.680 --> 03:19:00.150
to John at all.
03:19:00.150 --> 03:19:02.230
His office does amazing work.
03:19:02.230 --> 03:19:03.660
It's not done through the lens
03:19:03.660 --> 03:19:07.350
of the electric power utility industry.
03:19:07.350 --> 03:19:10.198
And so thinking about
what weather data means
03:19:10.198 --> 03:19:15.198
to generation resource or
to a transmission substation,
03:19:16.660 --> 03:19:18.350
there is a particular filter
03:19:18.350 --> 03:19:21.227
that we wanna be able to
put on to that weather data
03:19:21.227 --> 03:19:22.840
and to that analysis to say,
03:19:22.840 --> 03:19:24.820
now, this is actually a
more meaningful way
03:19:24.820 --> 03:19:26.370
to be thinking about that data.
03:19:27.930 --> 03:19:32.930
Did staff ever consider
hiring a third-party independent
03:19:33.810 --> 03:19:36.810
sort of expert on running the study?
03:19:36.810 --> 03:19:39.080
I know ERCOT has a
lot on its plate right now,
03:19:39.080 --> 03:19:44.080
and there certain folks out
there have different ideas
03:19:44.200 --> 03:19:47.233
about weather forecasting done by ERCOT.
03:19:51.230 --> 03:19:53.390
Was there any thought
about hire an independent,
03:19:53.390 --> 03:19:55.090
you know, the Commission
since the Commission
03:19:55.090 --> 03:19:56.580
is required to do so under SB three,
03:19:56.580 --> 03:19:59.840
the Commission hiring
an independent expert
03:19:59.840 --> 03:20:01.470
to work with the state climatologist
03:20:01.470 --> 03:20:03.380
and a variety of other
weather resources,
03:20:03.380 --> 03:20:06.490
maybe some of the ones
that might've been alluded
03:20:06.490 --> 03:20:09.680
to that have high quality
data that are paid for?
03:20:09.680 --> 03:20:10.530
To be quite honest,
03:20:10.530 --> 03:20:13.610
we were concerned that
the process for going through
03:20:13.610 --> 03:20:15.900
a request for proposals
was gonna take us too long
03:20:15.900 --> 03:20:18.700
to be able to meet the
six months deadline.
03:20:18.700 --> 03:20:21.490
Okay, it's a question
of making sure
03:20:21.490 --> 03:20:24.683
you get that study done in time or,
03:20:25.670 --> 03:20:28.410
but it's being done after. (chuckles)
03:20:28.410 --> 03:20:30.223
I appreciate your point.
03:20:34.280 --> 03:20:38.980
Okay, I'll let you all ask questions.
03:20:38.980 --> 03:20:42.680
Yeah, I think
another way of putting
03:20:42.680 --> 03:20:45.260
ourselves last statement
of the resource constraints
03:20:45.260 --> 03:20:50.260
is that the two plus month RFP
process for an outside vendor
03:20:50.900 --> 03:20:53.250
would have taken up
30 a third of the time
03:20:53.250 --> 03:20:55.003
to complete the entire effort,
03:20:56.330 --> 03:20:58.453
which is not ideal.
03:21:00.600 --> 03:21:05.460
And I can see that being a tough choice
03:21:06.870 --> 03:21:10.393
in an uncertain environment
with not a lot of great options.
03:21:11.350 --> 03:21:12.357
Sure.
03:21:12.357 --> 03:21:14.270
A thing that we've
been thinking about
03:21:14.270 --> 03:21:16.150
over the last two weeks
03:21:16.150 --> 03:21:20.060
or so as we've been in
communication with ERCOT
03:21:20.060 --> 03:21:21.760
about their weather study process,
03:21:23.318 --> 03:21:26.983
is there something that
we can put into the rule now
03:21:28.120 --> 03:21:32.860
that will address kind of our
near term immediate concerns
03:21:32.860 --> 03:21:35.350
and allow the weather study to play out,
03:21:35.350 --> 03:21:38.150
and then allow that to inform
03:21:38.150 --> 03:21:40.363
what this 95th percentile might mean?
03:21:41.270 --> 03:21:46.170
And something that that
we've kicked around is,
03:21:46.170 --> 03:21:50.420
could we come up with
some reasonable language
03:21:50.420 --> 03:21:55.420
that says generator
X, figure out what broke
03:21:57.230 --> 03:22:00.700
in URI or figure out what broke in 2011,
03:22:00.700 --> 03:22:04.120
make sure that you've
got a plan to fix it,
03:22:04.120 --> 03:22:09.120
make sure you fixed it by December 1st
03:22:09.350 --> 03:22:10.883
or something like that.
03:22:11.960 --> 03:22:16.270
Or an alternative could be identify
03:22:16.270 --> 03:22:18.910
all of your cold weather
critical components
03:22:18.910 --> 03:22:21.690
to steal next language and make sure
03:22:21.690 --> 03:22:24.410
that you've wrapped it in insulation,
03:22:24.410 --> 03:22:28.680
that you've proactively
tested all of your heat tracing.
03:22:28.680 --> 03:22:30.270
You've put Hoffman boxes up
03:22:30.270 --> 03:22:32.720
around all of your critical sensors,
03:22:32.720 --> 03:22:35.840
and guarantee certified that you've done
03:22:35.840 --> 03:22:40.420
that to the Commission
now as a stop gap measure
03:22:40.420 --> 03:22:42.460
so that we can complete
the weather study
03:22:42.460 --> 03:22:44.440
and move on to
something that's a little bit
03:22:44.440 --> 03:22:49.410
more thoughtful, if
that's a reasonable word.
03:22:49.410 --> 03:22:54.360
Would that establish or
fulfill the statutory deadline?
03:22:54.360 --> 03:22:57.500
I think depending
on y'all's direction,
03:22:57.500 --> 03:22:58.740
I think we could probably put
03:22:58.740 --> 03:23:00.960
that into the proposal for publication,
03:23:00.960 --> 03:23:04.160
which we want to put
before you on August 28th
03:23:04.160 --> 03:23:05.353
for your consideration.
03:23:08.520 --> 03:23:10.730
Yeah, because throughout
the discussion draft,
03:23:10.730 --> 03:23:15.340
in terms of compliance for
the generation companies
03:23:15.340 --> 03:23:18.880
and TSPs it all refers
back to the weather study.
03:23:18.880 --> 03:23:19.897
Sure, it does.
03:23:19.897 --> 03:23:22.990
And so it sounds like
there could be an approach
03:23:22.990 --> 03:23:27.940
to address the statutory
deadline in a phased manner
03:23:29.110 --> 03:23:34.110
to maybe create some kind of
a robust baseline of standards
03:23:35.260 --> 03:23:38.560
that's driven by information
that the generators provide us
03:23:38.560 --> 03:23:42.490
as to what they're doing and
some maybe additional measures.
03:23:42.490 --> 03:23:44.520
And then once we get the weather study,
03:23:44.520 --> 03:23:48.160
then decide based on that study,
03:23:48.160 --> 03:23:50.210
what additional measures
might be needed?
03:23:51.159 --> 03:23:53.076
I think that's right.
03:23:55.300 --> 03:24:00.300
Well, I like the
concept of a first pass
03:24:02.580 --> 03:24:07.430
being a request to
generators to identify problems
03:24:07.430 --> 03:24:09.363
from the February event,
03:24:10.670 --> 03:24:12.030
demonstrate to the Commission
03:24:12.030 --> 03:24:13.690
and demonstrate to the Commission,
03:24:13.690 --> 03:24:16.350
what they've done to
address those acute problems
03:24:16.350 --> 03:24:18.752
before we go into the next winter.
03:24:18.752 --> 03:24:21.820
I think that's something
that's important
03:24:21.820 --> 03:24:23.170
that needs to be addressed.
03:24:25.700 --> 03:24:30.380
And if nothing else to ensure
03:24:30.380 --> 03:24:34.860
that we have some measurable
and substantial degree
03:24:34.860 --> 03:24:36.860
of improvement and
increase in resiliency
03:24:36.860 --> 03:24:40.163
as Texas goes into this upcoming winter.
03:24:41.230 --> 03:24:45.750
That being said, I'm not
quite sure how to resolve
03:24:45.750 --> 03:24:47.850
the chicken and egg
problem as you put it,
03:24:48.840 --> 03:24:51.670
while still fulfilling the
legislature's clear desire
03:24:51.670 --> 03:24:53.280
to have weatherization
standards in place
03:24:53.280 --> 03:24:54.430
by the end of the year.
03:24:56.900 --> 03:24:59.020
So that's something that may need
03:24:59.020 --> 03:25:01.060
to be an ongoing
conversation with staff.
03:25:01.060 --> 03:25:04.493
I certainly don't wanna in any way,
03:25:05.740 --> 03:25:09.040
indicate to the legislature
that we're shortchanging
03:25:09.040 --> 03:25:11.933
or working around the
deadlines they've given us.
03:25:14.767 --> 03:25:16.725
(clears throat)
03:25:16.725 --> 03:25:21.223
Is it a way to
work in a near term?
03:25:22.410 --> 03:25:26.450
Again, it's all about the range of risk
03:25:26.450 --> 03:25:28.330
that we're building in, right?
03:25:28.330 --> 03:25:30.123
So 95th percentile,
03:25:31.169 --> 03:25:32.503
is that low?
03:25:34.710 --> 03:25:37.720
It's a low bar that we
hope that everyone
03:25:37.720 --> 03:25:39.460
will be able to cross.
03:25:39.460 --> 03:25:42.500
But is there a way to look at near term?
03:25:42.500 --> 03:25:45.960
And again, when do we expect
to have the study complete
03:25:45.960 --> 03:25:46.853
by ERCOT?
03:25:48.410 --> 03:25:52.700
So our last draft has
the study being completed
03:25:52.700 --> 03:25:54.253
by the end of January.
03:25:55.130 --> 03:25:59.890
And I have not had an
opportunity to check in with Chris
03:25:59.890 --> 03:26:02.310
this week to figure out
exactly what his timeline
03:26:02.310 --> 03:26:05.410
is for completing his data build out.
03:26:05.410 --> 03:26:07.030
It's by the skin of our teeth.
03:26:07.030 --> 03:26:08.060
Yes, sir.
03:26:08.060 --> 03:26:11.320
So Barksdale and I know
ERCOT has a lot on their plate,
03:26:11.320 --> 03:26:13.160
but can you shed a little bit of light
03:26:13.160 --> 03:26:16.733
on why it's taking months
to develop the weather study,
03:26:18.110 --> 03:26:19.210
several months?
03:26:19.210 --> 03:26:22.270
So it would probably
be better for ERCOT
03:26:22.270 --> 03:26:24.220
to answer that question.
03:26:24.220 --> 03:26:27.640
I can tell you just
from what we've heard
03:26:27.640 --> 03:26:30.430
is that it's been difficult.
03:26:30.430 --> 03:26:33.170
It's a tremendous amount of
data that they're working with.
03:26:33.170 --> 03:26:38.020
He's trying to build
out an hourly dataset
03:26:38.020 --> 03:26:39.653
for a hundred plus years,
03:26:41.340 --> 03:26:43.800
whereas some of the data
that you were seeing from John
03:26:43.800 --> 03:26:45.660
is kind of on an annual basis,
03:26:45.660 --> 03:26:49.800
but Chris is trying to
do is on an 8,760 data
03:26:49.800 --> 03:26:52.470
points per year basis,
03:26:52.470 --> 03:26:55.680
because that really gets us to this idea
03:26:55.680 --> 03:27:00.680
of what we would expect
from a generation operator
03:27:02.760 --> 03:27:05.530
is kind of on an hour-by-hour basis,
03:27:05.530 --> 03:27:08.723
not on a day-by-day basis
or a year-by-year basis.
03:27:09.680 --> 03:27:13.890
And so it's tens of
thousands of data points
03:27:13.890 --> 03:27:15.910
and he has to go and find the holes
03:27:15.910 --> 03:27:18.710
and figure out how to
supplement it and if it's quality,
03:27:18.710 --> 03:27:20.870
but, you know.
03:27:20.870 --> 03:27:22.310
So.
03:27:22.310 --> 03:27:23.143
Go ahead.
03:27:23.143 --> 03:27:24.009
Okay.
03:27:24.009 --> 03:27:28.810
So one observation that
a lot of stakeholders raised
03:27:28.810 --> 03:27:32.520
in the project was the
fact that it doesn't appear
03:27:32.520 --> 03:27:35.267
like they have a lot of
visibility into the weather study,
03:27:35.267 --> 03:27:39.060
and they're gonna be expected
to comply with standards
03:27:39.060 --> 03:27:41.790
that are based on the
weatherization study.
03:27:41.790 --> 03:27:46.790
Is there a way to at
least file in the project,
03:27:47.260 --> 03:27:50.233
like a scoping document
as to what's being looked at,
03:27:51.530 --> 03:27:55.660
and a draft study and a final study?
03:27:55.660 --> 03:27:58.383
I just feel like for
purposes of transparency,
03:27:59.410 --> 03:28:03.570
if ERCOT is conducting a very
robust weather forecast study,
03:28:03.570 --> 03:28:06.990
then we can at least
shed a little bit of light
03:28:06.990 --> 03:28:11.150
on a little bit more
information on the study
03:28:11.150 --> 03:28:12.483
as it's being finalized.
03:28:14.300 --> 03:28:15.563
Subject to check with ERCOT.
03:28:15.563 --> 03:28:18.030
I don't see any problem with providing
03:28:18.030 --> 03:28:19.530
either the final dataset
03:28:19.530 --> 03:28:22.100
or the parameters under which Chris
03:28:22.100 --> 03:28:23.600
is trying to collect the data.
03:28:25.890 --> 03:28:27.570
It seems reasonable to me.
03:28:27.570 --> 03:28:28.403
What about this?
03:28:28.403 --> 03:28:30.590
Something to consider for
all of us to sort of chew on.
03:28:30.590 --> 03:28:35.053
And Jimmy, with your
experience from recently,
03:28:36.750 --> 03:28:38.530
is there an industry best practice,
03:28:38.530 --> 03:28:43.430
we heard from Mr. Gates
that again Calpine
03:28:44.297 --> 03:28:46.240
was hardening to a 2011 standard,
03:28:46.240 --> 03:28:48.633
had been prior to the URI event.
03:28:50.010 --> 03:28:52.520
That was something
that Calpine Corporate
03:28:52.520 --> 03:28:55.350
had determined was the highest risk
03:28:55.350 --> 03:28:59.653
or a high risk event that
they were trying to mitigate.
03:29:00.580 --> 03:29:04.880
And so is there (clears
throat) a way to flag
03:29:04.880 --> 03:29:05.740
from stakeholders?
03:29:05.740 --> 03:29:09.640
What is a commonly
accepted metric as of right now
03:29:09.640 --> 03:29:14.020
that we can in shrine as
a near term benchmark
03:29:14.020 --> 03:29:17.420
that everyone can meet by December 31st,
03:29:17.420 --> 03:29:20.590
so that at least we
have a standard in place
03:29:20.590 --> 03:29:22.880
unless we're bringing up anyone
03:29:22.880 --> 03:29:25.530
who may be a laggard in this category,
03:29:25.530 --> 03:29:29.900
so that they, again,
going into February,
03:29:29.900 --> 03:29:31.320
the anniversary of the event,
03:29:31.320 --> 03:29:36.100
we at least have a bar that is set.
03:29:36.100 --> 03:29:40.420
And then subject to the
final weatherization study
03:29:40.420 --> 03:29:44.170
performed by ERCOT,
we can then reopen the rule
03:29:44.170 --> 03:29:47.390
and start doing our
technical refinements.
03:29:47.390 --> 03:29:50.500
Is that something that
might be achievable?
03:29:50.500 --> 03:29:55.110
Have fulfilled the statutory
deadline in broader strokes?
03:29:55.110 --> 03:29:55.943
That's right.
03:29:55.943 --> 03:29:58.560
Well, again, it's not
gonna be the perfect
03:29:58.560 --> 03:30:00.010
and we're gonna work toward the perfect,
03:30:00.010 --> 03:30:04.050
but it'll provide an
industry-wide ERCOT standard
03:30:04.050 --> 03:30:05.903
that we will bring everybody up to.
03:30:05.903 --> 03:30:07.193
That is achievable.
03:30:08.130 --> 03:30:09.163
It should be--
03:30:09.163 --> 03:30:11.147
Based on the most recent event.
03:30:11.147 --> 03:30:13.070
Not necessarily URI,
03:30:13.070 --> 03:30:15.490
because URI by all
accounts is an outlier,
03:30:15.490 --> 03:30:17.010
even by the state climatologists.
03:30:17.010 --> 03:30:19.760
But I'm talking about
is 2011 that standard,
03:30:19.760 --> 03:30:21.660
because I think what we found
03:30:21.660 --> 03:30:25.790
is that some may have been a laggard
03:30:25.790 --> 03:30:27.570
even by the 2011 standard,
03:30:27.570 --> 03:30:31.670
but let's put a stake in the
sand start, crawl, walk, run,
03:30:31.670 --> 03:30:33.920
bringing everybody up to that stake,
03:30:33.920 --> 03:30:38.620
and then once our final
refinements are processed,
03:30:38.620 --> 03:30:41.940
pending ERCOT study we reopened the rule
03:30:41.940 --> 03:30:44.833
and start moving in the
direction of the 95th percentile.
03:30:46.070 --> 03:30:47.170
Interesting concept.
03:30:48.620 --> 03:30:50.400
You might be able to merge something
03:30:50.400 --> 03:30:52.100
like that with the,
03:30:52.100 --> 03:30:55.210
I guess we can speed up the rulemaking
03:30:55.210 --> 03:30:56.510
or we slowe down the rulemaking
03:30:56.510 --> 03:30:58.623
or speed up the weather study, right?
03:31:00.230 --> 03:31:01.330
A couple of variables.
03:31:05.510 --> 03:31:08.430
Would it be possible if we're working
03:31:08.430 --> 03:31:12.460
with 8,700 data points per
year over a hundred years
03:31:14.200 --> 03:31:19.200
get you close to a 100,000
data points in a big database.
03:31:22.100 --> 03:31:24.754
I'm looking at
paying face right now.
03:31:24.754 --> 03:31:26.837
(laughs)
03:31:29.245 --> 03:31:30.815
Could you?
03:31:30.815 --> 03:31:32.240
No, go on.
03:31:32.240 --> 03:31:34.120
You mentioned
annual versus hourly.
03:31:34.120 --> 03:31:38.029
Could you start with the annual basis,
03:31:38.029 --> 03:31:40.580
broad strokes of the weather study,
03:31:40.580 --> 03:31:44.720
use that to make sure
we have robust rules
03:31:44.720 --> 03:31:46.953
part of the legislature's direction.
03:31:48.420 --> 03:31:49.530
We have the framework,
03:31:49.530 --> 03:31:50.620
we have the framework of the rules
03:31:50.620 --> 03:31:52.510
with a broad weather standard
03:31:53.360 --> 03:31:55.540
that can then be fine tuned
03:31:55.540 --> 03:32:00.263
as we get a more robust
weather study product.
03:32:02.180 --> 03:32:07.180
And with the notion being
we want the broad pieces,
03:32:09.800 --> 03:32:11.850
the broad philosophic
pieces to be in place,
03:32:11.850 --> 03:32:13.700
we want the framework to be in place,
03:32:14.995 --> 03:32:16.710
but we don't want the lack of data
03:32:18.880 --> 03:32:22.270
or the timeframe required to gather data
03:32:22.270 --> 03:32:24.570
to be the tail that wags the dog
03:32:24.570 --> 03:32:26.050
of the of the weather study
03:32:26.050 --> 03:32:27.803
that drives the weatherization.
03:32:29.351 --> 03:32:30.730
I think that kind of similar
03:32:30.730 --> 03:32:33.020
with what you're
talking about with the...
03:32:34.690 --> 03:32:35.523
Definitely.
03:32:35.523 --> 03:32:37.360
Fazed weather steady
approach (indistinct).
03:32:38.420 --> 03:32:41.580
So I need to step back
being the new guy here
03:32:41.580 --> 03:32:44.670
just about all of the data points.
03:32:44.670 --> 03:32:48.263
Is this gonna be on a per
generator basis or on a,
03:32:49.460 --> 03:32:52.290
I mean coz obviously we've
got lots of generators or...
03:32:52.290 --> 03:32:53.960
So tell me what that basis is?
03:32:53.960 --> 03:32:58.160
Obviously, if we're
getting data points for 8760,
03:32:58.160 --> 03:32:59.580
is it for each component,
03:32:59.580 --> 03:33:02.573
each generator or each
component of the system or?
03:33:03.880 --> 03:33:06.910
The data that Chris is
collecting is on an ERCOT
03:33:06.910 --> 03:33:08.530
weather zone basis.
03:33:08.530 --> 03:33:09.590
Weather zone basis.
03:33:09.590 --> 03:33:10.423
Okay.
03:33:10.423 --> 03:33:13.620
And so the standard
would be for the generator
03:33:13.620 --> 03:33:18.620
to prepare their assets to
operate in that weather zones,
03:33:19.630 --> 03:33:23.020
95th percentile range.
03:33:23.020 --> 03:33:25.790
And if that means that
there are various components
03:33:25.790 --> 03:33:29.560
that need more or less preparations,
03:33:29.560 --> 03:33:31.823
then that's up to
them to figure that out.
03:33:33.833 --> 03:33:37.000
And the weather zones
are determined how?
03:33:37.000 --> 03:33:41.980
They were originally set
by in the ERCOT protocols
03:33:41.980 --> 03:33:46.060
back when we introduced restructuring.
03:33:46.060 --> 03:33:46.893
Got it.
03:33:48.310 --> 03:33:51.570
So just to kind of put
some things out there,
03:33:51.570 --> 03:33:54.500
to think about and maybe
questions in the middle of that.
03:33:54.500 --> 03:33:58.080
So it sounds like
potentially a consideration
03:33:59.220 --> 03:34:00.960
of a phased approach to weatherization,
03:34:00.960 --> 03:34:05.760
the first phase being built on
a combination of information
03:34:05.760 --> 03:34:10.160
being provided to us per our
request from the generators,
03:34:10.160 --> 03:34:13.460
what they're doing to
prepare for winter 22,
03:34:13.460 --> 03:34:18.460
based on 21, maybe a
percentile that Will mentioned,
03:34:19.270 --> 03:34:23.810
something in there to add
even more of a baseline,
03:34:23.810 --> 03:34:26.840
perhaps some information
from the draft FERC,
03:34:30.160 --> 03:34:32.020
cold weather preparedness.
03:34:32.020 --> 03:34:34.770
So just kind of a
combination of having a good
03:34:34.770 --> 03:34:39.770
firm baseline there of to
create some phase one
03:34:41.960 --> 03:34:45.092
robust weatherization
standards allow ERCOT the time
03:34:45.092 --> 03:34:47.490
to finish their weatherization study
03:34:47.490 --> 03:34:49.720
and would that time
to allow them to finish
03:34:49.720 --> 03:34:51.280
that weatherization study,
03:34:51.280 --> 03:34:53.390
shed more light on the weather study
03:34:53.390 --> 03:34:55.043
so that the stakeholder
community can know
03:34:55.043 --> 03:34:56.543
it's being looked at.
03:34:58.290 --> 03:35:00.720
And maybe if we have enough time
03:35:00.720 --> 03:35:03.110
maybe they can provide suggestions
03:35:03.110 --> 03:35:05.810
on what other weather
resources should be looked at?
03:35:05.810 --> 03:35:07.090
We have a little bit of extra time.
03:35:07.090 --> 03:35:09.950
So that way it is a robust weather study
03:35:09.950 --> 03:35:14.830
that we later returned to
for phase two compliance
03:35:14.830 --> 03:35:19.830
or the phase two
standards that will build upon
03:35:19.840 --> 03:35:22.940
the phase one standards.
03:35:22.940 --> 03:35:25.370
And then we can use the information
03:35:25.370 --> 03:35:29.060
that the generators
provided us for our direction
03:35:29.060 --> 03:35:31.080
to maybe come up with weather standards
03:35:31.080 --> 03:35:36.080
that are more specifically
tied to generation units
03:35:36.130 --> 03:35:38.989
based on age, type, design,
03:35:38.989 --> 03:35:41.080
a little bit more fine tune,
03:35:41.080 --> 03:35:46.080
because I'm wondering if just
saying a compliance standard,
03:35:46.290 --> 03:35:49.740
if you have 600 megawatts
is gonna take into account
03:35:49.740 --> 03:35:52.943
all the unique characteristics
of a generation fleet.
03:35:53.850 --> 03:35:57.030
Maybe we can come up
with a little bit more of a,
03:35:57.030 --> 03:35:58.523
on the phase two standards,
03:35:59.440 --> 03:36:02.300
more robust weather standards
that are specifically tailored
03:36:02.300 --> 03:36:05.980
to certain types of like
old gas, steam units.
03:36:05.980 --> 03:36:09.489
New combined cycle
or newer wind turbines
03:36:09.489 --> 03:36:14.000
as opposed to tied to
overall amount of megawatts.
03:36:14.000 --> 03:36:18.488
Are you suggesting
the phase two regulations
03:36:18.488 --> 03:36:21.022
would include technical specifications
03:36:21.022 --> 03:36:23.200
for types of generators?
03:36:23.200 --> 03:36:24.530
Performance standards?
03:36:24.530 --> 03:36:29.370
They would be standards
that would be a little bit more
03:36:29.370 --> 03:36:31.600
delineated by category
as opposed to like,
03:36:31.600 --> 03:36:33.580
if you have 650 megawatts,
03:36:33.580 --> 03:36:36.930
then you must comply
with this by X date,
03:36:36.930 --> 03:36:38.753
it would be if you have an old steam,
03:36:38.753 --> 03:36:40.715
this is just something to consider.
03:36:40.715 --> 03:36:42.370
(chuckles)
03:36:42.370 --> 03:36:46.850
For instance, gas steam
units, old gas steam units,
03:36:46.850 --> 03:36:49.090
whatever timeline that is.
03:36:49.090 --> 03:36:50.040
These are some of the measures
03:36:50.040 --> 03:36:51.780
we got from the generators themselves
03:36:51.780 --> 03:36:53.650
as to how they're protecting them.
03:36:53.650 --> 03:36:54.940
Let's use that as a baseline,
03:36:54.940 --> 03:36:57.360
plus the weather study
and actual performance
03:36:57.360 --> 03:37:00.650
from the winter to see if
that is the right standard
03:37:00.650 --> 03:37:05.030
to have for phase two
more robust standards.
03:37:05.030 --> 03:37:07.663
So if I could respond
to that for just a moment,
03:37:08.630 --> 03:37:11.160
one of the reasons why we have chosen
03:37:11.160 --> 03:37:14.360
not to present different standards
03:37:14.360 --> 03:37:17.560
for different kinds of units is because,
03:37:17.560 --> 03:37:20.590
once that electron is
produced and has left the plant,
03:37:20.590 --> 03:37:24.400
it is equally valuable
to all of their electrons.
03:37:24.400 --> 03:37:26.800
So to the public,
03:37:26.800 --> 03:37:29.470
I understand that
there are different costs,
03:37:29.470 --> 03:37:33.930
different requirements
for the age of the plant,
03:37:33.930 --> 03:37:36.713
for the type of plant, for
the location of the plant,
03:37:37.860 --> 03:37:38.930
but at the end of the day,
03:37:38.930 --> 03:37:40.740
what the public cares
about is the electron
03:37:40.740 --> 03:37:42.120
that gets produced from it.
03:37:42.120 --> 03:37:42.953
Absolutely.
03:37:42.953 --> 03:37:44.980
But I will add that we've
heard a lot of concerns
03:37:44.980 --> 03:37:48.550
about old gas units being
rocked all summer long.
03:37:48.550 --> 03:37:50.470
And if they have the generation company
03:37:50.470 --> 03:37:52.670
has to spend more money on the units
03:37:52.670 --> 03:37:54.350
to bring them up to a standard
03:37:54.350 --> 03:37:57.120
that just fits in with all other units,
03:37:57.120 --> 03:38:00.290
there could be unintended consequences
03:38:00.290 --> 03:38:03.600
of not having electrons
on the grid from those units.
03:38:03.600 --> 03:38:05.820
And that's why
we were proposing
03:38:06.880 --> 03:38:09.740
maybe a little bit of a lower standard.
03:38:09.740 --> 03:38:12.330
If we wanted to cover
all events including URI,
03:38:12.330 --> 03:38:14.280
we would probably
have required everybody
03:38:14.280 --> 03:38:18.670
to go for that 99th percentile event.
03:38:18.670 --> 03:38:21.540
And so by setting that
just a little bit lower,
03:38:21.540 --> 03:38:24.390
we're trying to encourage folks
03:38:24.390 --> 03:38:27.110
to keep their assets in the market,
03:38:27.110 --> 03:38:30.370
but still if they're gonna
to be on the market,
03:38:30.370 --> 03:38:31.410
take steps to be able to make sure
03:38:31.410 --> 03:38:34.160
that that electron
gets out to the public.
03:38:34.160 --> 03:38:35.690
And I think you
also have to think of it,
03:38:35.690 --> 03:38:38.270
not just old units, but
the black start units.
03:38:38.270 --> 03:38:40.270
The black start units and prioritization
03:38:40.270 --> 03:38:43.820
of having to comply with the standards.
03:38:43.820 --> 03:38:45.300
I mean, I think there's
been a lot of discussion
03:38:45.300 --> 03:38:47.340
as to how they perform during the winter
03:38:47.340 --> 03:38:49.150
and when should they be in compliance,
03:38:49.150 --> 03:38:50.830
should they be first out of the gate
03:38:52.010 --> 03:38:55.910
in terms of compliance
and having their own set
03:38:55.910 --> 03:39:00.250
of perhaps standards to meet
as you have already done so,
03:39:00.250 --> 03:39:03.750
I think to some
degree in the percentile,
03:39:03.750 --> 03:39:06.447
but anyway, there just
some things to think about,
03:39:06.447 --> 03:39:07.873
because I think that, you know,
03:39:07.873 --> 03:39:12.873
I don't know that lumping over
650 megawatts into one bucket
03:39:13.650 --> 03:39:15.588
is going to address all the different
03:39:15.588 --> 03:39:17.590
sort of design elements
03:39:17.590 --> 03:39:21.490
and just really take into consideration
03:39:22.420 --> 03:39:27.040
the characteristics of the
types of plants we have,
03:39:27.040 --> 03:39:28.940
and the realities of weatherization
03:39:28.940 --> 03:39:30.500
for those types of plants.
03:39:30.500 --> 03:39:31.510
That's all I'm gonna (indistinct).
03:39:31.510 --> 03:39:35.170
Fair enough, and
that's a delicate balance
03:39:35.170 --> 03:39:36.510
that needs careful consideration
03:39:36.510 --> 03:39:39.780
between certainly wanting to make sure
03:39:39.780 --> 03:39:42.780
that assets currently
in the ERCOT market
03:39:42.780 --> 03:39:44.600
remain in the market.
03:39:44.600 --> 03:39:48.470
But making sure that
like Barksdale said,
03:39:48.470 --> 03:39:51.530
if those assets are
going to be in the market,
03:39:51.530 --> 03:39:54.470
we need some standard of reliability.
03:39:54.470 --> 03:39:57.963
And that's one of the
questions I've got of,
03:39:58.940 --> 03:40:02.380
you know, is there a
seasonality difference, right?
03:40:02.380 --> 03:40:04.140
Like if and I don't
know the answer to this,
03:40:04.140 --> 03:40:07.173
but if there's, you know,
03:40:08.700 --> 03:40:10.653
is there a different
universe of generators
03:40:10.653 --> 03:40:13.250
that we wanna rely on in the winter
03:40:13.250 --> 03:40:16.093
versus what might be
available in the summer?
03:40:21.620 --> 03:40:23.820
I mean, but again,
at the end of the day,
03:40:23.820 --> 03:40:27.663
that goes into market
design and reliability.
03:40:31.040 --> 03:40:34.130
We all know and it has been
very clear both from the public,
03:40:34.130 --> 03:40:35.320
the Governor and the legislature
03:40:35.320 --> 03:40:40.320
that we're liability is what
we are driving towards.
03:40:40.700 --> 03:40:43.280
And so do you at any point,
03:40:43.280 --> 03:40:48.280
do we want a unit in the marketplace
03:40:49.340 --> 03:40:52.310
that has uncertain levels of reliability
03:40:53.550 --> 03:40:55.500
even if you put it in
some sort of summer
03:40:55.500 --> 03:40:56.773
only classification.
03:40:57.610 --> 03:41:00.104
That's a careful, careful balance.
03:41:00.104 --> 03:41:03.138
I definitely agree with your
seasonality consideration.
03:41:03.138 --> 03:41:04.150
I think that obviously there's different
03:41:04.150 --> 03:41:06.150
weatherization standards there,
03:41:06.150 --> 03:41:07.800
that needed to be
taken into consideration.
03:41:07.800 --> 03:41:10.413
I think the two
drivers to tell it, right?
03:41:10.413 --> 03:41:12.010
But you do something on
one end, you could impact.
03:41:12.010 --> 03:41:13.630
So it's kind of all interrelated.
03:41:13.630 --> 03:41:15.340
It's just something to think about.
03:41:15.340 --> 03:41:16.353
Very good.
03:41:16.353 --> 03:41:17.920
Very good point.
03:41:17.920 --> 03:41:21.470
I was gonna say,
all of these plants
03:41:21.470 --> 03:41:23.653
are mechanical beasts,
03:41:24.530 --> 03:41:27.490
and a lot of times they have
things that go wrong with them.
03:41:27.490 --> 03:41:32.490
And I think some of it
has to do when they offer
03:41:32.540 --> 03:41:34.010
their energy into the market.
03:41:34.010 --> 03:41:38.830
You know, so most of
these plant managers
03:41:38.830 --> 03:41:43.270
get paid upon
availability of their unit.
03:41:43.270 --> 03:41:44.540
We want them available
03:41:44.540 --> 03:41:46.280
when they say they're
gonna be available.
03:41:46.280 --> 03:41:48.173
And that's kind of where in ERCOT,
03:41:49.020 --> 03:41:51.250
if you don't produce
03:41:51.250 --> 03:41:53.550
when you're an available
dispatchable plant,
03:41:53.550 --> 03:41:57.320
you know, is there a
consequence there or not?
03:41:57.320 --> 03:42:02.320
But I think the one question that I had,
03:42:03.520 --> 03:42:06.220
was to other states
have anything like this?
03:42:06.220 --> 03:42:07.860
Have you talked to folks at NARUC
03:42:07.860 --> 03:42:11.710
or any other states that
maybe there are different
03:42:11.710 --> 03:42:14.820
categories of weatherization rules?
03:42:14.820 --> 03:42:16.450
Have you looked at those?
03:42:16.450 --> 03:42:20.510
We have inquired
both with MISO and SPP
03:42:20.510 --> 03:42:23.090
and to the best of my memory,
03:42:23.090 --> 03:42:25.880
neither of them have
anything as specific
03:42:25.880 --> 03:42:27.866
as what we have proposed here.
03:42:27.866 --> 03:42:28.945
Right.
03:42:28.945 --> 03:42:31.080
They're all around the
planning requirements
03:42:31.080 --> 03:42:33.890
that currently exist in the NERC rules,
03:42:33.890 --> 03:42:36.120
as well as what will presumably
03:42:36.120 --> 03:42:39.360
become the newest standard
once FERC approves it.
03:42:39.360 --> 03:42:40.193
Right.
03:42:40.193 --> 03:42:43.673
But nothing in the market rules for,
03:42:44.870 --> 03:42:47.320
well, I guess by nature
of the market rules,
03:42:47.320 --> 03:42:49.100
there's definitely something in there.
03:42:49.100 --> 03:42:50.930
In terms of the market rules,
03:42:50.930 --> 03:42:52.050
it's gonna be very different
03:42:52.050 --> 03:42:56.060
because many of them
have capacity markets
03:42:56.060 --> 03:42:58.500
which pay generators to have their units
03:42:58.500 --> 03:43:00.210
available all year long.
03:43:00.210 --> 03:43:04.230
And so there's just a
fundamentally different
03:43:04.230 --> 03:43:08.210
financial incentive there.
03:43:08.210 --> 03:43:11.960
If I could just throw out
two quick things in response
03:43:11.960 --> 03:43:13.650
to some of the
conversation I just heard.
03:43:13.650 --> 03:43:15.650
First, one of the things
03:43:15.650 --> 03:43:20.210
that we're trying to be
mindful about is that,
03:43:20.210 --> 03:43:23.110
we've been told that
the bulk of the costs
03:43:23.110 --> 03:43:27.530
for preparing a plant or
transmission substation
03:43:27.530 --> 03:43:28.810
is really the labor.
03:43:28.810 --> 03:43:31.710
The actual materials
itself are negligible
03:43:31.710 --> 03:43:34.450
in terms of the cost
structure of this initiative.
03:43:34.450 --> 03:43:39.160
And so we've been
trying to think about a way
03:43:39.160 --> 03:43:42.370
to minimize the number
of times an operator
03:43:42.370 --> 03:43:46.343
has to go out and do
something different to their plant.
03:43:47.610 --> 03:43:49.869
That may not be possible,
03:43:49.869 --> 03:43:52.319
but it's a consideration
that we've been hearing.
03:43:53.461 --> 03:43:58.430
And it is something I wouldn't
say foremost in our mind,
03:43:58.430 --> 03:44:00.140
but it's up there,
03:44:00.140 --> 03:44:02.670
especially in terms
of early unit retirement.
03:44:02.670 --> 03:44:05.500
So trying to signal to the market
03:44:05.500 --> 03:44:09.540
where we're going with enough clarity,
03:44:09.540 --> 03:44:12.390
so that for those enterprising operators
03:44:12.390 --> 03:44:14.970
who are already doing things today,
03:44:14.970 --> 03:44:18.020
they can anticipate where
we're going to be tomorrow.
03:44:18.020 --> 03:44:23.020
So that's a great outcome for everybody.
03:44:23.460 --> 03:44:25.460
If we have to do this in multiple steps,
03:44:25.460 --> 03:44:29.090
just because of the nature
of the complexity of everything
03:44:29.090 --> 03:44:30.780
that we're trying to do.
03:44:30.780 --> 03:44:35.083
So be it, and we'll tackle
that challenge as we need to.
03:44:36.410 --> 03:44:39.250
I liked your idea that if
you had said it this way,
03:44:39.250 --> 03:44:41.786
but this is kind of the
way I characterize it is,
03:44:41.786 --> 03:44:46.786
so looking at ERCOT black
start plan across the state,
03:44:47.940 --> 03:44:50.840
I don't know if it's divided
up regionally or whatever,
03:44:50.840 --> 03:44:55.840
but maybe like we're
looking at that reverse,
03:44:55.980 --> 03:44:58.840
or the first plant that
they need to get up
03:44:58.840 --> 03:45:01.093
and running may need
the highest standard.
03:45:02.560 --> 03:45:07.560
So and a lot of that is
kind of within the plan,
03:45:07.670 --> 03:45:11.200
but as you get down the curve of plants
03:45:12.200 --> 03:45:14.310
and you have fewer
and fewer plants left,
03:45:14.310 --> 03:45:18.170
you want them to be there
when all the others are gone.
03:45:18.170 --> 03:45:21.000
And I don't know, just a thought,
03:45:21.000 --> 03:45:23.670
you know if maybe
blacks the black start plan
03:45:25.154 --> 03:45:27.800
is a data point to look at those plants
03:45:27.800 --> 03:45:30.750
that are most important to the state
03:45:30.750 --> 03:45:33.103
to bring up grid backup that failed.
03:45:34.170 --> 03:45:37.220
That's exactly what
motivated our decision
03:45:37.220 --> 03:45:40.610
to require those units
that have contracted
03:45:40.610 --> 03:45:44.710
for providing black start
service to be the most prepared.
03:45:44.710 --> 03:45:45.750
That's great.
03:45:45.750 --> 03:45:50.750
What is the current
requirement for contracted
03:45:51.400 --> 03:45:53.660
black start units today?
03:45:53.660 --> 03:45:55.190
For weather preparation?
03:45:55.190 --> 03:45:56.370
Yes.
03:45:56.370 --> 03:45:59.030
To the best of my
knowledge, there is none.
03:45:59.030 --> 03:46:01.589
There's I gotta have
thumbs up from Woody's.
03:46:01.589 --> 03:46:03.672
(laughs)
03:46:04.922 --> 03:46:07.500
So this actually kind of
leads into my second point,
03:46:07.500 --> 03:46:10.570
is that Commissioner McAdams
I've heard you reference
03:46:10.570 --> 03:46:13.640
a couple of times that
the 2011 standards.
03:46:13.640 --> 03:46:16.610
And I understand your
point to mean, you know,
03:46:16.610 --> 03:46:18.850
what was your experience
generation operator
03:46:18.850 --> 03:46:22.480
during 2011 and go and
resolve those problems
03:46:23.570 --> 03:46:25.820
to use the word standard.
03:46:25.820 --> 03:46:28.310
I just wanna make sure
that it's clear to the public,
03:46:28.310 --> 03:46:30.230
that we have no standards.
03:46:30.230 --> 03:46:35.230
We have no regulations based
on 2011, 1989, 1983, 1895.
03:46:37.300 --> 03:46:42.300
There is no minimum regulation
that either the legislature
03:46:42.460 --> 03:46:45.540
or the state have
imposed on the industry.
03:46:45.540 --> 03:46:46.650
In place today.
03:46:46.650 --> 03:46:47.700
In place today.
Yeah, no, that's right.
03:46:47.700 --> 03:46:49.810
Anything in the public interest
03:46:49.810 --> 03:46:51.800
is going to be a positive development,
03:46:51.800 --> 03:46:54.150
because at least that
establishes that benchmark
03:46:54.150 --> 03:46:55.210
that we grow from,
03:46:55.210 --> 03:46:59.490
and that you refine your
95th percentile forward from.
03:46:59.490 --> 03:47:02.340
But what I was saying
is you started off slow,
03:47:02.340 --> 03:47:04.690
you don't bring everybody
up to altitude fast,
03:47:04.690 --> 03:47:06.600
otherwise you're going to
have some people pass out
03:47:06.600 --> 03:47:07.905
or retire.
03:47:07.905 --> 03:47:08.738
(laughs)
03:47:08.738 --> 03:47:13.060
And so again, if we can't
get the most accurate picture
03:47:14.300 --> 03:47:17.100
on weather data until January,
03:47:17.100 --> 03:47:20.610
if we find some, anything, you know,
03:47:20.610 --> 03:47:23.730
and just establish the benchmark
03:47:25.100 --> 03:47:28.560
and then make sure everybody
goes through their facilities
03:47:28.560 --> 03:47:31.160
and a test we got this,
03:47:31.160 --> 03:47:33.380
it's gonna be better than
what we faced in URI.
03:47:33.380 --> 03:47:37.370
And that sort of reinforces
public confidence in the system.
03:47:37.370 --> 03:47:38.801
A hundred percent
agree with you, sir.
03:47:38.801 --> 03:47:41.080
And there's two things
to note as a supplement
03:47:41.080 --> 03:47:43.483
to Commissioner McAdam's point.
03:47:44.860 --> 03:47:48.390
When our ERCOT goes
to inspect before the winter,
03:47:48.390 --> 03:47:51.920
they'll have that
direction for phase one,
03:47:51.920 --> 03:47:56.920
which will help them
do a more targeted focus
03:47:57.500 --> 03:47:59.440
on what they need to be looking for.
03:47:59.440 --> 03:48:01.990
So they have their plan.
03:48:01.990 --> 03:48:06.030
And then also phase one is
going to have enforcement tie
03:48:06.030 --> 03:48:06.863
to it too.
03:48:06.863 --> 03:48:07.696
So.
03:48:07.696 --> 03:48:08.560
Yes.
03:48:08.560 --> 03:48:10.990
Commissioner Cobos is exactly right.
03:48:10.990 --> 03:48:12.010
In my opinion.
03:48:12.010 --> 03:48:12.843
Yeah.
03:48:12.843 --> 03:48:16.650
So you would suggest
getting the NERC standards
03:48:16.650 --> 03:48:20.900
established after or I guess
depending on which version,
03:48:20.900 --> 03:48:25.900
if you look at the timeline
from the presentation earlier.
03:48:30.210 --> 03:48:32.610
The latest greatest version
is in process right now
03:48:32.610 --> 03:48:34.540
waiting for approval.
03:48:34.540 --> 03:48:39.360
So the staggered approach
would be something along the lines
03:48:39.360 --> 03:48:44.360
of just copy and paste
those for the first phase.
03:48:47.940 --> 03:48:52.940
That's now the standard
required for implementation
03:48:53.720 --> 03:48:55.550
by which point.
03:48:55.550 --> 03:48:57.100
I would ask Barksdale,
03:48:57.100 --> 03:48:59.500
is that somewhat of an apples to apples?
03:48:59.500 --> 03:49:02.800
I mean, we kind of get
this in the same universe
03:49:02.800 --> 03:49:03.633
of metrics here.
03:49:03.633 --> 03:49:04.466
So what do you think?
03:49:04.466 --> 03:49:06.760
If I could provide
my advice here,
03:49:06.760 --> 03:49:09.240
it would be to take
just a half step forward
03:49:09.240 --> 03:49:13.250
from what has been proposed to FERC,
03:49:13.250 --> 03:49:15.087
which is a planning standard
03:49:15.087 --> 03:49:17.490
and it's important and
it needs to be done.
03:49:17.490 --> 03:49:18.810
Yeah.
03:49:18.810 --> 03:49:21.170
But I would recommend
that we take a half step forward
03:49:21.170 --> 03:49:24.343
in terms of preparations
based on those plants.
03:49:25.540 --> 03:49:26.373
And...
03:49:27.280 --> 03:49:29.510
That plants should
for the generators?
03:49:29.510 --> 03:49:30.343
Excuse me, ma'am.
03:49:30.343 --> 03:49:32.130
So the information we
get from the generators,
03:49:32.130 --> 03:49:35.240
let's just say the Commission request
03:49:35.240 --> 03:49:40.240
that the generators
provide us their plants
03:49:41.290 --> 03:49:42.823
to be ready for the winter.
03:49:45.030 --> 03:49:46.863
We take that information,
03:49:47.950 --> 03:49:50.060
take some of the
information from the FERC,
03:49:50.060 --> 03:49:52.033
NERC draft standards,
03:49:54.010 --> 03:49:59.010
and then use that and maybe a percentile
03:49:59.578 --> 03:50:04.578
that will suggested and
use that as a combined
03:50:05.400 --> 03:50:08.840
set of information to set
that phase one standard.
03:50:08.840 --> 03:50:13.830
I could imagine stealing from
the NERC proposed standard,
03:50:13.830 --> 03:50:17.470
this concept of critical
cold weather component,
03:50:17.470 --> 03:50:18.850
cold weather critical component,
03:50:18.850 --> 03:50:22.083
I think is how it's written.
03:50:23.530 --> 03:50:28.530
And saying, identify those
that failed in 2021 and in 2011,
03:50:30.470 --> 03:50:34.903
make a plan to fix those
and execute that plan.
03:50:35.760 --> 03:50:37.700
So actually prepare your facility.
03:50:37.700 --> 03:50:40.310
Don't just tell me that
you've identified the problem,
03:50:40.310 --> 03:50:44.180
but do something
about it by a date certain
03:50:46.020 --> 03:50:48.460
going into this winter.
03:50:48.460 --> 03:50:50.720
So I'm not completely versed
03:50:50.720 --> 03:50:52.390
with what's in those draft standards,
03:50:52.390 --> 03:50:54.660
but I would suspect that
maybe you can cherry pick
03:50:54.660 --> 03:50:55.850
some elements of it.
03:50:55.850 --> 03:50:57.950
And also it's based on
the 2018 event, right?
03:50:57.950 --> 03:50:59.080
In the south central region.
03:50:59.080 --> 03:51:00.820
So there's that piece.
03:51:00.820 --> 03:51:02.170
You can cherry pick pieces
03:51:02.170 --> 03:51:05.830
that would be good to
carry forward for phase one,
03:51:05.830 --> 03:51:07.530
you know, standard implementation.
03:51:08.650 --> 03:51:11.330
But I would say we would wanna know
03:51:11.330 --> 03:51:14.003
what they're planning to
do based on 2021 not 2011.
03:51:15.420 --> 03:51:17.383
I agree with you that
we would like to know
03:51:17.383 --> 03:51:18.497
what they're doing based on 2021.
03:51:18.497 --> 03:51:22.680
I would like to also add 2011,
03:51:22.680 --> 03:51:26.193
because of it's at your direction,
03:51:28.030 --> 03:51:31.100
but I think having the
generator think about
03:51:31.100 --> 03:51:33.350
both of those events
because they were recent
03:51:34.480 --> 03:51:39.393
and presented different
opportunities for improvement,
03:51:40.670 --> 03:51:42.930
maybe we can learn from both of them.
03:51:42.930 --> 03:51:45.480
What about the
next extreme event?
03:51:45.480 --> 03:51:48.620
I mean, I almost think
that we need to think
03:51:48.620 --> 03:51:50.180
at some point in time holistically
03:51:50.180 --> 03:51:52.440
that is there an event
that's gonna be worse
03:51:52.440 --> 03:51:54.403
than what happened in February,
03:51:55.890 --> 03:51:58.853
at least in terms of
temperature or ice or whatever.
03:52:00.461 --> 03:52:01.456
And we have a,
03:52:01.456 --> 03:52:06.456
NERC included does a great
job of doing things just in time.
03:52:07.670 --> 03:52:09.780
We do it just to solve that problem
03:52:09.780 --> 03:52:11.560
that just happened yesterday,
03:52:11.560 --> 03:52:14.500
but they didn't say, well,
what's gonna happen tomorrow?
03:52:14.500 --> 03:52:17.360
And you know I know NERC
standards, not all of them,
03:52:17.360 --> 03:52:21.693
but a lot of them are
about having a plan.
03:52:24.510 --> 03:52:26.382
It's not prescriptive.
03:52:26.382 --> 03:52:27.289
That's right.
03:52:27.289 --> 03:52:30.393
The NERC that's up to
the operator or the owner,
03:52:32.010 --> 03:52:35.010
but and I don't think that's
what the legislature wanted.
03:52:35.010 --> 03:52:37.920
They want us to have
something that's prescriptive.
03:52:37.920 --> 03:52:42.350
That's like, you guys have
to do X, Y, and Z by this time.
03:52:42.350 --> 03:52:45.120
So I'd like to speak
to a little bit of that.
03:52:45.120 --> 03:52:47.793
And I think we all watched
it and it was informative.
03:52:48.830 --> 03:52:52.900
The legislature found
fault in that 2011 happened,
03:52:52.900 --> 03:52:56.010
there were reports written and
nobody went out and checked.
03:52:56.010 --> 03:52:59.288
And so there was never
that benchmark put down
03:52:59.288 --> 03:53:02.240
that people were held to account to.
03:53:02.240 --> 03:53:03.640
And there was a lot of discussion,
03:53:03.640 --> 03:53:08.320
a lot of legislative intent
read in on that topic.
03:53:08.320 --> 03:53:13.270
And so anything we do if 2011 is that,
03:53:13.270 --> 03:53:14.730
we will have already moved past
03:53:14.730 --> 03:53:19.550
where this Commission was
in 2011 or 2012 post that event.
03:53:19.550 --> 03:53:21.410
So if we establish any type of metric
03:53:21.410 --> 03:53:24.040
that takes that into
account and they attest to it,
03:53:24.040 --> 03:53:26.400
and then we hold them to
account this year coming,
03:53:26.400 --> 03:53:29.130
or this next year coming
in January and February,
03:53:29.130 --> 03:53:30.950
we will have established,
03:53:30.950 --> 03:53:33.723
we will have moved forward
on the legislature's intent.
03:53:35.320 --> 03:53:40.320
And operationally, I'm gonna
offer this as a suggestion,
03:53:43.590 --> 03:53:48.590
but I suspect that if
the cascading effect
03:53:50.220 --> 03:53:55.220
that we saw in February
would have been minimized
03:53:56.760 --> 03:54:01.740
or certainly less dramatic if the first,
03:54:01.740 --> 03:54:06.470
second and third units that
tripped had higher standards
03:54:06.470 --> 03:54:10.860
or that if they could,
if not all of the first
03:54:10.860 --> 03:54:12.960
like say 10 units tripped and it's only.
03:54:13.830 --> 03:54:16.580
Well, yeah, or only
four of them tripped,
03:54:16.580 --> 03:54:18.260
instead of all 10,
03:54:18.260 --> 03:54:22.580
the cascading effect
would have been less severe
03:54:23.970 --> 03:54:27.260
to the point being even if you said,
03:54:27.260 --> 03:54:29.140
crawl, walk, run.
03:54:29.140 --> 03:54:32.760
Even if we'd gotten
to the crawling stage
03:54:32.760 --> 03:54:37.050
that could have mitigated
a lot of the cascading.
03:54:37.050 --> 03:54:38.750
It wouldn't have been perfect,
03:54:38.750 --> 03:54:39.990
but it could have...
03:54:39.990 --> 03:54:41.700
We've even rolling out or just.
03:54:44.450 --> 03:54:47.864
Hard to predict in
retrospect, impossible.
03:54:47.864 --> 03:54:50.200
You know, and it's
hard for those plants,
03:54:50.200 --> 03:54:51.390
the operators of those plants,
03:54:51.390 --> 03:54:54.010
because some of the
problems were not their problems
03:54:54.010 --> 03:54:55.320
within their plant.
03:54:55.320 --> 03:54:57.750
If they were a fuel problem
or they were a water problem
03:54:57.750 --> 03:54:59.290
or something else something
03:54:59.290 --> 03:55:01.843
or I know that a few
substations tripped,
03:55:04.370 --> 03:55:09.370
they still may have met the
burden of their responsibility
03:55:10.070 --> 03:55:12.437
yet their plant is still not
available to the people ERCOT.
03:55:12.437 --> 03:55:14.220
Well, and to your point, look,
03:55:14.220 --> 03:55:16.700
it was a confluence
of events that created
03:55:16.700 --> 03:55:19.250
a cascading failure in the system.
03:55:19.250 --> 03:55:21.480
And it was like four different events
03:55:21.480 --> 03:55:23.470
that were going on concurrently.
03:55:23.470 --> 03:55:25.690
All we gotta do is break up the cycle,
03:55:25.690 --> 03:55:27.270
the chain of events on one of those.
03:55:27.270 --> 03:55:29.550
And we stand a good shot
of ensuring the reliability
03:55:29.550 --> 03:55:30.383
of the system.
03:55:30.383 --> 03:55:32.720
And that's kind of to our point setting
03:55:34.000 --> 03:55:36.130
that benchmark now even low,
03:55:36.130 --> 03:55:38.100
so everybody can start coming up to it,
03:55:38.100 --> 03:55:40.080
and then enhance it and move forward.
03:55:40.080 --> 03:55:43.750
And I will add in
I think to spin off
03:55:43.750 --> 03:55:45.190
of what Commissioner McAdams is saying
03:55:45.190 --> 03:55:47.330
and go back to your
market design concept
03:55:47.330 --> 03:55:49.556
and to kind of address
your point, Jimmy,
03:55:49.556 --> 03:55:51.130
(indistinct).
03:55:51.130 --> 03:55:56.130
Basically, yes, we can weatherize,
03:55:56.150 --> 03:55:57.770
there can be gas supply issues,
03:55:57.770 --> 03:56:02.620
but through our market design efforts
03:56:02.620 --> 03:56:06.270
that we're gonna be tackling this month,
03:56:06.270 --> 03:56:07.953
there are ancillary services
03:56:07.953 --> 03:56:10.550
that we're gonna have to
put in place per SB three,
03:56:10.550 --> 03:56:13.700
that for on-site fuel
storage and mechanisms
03:56:13.700 --> 03:56:17.010
that do feel capability that
will hopefully help mitigate
03:56:17.010 --> 03:56:20.930
those issues going forward
from a market design standpoint.
03:56:20.930 --> 03:56:22.293
So hopefully.
03:56:23.936 --> 03:56:28.823
So I will also just highlight
that the NERC standards,
03:56:31.030 --> 03:56:33.640
the NERC process timeline we saw earlier
03:56:33.640 --> 03:56:38.640
includes from the time FARC
approves the proposed standards
03:56:41.060 --> 03:56:43.510
an 18 month implementation timeline.
03:56:43.510 --> 03:56:44.420
You're right.
03:56:44.420 --> 03:56:47.670
So we also need
to think about them.
03:56:47.670 --> 03:56:51.540
To think about what
that means is really
03:56:51.540 --> 03:56:54.163
that a generator owner is probably
03:56:54.163 --> 03:56:55.923
gonna have to have a plan.
03:56:57.300 --> 03:56:58.180
Within 18 months.
03:56:58.180 --> 03:56:59.700
Within 18 months.
03:56:59.700 --> 03:57:03.550
That's still not physically
enhancing the resilience?
03:57:03.550 --> 03:57:04.383
Correct.
03:57:04.383 --> 03:57:07.590
So the way those standards are written,
03:57:07.590 --> 03:57:10.160
but maybe if they get integrated
03:57:10.160 --> 03:57:11.130
into the planning standards,
03:57:11.130 --> 03:57:12.580
they might get there quicker.
03:57:13.750 --> 03:57:15.840
I mean, I haven't seen
the NERC rules yet,
03:57:15.840 --> 03:57:18.913
so I'll look at those
and... TBD.
03:57:18.913 --> 03:57:20.160
Yeah.
03:57:20.160 --> 03:57:25.160
So let me ask it's if what
I'm hearing is a phase one
03:57:28.100 --> 03:57:31.800
broad strokes, crawl walk run
03:57:31.800 --> 03:57:34.420
would be for simplicity of discussion,
03:57:34.420 --> 03:57:37.240
just say, adopting the 2011 planning
03:57:37.240 --> 03:57:41.930
and preparedness with
enforcement on the back end,
03:57:41.930 --> 03:57:43.980
inspection enforcement on the back end.
03:57:43.980 --> 03:57:46.891
Do that in some timeframe
03:57:46.891 --> 03:57:51.690
so that changes could
be made on Texas assets
03:57:51.690 --> 03:57:53.970
by December 1st of this year.
03:57:53.970 --> 03:57:55.827
Is that... <v
->First or 31st?
03:57:55.827 --> 03:57:56.660
First.
03:57:56.660 --> 03:57:58.000
Oh okay!
03:57:58.000 --> 03:58:01.743
So I think that what y'all
are triangulating around or?
03:58:02.580 --> 03:58:03.890
I would add in there,
03:58:03.890 --> 03:58:06.450
the piece that I think
you've alluded to Will,
03:58:06.450 --> 03:58:08.993
and I think you have to determine like,
03:58:09.880 --> 03:58:13.196
so the piece about
the companies telling us
03:58:13.196 --> 03:58:14.570
what they're planning to do,
03:58:14.570 --> 03:58:18.978
and fall into attestation to it as well.
03:58:18.978 --> 03:58:19.811
Sure.
03:58:19.811 --> 03:58:22.010
But just for simplicity of discussions,
03:58:22.010 --> 03:58:26.960
I copy and paste 2011
standards for implementation
03:58:26.960 --> 03:58:30.723
by December 1st, 2021 as the phase one.
03:58:31.640 --> 03:58:33.860
It seems to be the basic version
03:58:33.860 --> 03:58:37.360
of what we're talking
about here is that fair.
03:58:37.360 --> 03:58:39.513
It just as a discussion topic.
03:58:40.457 --> 03:58:41.290
Thank you.
03:58:41.290 --> 03:58:45.260
Can you from the staff
that's been in the weeds
03:58:45.260 --> 03:58:46.650
on this for months,
03:58:46.650 --> 03:58:49.160
can you give us just lay
out some pros and cons
03:58:49.160 --> 03:58:50.810
of that approach?
03:58:50.810 --> 03:58:53.090
One that I can think of
would be the very good point
03:58:53.090 --> 03:58:56.340
Lori brought up earlier
is a lot of generators
03:58:57.180 --> 03:58:59.820
could look at that
additional cost and say,
03:58:59.820 --> 03:59:01.410
we're gonna retire this asset
03:59:01.410 --> 03:59:04.759
rather than go through the first
03:59:04.759 --> 03:59:07.660
of what will probably
multiple workforce hirings,
03:59:07.660 --> 03:59:08.980
et cetera, et cetera.
03:59:08.980 --> 03:59:12.340
But could you just go through
quick reaction pros and cons
03:59:12.340 --> 03:59:16.380
on that theoretical or
hypothetical game plan?
03:59:16.380 --> 03:59:20.017
So I think in terms of the preparations
03:59:20.017 --> 03:59:22.600
and the actual things
that the generators
03:59:22.600 --> 03:59:23.650
would be required to do,
03:59:23.650 --> 03:59:25.250
I think there are a lot of pros.
03:59:26.480 --> 03:59:30.290
I think the risks
foremost is as you know,
03:59:30.290 --> 03:59:33.130
early unit retirement
as you've mentioned.
03:59:33.130 --> 03:59:37.780
Another risk is thinking
about what does an inspection
03:59:37.780 --> 03:59:39.350
schedule look like?
03:59:39.350 --> 03:59:41.513
We're now at August 12th,
03:59:42.900 --> 03:59:47.120
this rule if we strip it down
03:59:47.120 --> 03:59:50.120
to just what you've laid out, Chairman,
03:59:50.120 --> 03:59:51.750
maybe we could move more quickly
03:59:51.750 --> 03:59:54.780
in terms of getting it adopted,
03:59:54.780 --> 03:59:58.360
but then we're talking
about maybe 10 weeks,
03:59:58.360 --> 04:00:00.067
eight weeks from (indistinct).
04:00:00.067 --> 04:00:02.170
For physical
implementation.
04:00:02.170 --> 04:00:03.139
So.
04:00:03.139 --> 04:00:04.019
Not just plants.
04:00:04.019 --> 04:00:04.852
I, you know--
04:00:04.852 --> 04:00:06.677
Does that mean
not have already started.
04:00:07.556 --> 04:00:08.389
(indistinct)
04:00:08.389 --> 04:00:10.776
We have good
evidence that they haven't.
04:00:10.776 --> 04:00:11.922
Anecdotally--
04:00:11.922 --> 04:00:12.755
(indistinct)
04:00:12.755 --> 04:00:14.036
Yeah.
04:00:14.036 --> 04:00:16.520
Sorry, I didn't
mean to talk over you.
04:00:16.520 --> 04:00:19.215
I think anecdotally,
I've heard similar things
04:00:19.215 --> 04:00:22.730
that folks have already
taken a lot of those steps
04:00:22.730 --> 04:00:23.763
themselves.
04:00:25.169 --> 04:00:28.311
And maybe it's helping bring up
04:00:28.311 --> 04:00:31.113
kind of the trailing end of the fleet.
04:00:32.710 --> 04:00:34.620
So I think we would just
wanna be thoughtful about
04:00:34.620 --> 04:00:35.940
what does inspection mean?
04:00:35.940 --> 04:00:40.050
And how do we do
something that's meaningful
04:00:40.050 --> 04:00:45.050
to ensure compliance and
targeted so that it's feasible?
04:00:47.610 --> 04:00:49.067
Right.
04:00:49.067 --> 04:00:49.900
And more?
04:00:52.260 --> 04:00:53.960
You have some pros and cons Woody?
04:00:54.837 --> 04:00:56.270
(laughs)
04:00:56.270 --> 04:00:58.370
Have you tried to
mics over there for you.
04:01:00.940 --> 04:01:02.480
If you have thoughts, please share.
04:01:02.480 --> 04:01:07.480
We'd rather rather
learn the pros and cons.
04:01:07.650 --> 04:01:09.270
We'll learn the cons sooner or later,
04:01:09.270 --> 04:01:11.983
we'd rather hear him hear them sooner.
04:01:17.720 --> 04:01:19.860
Well, one thing to keep in mind
04:01:21.670 --> 04:01:23.910
when you talk about
checking the weatherization,
04:01:23.910 --> 04:01:27.770
I mean, our plant is not
weatherized in August
04:01:27.770 --> 04:01:31.087
for January operations.
04:01:31.087 --> 04:01:36.087
And so that weatherization
actual putting up the tarps
04:01:36.210 --> 04:01:37.923
or putting the heat tracing
on and that kinda thing,
04:01:37.923 --> 04:01:41.040
none of that stuff takes
place at a window of time
04:01:41.040 --> 04:01:45.830
before winter occurs,
winter weather occurs.
04:01:45.830 --> 04:01:47.810
And so there's a limited window to check
04:01:47.810 --> 04:01:49.250
that weatherization.
04:01:49.250 --> 04:01:50.573
So if you're checking,
04:01:52.888 --> 04:01:54.810
they give you a plan and say,
04:01:54.810 --> 04:01:58.100
this is what we were gonna
do to weatherize our plant.
04:01:58.100 --> 04:02:01.503
We can't check that
plan until it's been done.
04:02:02.970 --> 04:02:05.530
And so you've got this
November, December,
04:02:05.530 --> 04:02:08.520
very short window of
time to actually go out
04:02:08.520 --> 04:02:12.153
and do those jugs for a
large number of plants.
04:02:13.786 --> 04:02:17.720
That has to be factored
into this whole thing as well.
04:02:18.625 --> 04:02:22.850
Do you think something
like an attestation would work
04:02:22.850 --> 04:02:25.563
than either... I don't know who,
04:02:25.563 --> 04:02:26.730
but I don't know if it's a plant manager
04:02:26.730 --> 04:02:29.090
or somebody within the company attest
04:02:29.090 --> 04:02:34.090
that they have
completed their plan to us.
04:02:35.170 --> 04:02:37.410
It's not inspection, I get that.
04:02:37.410 --> 04:02:42.410
But it may not meet the
level that we want ultimately,
04:02:45.140 --> 04:02:48.973
but getting them to attest
similar to a NERC standard,
04:02:50.230 --> 04:02:54.560
you think that would
be serve as a component
04:02:54.560 --> 04:02:58.400
that we or data point that
would give you all information,
04:02:58.400 --> 04:03:00.180
us information that
they're actually doing
04:03:00.180 --> 04:03:01.730
what they say they're gonna do?
04:03:03.040 --> 04:03:04.034
I think you're good.
04:03:04.034 --> 04:03:04.867
Yes.
04:03:04.867 --> 04:03:06.840
Well, it'd be a bit of both.
04:03:06.840 --> 04:03:08.680
I mean, it's a manpower issue.
04:03:08.680 --> 04:03:11.150
You're gonna be standing
up your inspection system
04:03:11.150 --> 04:03:13.451
over the next six months anyway,
04:03:13.451 --> 04:03:17.640
we're talking about ERCOT
structure and funding right now
04:03:17.640 --> 04:03:20.190
in the coming months where
you're gonna be either doing
04:03:20.190 --> 04:03:23.010
this internal or through
an external contractor,
04:03:23.010 --> 04:03:25.580
but you're gonna be
prioritizing inspections depending
04:03:25.580 --> 04:03:27.180
on your view of system needs.
04:03:27.180 --> 04:03:30.220
So you're already gonna
start a cycle of inspections
04:03:30.220 --> 04:03:33.810
and then that combined
with an attestation safeguard
04:03:33.810 --> 04:03:36.200
provides us a mechanism
for accountability.
04:03:36.200 --> 04:03:37.587
And if everybody's not there in February
04:03:37.587 --> 04:03:39.040
and we have a close shave,
04:03:39.040 --> 04:03:41.410
and there's gonna be accountability,
04:03:41.410 --> 04:03:44.263
and that's not a
negative thing, that's life.
04:03:45.510 --> 04:03:48.790
I mean, does that work
that level of redundancy?
04:03:48.790 --> 04:03:49.623
I think so.
04:03:49.623 --> 04:03:53.030
I mean, what our plans
were for this winter
04:03:53.030 --> 04:03:57.880
was something we were going
to do this called spot checks
04:03:57.880 --> 04:04:01.470
or not because of the
spot checks for any plant
04:04:01.470 --> 04:04:04.248
that had problems
last winter during URI.
04:04:04.248 --> 04:04:08.100
That was the bull we're
gearing up for this winter
04:04:08.100 --> 04:04:09.727
is to do that kind of spot check again.
04:04:09.727 --> 04:04:12.200
And so it would be the
same kind of process.
04:04:12.200 --> 04:04:14.290
They would say, here's our plan.
04:04:14.290 --> 04:04:17.600
Here's what we're planning
on doing to weatherize our plant.
04:04:17.600 --> 04:04:20.120
And we would go out and verify
04:04:20.120 --> 04:04:21.620
they had completed their plan.
04:04:22.810 --> 04:04:26.220
And there may be a
hundred things in the plan,
04:04:26.220 --> 04:04:27.810
or there may be five things in the plan.
04:04:27.810 --> 04:04:31.060
We'll check whether it's
five or a hundred, I mean,
04:04:31.060 --> 04:04:35.293
without a standard, then
you're checking the plan,
04:04:35.293 --> 04:04:36.126
Right.
04:04:37.066 --> 04:04:39.420
This might be a broader
philosophical question,
04:04:39.420 --> 04:04:42.800
but how do we ensure
that the plan proposed
04:04:42.800 --> 04:04:47.800
to meet the 90th and
95th, 98% probability?
04:04:49.090 --> 04:04:53.135
How do we confirm
that that is in fact a valid
04:04:53.135 --> 04:04:56.810
and effective plan for
that asset in that location?
04:04:56.810 --> 04:04:58.970
That's a question for both of you.
04:04:58.970 --> 04:05:03.970
Well, the draft rule thinks
about having an engineer analyze
04:05:06.360 --> 04:05:10.890
both the plant design and
the plan that is presented
04:05:10.890 --> 04:05:13.080
to prepare that plant.
04:05:13.080 --> 04:05:16.220
And based on the design criteria,
04:05:16.220 --> 04:05:18.060
provide some level of certification
04:05:18.060 --> 04:05:20.330
that yes, these, you know, the plan.
04:05:20.330 --> 04:05:22.180
This makes sense
it's more than a tarp
04:05:22.180 --> 04:05:23.840
over pollical would.
04:05:23.840 --> 04:05:24.673
Correct.
04:05:25.750 --> 04:05:29.860
So it's their view
versus our engineer's view
04:05:29.860 --> 04:05:30.970
to be discussed.
04:05:30.970 --> 04:05:31.803
Correct.
04:05:34.400 --> 04:05:37.770
So what do you, in
terms of the inspection plan
04:05:37.770 --> 04:05:39.990
that you currently have right now,
04:05:39.990 --> 04:05:42.390
I know that right now the ERCOT board
04:05:42.390 --> 04:05:47.390
is going to be considering
funding for potentially hiring
04:05:47.410 --> 04:05:51.430
a contractor to help
with the inspections.
04:05:51.430 --> 04:05:53.290
'Cause I do think that
there probably needs
04:05:53.290 --> 04:05:58.290
to be a more robust inspection
process before the winter,
04:05:59.620 --> 04:06:01.213
whenever that window is,
04:06:03.270 --> 04:06:05.670
that goes above it a
little bit above and beyond
04:06:06.710 --> 04:06:10.233
inspecting plants that
had issues in 2021,
04:06:11.220 --> 04:06:12.670
although a lot of them did.
04:06:12.670 --> 04:06:14.260
So, I mean, there's gonna be,
04:06:14.260 --> 04:06:18.800
I think by its very own I guess result
04:06:18.800 --> 04:06:21.460
would require more robust inspections,
04:06:21.460 --> 04:06:24.120
but so you're applying to this anyway.
04:06:24.120 --> 04:06:29.120
So in terms of having a
phase one standard baseline
04:06:30.660 --> 04:06:34.940
to comply with the
statute and attestations
04:06:34.940 --> 04:06:37.960
from the generation companies saying,
04:06:37.960 --> 04:06:38.900
we're gonna do X,
04:06:38.900 --> 04:06:42.170
that gives you sort of a plan or a focus
04:06:42.170 --> 04:06:43.860
on what you're going to go inspect.
04:06:43.860 --> 04:06:45.470
I mean, nothing's really changing,
04:06:45.470 --> 04:06:48.000
you're just getting more
guidance on what to look for,
04:06:48.000 --> 04:06:50.010
and maybe a little bit more.
04:06:50.010 --> 04:06:51.640
It's kinda what I'm thinking.
04:06:51.640 --> 04:06:53.020
If I may Commissioner,
04:06:53.020 --> 04:06:55.620
I think what ERCOT would
be gaining from this is,
04:06:55.620 --> 04:06:58.260
regulatory authority.
04:06:58.260 --> 04:07:02.800
And right now generators
have to provide an attestation
04:07:02.800 --> 04:07:05.820
that they've thought
about preparing their plants.
04:07:05.820 --> 04:07:08.290
And that was something that was adopted
04:07:08.290 --> 04:07:11.440
through the protocols
back after the 2011 event.
04:07:11.440 --> 04:07:14.463
But there's no enforcement
authority behind that.
04:07:15.440 --> 04:07:17.270
So this time there would
be enforcement authority.
04:07:17.270 --> 04:07:18.160
And I think we're gonna need
04:07:18.160 --> 04:07:19.670
a whole lot more robust information,
04:07:19.670 --> 04:07:23.000
because back in 2011
when the event happened
04:07:23.000 --> 04:07:26.353
and there was some
weatherization evaluation done,
04:07:27.980 --> 04:07:30.650
that was not enough for the public.
04:07:30.650 --> 04:07:31.900
And there was a lot of criticism
04:07:31.900 --> 04:07:34.880
of what was done back then
following the February, 2011,
04:07:34.880 --> 04:07:36.700
I don't wanna end up there.
04:07:36.700 --> 04:07:39.040
We need more than
just, oh, attestations.
04:07:39.040 --> 04:07:42.540
We need like a detailed plan
of what they're planning to do,
04:07:42.540 --> 04:07:43.530
and maybe a little bit more,
04:07:43.530 --> 04:07:46.800
because I don't want
as regulators for us
04:07:46.800 --> 04:07:49.720
to look like we didn't do
enough on this phase one.
04:07:49.720 --> 04:07:54.720
And did the bare minimum
and be subjected to criticism
04:07:55.800 --> 04:07:57.330
for not taking enough action
04:07:57.330 --> 04:08:00.393
like what happened after February, 2011.
04:08:01.760 --> 04:08:04.980
Well, I'm less worried
about the criticism
04:08:04.980 --> 04:08:08.680
than I am about the results
in the next winter event,
04:08:08.680 --> 04:08:10.860
but it's a careful balance
between (indistinct)
04:08:10.860 --> 04:08:14.810
and our coverage and
going too far too fast.
04:08:14.810 --> 04:08:18.410
Like you pointed out before
we have robust weather study
04:08:18.410 --> 04:08:23.410
before we have all of
the information we need
04:08:23.440 --> 04:08:28.440
to make a much more
granular precise set of rules.
04:08:28.450 --> 04:08:31.023
But if we're gonna
stagger the implementation,
04:08:32.080 --> 04:08:35.660
I think the concept you
all have been exploring
04:08:35.660 --> 04:08:37.960
is starting with
exactly that baby steps,
04:08:37.960 --> 04:08:40.280
but more than we've got now,
04:08:40.280 --> 04:08:45.280
but not all the way to the
most robust version possible,
04:08:45.760 --> 04:08:47.380
'cause we don't have enough information.
04:08:47.380 --> 04:08:48.213
Right?
04:08:48.213 --> 04:08:49.046
Right.
04:08:49.046 --> 04:08:50.030
So.
04:08:50.030 --> 04:08:50.863
Yeah, yeah.
04:08:50.863 --> 04:08:51.696
And to be fair.
04:08:51.696 --> 04:08:52.529
You did to your point,
04:08:52.529 --> 04:08:54.210
I think that's why 2011
is that great watermark.
04:08:54.210 --> 04:08:56.840
We had a report on it,
NERC had a report on it,
04:08:56.840 --> 04:08:59.980
everybody under the sun from
the legislature to the industry
04:08:59.980 --> 04:09:02.770
knew what was wrong
with individual facilities.
04:09:02.770 --> 04:09:05.950
And if they haven't come up
to that standard since 2011,
04:09:05.950 --> 04:09:08.690
10 years later, a decade to get there.
04:09:08.690 --> 04:09:11.327
And then we now have,
04:09:11.327 --> 04:09:14.330
and that poses are
the letter of the law.
04:09:14.330 --> 04:09:16.790
We have something that
they are held accountable to,
04:09:16.790 --> 04:09:19.300
and then the enforcement standard.
04:09:19.300 --> 04:09:22.624
So that's gonna be a
sea change in six months
04:09:22.624 --> 04:09:24.480
and at least we have that available.
04:09:24.480 --> 04:09:26.840
And to be fair I
mean, to your point,
04:09:26.840 --> 04:09:28.390
it's not just about criticism,
04:09:28.390 --> 04:09:30.070
it's about ensuring reliability.
04:09:30.070 --> 04:09:33.330
And the fact is those
steps were not taken.
04:09:33.330 --> 04:09:34.330
Right.
04:09:34.330 --> 04:09:35.163
And so we had a
reliability problem.
04:09:35.163 --> 04:09:36.172
Exactly.
04:09:36.172 --> 04:09:37.980
But we need to be
cognizant of the fact
04:09:38.991 --> 04:09:40.170
that those facts happen
in the background.
04:09:40.170 --> 04:09:41.179
Yeah.
04:09:41.179 --> 04:09:42.012
We'll point it out as well.
04:09:42.012 --> 04:09:42.845
So perhaps we can do this,
04:09:42.845 --> 04:09:45.910
perhaps we can, as
we think about crafting
04:09:45.910 --> 04:09:47.050
this new language.
04:09:47.050 --> 04:09:49.423
We think about what broke during URI.
04:09:50.290 --> 04:09:52.555
We look at the quanta report
04:09:52.555 --> 04:09:56.830
that was released in
the aftermath of 2011,
04:09:56.830 --> 04:09:58.760
pull out some specific recommendations
04:09:58.760 --> 04:10:00.423
that were included in there,
04:10:02.360 --> 04:10:06.200
and think about what
broke during 2011 event
04:10:06.200 --> 04:10:10.250
and asked the generators
to come up with a plan
04:10:10.250 --> 04:10:12.820
that addresses each of those things,
04:10:12.820 --> 04:10:17.820
submit them presumably to
ERCOT with an attestation
04:10:18.360 --> 04:10:20.210
that they're gonna take
care of these things,
04:10:20.210 --> 04:10:22.400
or they have taken care of these things.
04:10:22.400 --> 04:10:25.478
And then we can use that on the backend
04:10:25.478 --> 04:10:30.478
if there are performance
issues during winter next year.
04:10:31.713 --> 04:10:33.720
And I wanna be very sensitive
about performance issues
04:10:33.720 --> 04:10:35.670
because I don't want it to come off
04:10:35.670 --> 04:10:39.180
that we're trying to require generators
04:10:39.180 --> 04:10:42.210
to produce electrons a
hundred percent of the time
04:10:42.210 --> 04:10:47.210
and things break for
despite your best efforts,
04:10:47.550 --> 04:10:50.800
but we can still use that plan as a way
04:10:50.800 --> 04:10:54.145
to assess performance
against what they said
04:10:54.145 --> 04:10:55.533
that they were gonna do.
04:10:59.120 --> 04:11:04.120
Again, start with a
baseline for an accelerated
04:11:04.680 --> 04:11:07.633
or at least consider
we can consider it the,
04:11:11.640 --> 04:11:13.223
I guess, two versions.
04:11:16.080 --> 04:11:17.873
Phase one early implementation,
04:11:18.849 --> 04:11:21.360
acute problems identified in February
04:11:21.360 --> 04:11:25.760
plus core principles
of the 2011 standards
04:11:25.760 --> 04:11:30.560
to be plans plus at attestation
of implementation of plans
04:11:30.560 --> 04:11:33.602
with spot slash audit with enforcement
04:11:33.602 --> 04:11:37.363
and penalty power behind it.
04:11:37.363 --> 04:11:38.610
(indistinct) is that?
04:11:38.610 --> 04:11:39.443
Yes, sir.
04:11:39.443 --> 04:11:40.770
Broadly tracking?
04:11:40.770 --> 04:11:41.603
Yes.
04:11:44.860 --> 04:11:49.860
So like I would almost
call that a separate exercise
04:11:50.930 --> 04:11:54.460
from what this is phase two.
04:11:54.460 --> 04:11:55.293
Yes.
04:11:55.293 --> 04:12:00.293
That would be something
to be can developed,
04:12:00.700 --> 04:12:04.400
considered and ruled on quickly
04:12:04.400 --> 04:12:08.023
if we want it to make a
difference for this winter.
04:12:10.710 --> 04:12:11.543
Any other?
04:12:13.230 --> 04:12:16.500
I'm gonna phone a
friend and ask my director
04:12:16.500 --> 04:12:19.060
of engineering to come up
because he's got something
04:12:19.060 --> 04:12:22.003
that he wants to make
sure that we get out there.
04:12:25.330 --> 04:12:28.498
This audience is getting to
be a dangerous place to sit.
04:12:28.498 --> 04:12:31.250
(laughs)
04:12:31.250 --> 04:12:33.210
Albert Esser,
Director engineering.
04:12:33.210 --> 04:12:34.710
Just a clarification,
04:12:34.710 --> 04:12:37.340
when you talk about 2011 standards,
04:12:37.340 --> 04:12:39.516
what exactly do you mean?
04:12:39.516 --> 04:12:42.710
Is that the temperatures,
the duration, the precipitation,
04:12:42.710 --> 04:12:47.500
or is it what was found
in the Quanto report
04:12:47.500 --> 04:12:49.370
which has not been fixed?
04:12:49.370 --> 04:12:51.940
You know, just thought
we'd get a clear understanding
04:12:51.940 --> 04:12:53.180
what you mean by standards.
04:12:53.180 --> 04:12:55.740
Well, since the Quanto
report was issued,
04:12:55.740 --> 04:12:58.822
it identified deficiencies
across the board
04:12:58.822 --> 04:13:01.010
within the types of units.
04:13:01.010 --> 04:13:04.190
And then that was
highlighted by the legislature
04:13:04.190 --> 04:13:05.770
as why hasn't this been fixed?
04:13:05.770 --> 04:13:06.740
Okay.
04:13:06.740 --> 04:13:07.573
And then they
passed the bill telling us,
04:13:07.573 --> 04:13:09.615
so yeah, I'd say,
that's why you're there.
04:13:09.615 --> 04:13:12.033
So the quanto is what
we look at as a baseline
04:13:12.033 --> 04:13:13.380
and try to implement--
04:13:13.380 --> 04:13:14.670
Those senators
were quite adamant.
04:13:14.670 --> 04:13:15.923
That was.
04:13:15.923 --> 04:13:17.140
That was the question.
04:13:17.140 --> 04:13:17.973
Thank you.
04:13:21.590 --> 04:13:22.423
Any other?
04:13:23.689 --> 04:13:25.263
Barksdale, I would
encourage you to,
04:13:26.154 --> 04:13:29.780
when you're thinking
about those 2011 standards
04:13:29.780 --> 04:13:31.650
to also look at the performance
04:13:31.650 --> 04:13:34.603
that occurred in 2014 and 2018,
04:13:37.270 --> 04:13:41.023
because what we saw was an
application of those standards.
04:13:42.050 --> 04:13:44.180
We saw people make progress,
04:13:44.180 --> 04:13:48.910
weatherizing their plants
based on what happened in 2011,
04:13:48.910 --> 04:13:53.400
we saw improved
performance in 2014 and 2018
04:13:53.400 --> 04:13:56.133
in conditions that were
comparable to 2011.
04:13:57.420 --> 04:13:59.183
And then we saw 2021 happen.
04:14:01.220 --> 04:14:05.440
And even though we have
survived 2014 and 2018,
04:14:05.440 --> 04:14:09.520
2021 we saw what happened,
04:14:09.520 --> 04:14:12.920
severe consequences
of that colder weather.
04:14:12.920 --> 04:14:15.910
And so I think it's a hard thing
04:14:15.910 --> 04:14:18.370
to have to take into account here,
04:14:18.370 --> 04:14:21.980
but we did see improvement from 2011.
04:14:21.980 --> 04:14:25.400
And I think I've shared some
data with you guys in the past
04:14:25.400 --> 04:14:30.400
on the number of generator outages
04:14:30.800 --> 04:14:34.290
and how they decreased in 2014 and 2018
04:14:35.300 --> 04:14:36.810
during comparable weather.
04:14:36.810 --> 04:14:40.410
And so it's just data points
04:14:40.410 --> 04:14:43.210
that ought to be taken
into consideration.
04:14:43.210 --> 04:14:44.043
Absolutely.
04:14:44.043 --> 04:14:44.876
And I'd agree with that.
04:14:44.876 --> 04:14:46.370
And I think it did happen.
04:14:46.370 --> 04:14:50.277
It's just we didn't have
anything on paper after that.
04:14:50.277 --> 04:14:53.444
And once something is on
paper that has the force of law,
04:14:53.444 --> 04:14:57.310
(clicks) it's a little bit
different animal, so.
04:14:57.310 --> 04:14:59.480
Well, what is it fair to say?
04:14:59.480 --> 04:15:02.240
For the improvement that you're speaking
04:15:02.240 --> 04:15:06.150
or referencing definitely
occurred we've seen the data.
04:15:06.150 --> 04:15:09.503
Is it fair to say it wasn't
universal across the fleet?
04:15:10.800 --> 04:15:12.210
I think that's
fair to say, yeah.
04:15:12.210 --> 04:15:14.740
I think we've talked
about some stragglers,
04:15:14.740 --> 04:15:17.543
some trailers that probably did happen.
04:15:19.640 --> 04:15:23.600
Okay, so there's still
room for progress then.
04:15:23.600 --> 04:15:25.020
Right.
04:15:25.020 --> 04:15:28.143
And fortifying the fleet.
04:15:30.180 --> 04:15:33.040
What about the
transmission provider?
04:15:33.040 --> 04:15:36.760
The TSPs, I guess,
how would that they fit
04:15:36.760 --> 04:15:38.273
into this phased approach?
04:15:39.250 --> 04:15:40.633
That's a good question.
04:15:41.830 --> 04:15:43.780
About five minutes ago,
I was thinking in my head
04:15:43.780 --> 04:15:48.780
that we would probably pull
them out of this crawl stage.
04:15:49.110 --> 04:15:52.610
However, I'm remembering
the statute does require
04:15:52.610 --> 04:15:55.650
standards for them by the
implementation deadline
04:15:55.650 --> 04:15:57.450
of the end of November.
04:15:57.450 --> 04:16:01.360
And so I think I personally
wanna huddle with my team
04:16:01.360 --> 04:16:02.910
and figure out what that means?
04:16:06.040 --> 04:16:10.990
Presumably that was addressed
in the work done after 2011.
04:16:12.827 --> 04:16:15.030
So there should be a reference point
04:16:15.030 --> 04:16:20.030
or a similar baseline as
generation from the 2011 event.
04:16:26.520 --> 04:16:28.940
Yeah, and I would
say kinda looking at 2021
04:16:28.940 --> 04:16:31.033
too a little bit, just
because I don't remember
04:16:31.033 --> 04:16:33.350
what happened from a
transmission service provider
04:16:33.350 --> 04:16:34.580
perspective from 2011.
04:16:34.580 --> 04:16:37.920
I mostly remember
the generation impacts,
04:16:37.920 --> 04:16:41.550
but if there was anything
from 2011 and 2021
04:16:41.550 --> 04:16:43.550
and then standard good utility practice,
04:16:43.550 --> 04:16:46.390
you know, best practices
and lessons learned.
04:16:46.390 --> 04:16:51.173
I think maybe that could
serve as a robust baseline.
04:16:51.173 --> 04:16:52.040
And I don't know if there's anything
04:16:52.040 --> 04:16:54.323
from the cold weather
standards or anything
04:16:54.323 --> 04:16:55.156
that could be cherry picked,
04:16:55.156 --> 04:16:57.253
but just some kind
of a similar baseline.
04:16:58.300 --> 04:16:59.592
Come on up, Liz.
04:16:59.592 --> 04:17:01.840
(laughs)
04:17:01.840 --> 04:17:04.660
Yeah, I think before
Liz puts me to shame
04:17:04.660 --> 04:17:06.543
with her breadth of knowledge,
04:17:09.240 --> 04:17:12.895
what I believe that I
know from 2021 is that,
04:17:12.895 --> 04:17:16.490
the transmission system as
a whole performed very well.
04:17:16.490 --> 04:17:19.830
There were specific
components inside substations
04:17:21.010 --> 04:17:22.660
that had some problems,
04:17:22.660 --> 04:17:27.660
but by and large, the
standards that the TSPs follow
04:17:27.810 --> 04:17:30.580
from the National
Electric Safety Code, IEEE
04:17:31.818 --> 04:17:35.880
and some of the other ANSI
based codes have served well,
04:17:36.800 --> 04:17:38.423
but Liz will correct me.
04:17:40.250 --> 04:17:41.450
Actually, I'm
gonna agree with you
04:17:41.450 --> 04:17:44.110
and then offer one
other piece of information.
04:17:44.110 --> 04:17:46.033
Liz Jones, on behalf of Oncor.
04:17:47.000 --> 04:17:50.000
There were recommendations directed
04:17:50.000 --> 04:17:55.000
to the transmission providers
in the FERC, NERC 2011 report.
04:17:55.140 --> 04:17:59.110
And so as you're thinking
about sort of a parallel construct
04:17:59.110 --> 04:18:02.450
for the generators and for
the transmission providers,
04:18:02.450 --> 04:18:05.123
that may be the corollary
that you could use.
04:18:06.788 --> 04:18:07.621
(clears throat)
04:18:07.621 --> 04:18:10.370
What about attestation
similar to what we're requiring
04:18:10.370 --> 04:18:11.203
from the generator?
04:18:11.203 --> 04:18:12.830
So like anything that you can,
04:18:12.830 --> 04:18:14.790
maybe the TSP's I know
you're only speaking on behalf
04:18:14.790 --> 04:18:15.623
of Oncor,
04:18:15.623 --> 04:18:18.600
but maybe we can also
require the same from the TSPs
04:18:18.600 --> 04:18:20.800
as to what steps they've
taken from lessons
04:18:20.800 --> 04:18:24.860
from 2021, 2011 or 2021, 2011.
04:18:24.860 --> 04:18:26.590
The same framework makes sense.
04:18:26.590 --> 04:18:27.730
Yeah.
04:18:27.730 --> 04:18:31.083
Yes, on behalf of Oncor.
04:18:31.083 --> 04:18:32.534
(laughs)
04:18:32.534 --> 04:18:33.430
With..
04:18:33.430 --> 04:18:34.360
I don't know what's back there.
04:18:34.360 --> 04:18:36.253
(laughs)
04:18:36.253 --> 04:18:38.278
Based on if you've
any difference of opinion.
04:18:38.278 --> 04:18:40.350
(laughs)
04:18:40.350 --> 04:18:44.130
And thinking through all
the moving pieces of this,
04:18:44.130 --> 04:18:46.650
there's not only a
cost of implementation,
04:18:46.650 --> 04:18:48.823
there's costs of
reporting and compliance.
04:18:51.060 --> 04:18:54.600
Is that something just
from y'all's perspective?
04:18:54.600 --> 04:18:57.080
Is that something that is manageable?
04:18:59.230 --> 04:19:01.120
I think generally, yes.
04:19:01.120 --> 04:19:04.640
But I say that because
as a consequence of 2011
04:19:04.640 --> 04:19:06.723
and our other obligations,
04:19:07.620 --> 04:19:09.060
this is what we do,
04:19:09.060 --> 04:19:12.380
and that the bulk of
our seasonal readiness
04:19:12.380 --> 04:19:15.060
is O and M preparedness.
04:19:15.060 --> 04:19:19.570
And you see significantly
less acquisition of equipment
04:19:19.570 --> 04:19:21.533
than perhaps Calpine had described.
04:19:23.950 --> 04:19:24.783
Thank you.
04:19:26.010 --> 04:19:27.110
Anything else for Liz?
04:19:28.550 --> 04:19:29.569
Appreciate it.
04:19:29.569 --> 04:19:30.569
Thank you.
04:19:34.710 --> 04:19:36.620
All right, Barksdale,
04:19:36.620 --> 04:19:41.620
we've got a concept
regarding a phase one
04:19:43.560 --> 04:19:46.370
accelerated implement
or accelerated direction
04:19:48.840 --> 04:19:51.830
for discussion that another meeting
04:19:51.830 --> 04:19:54.240
or any other thoughts on pros and cons
04:19:54.240 --> 04:19:59.240
of this staggered approach
and or additional questions
04:20:02.050 --> 04:20:07.050
you may have for clarification for staff
04:20:08.050 --> 04:20:11.433
to look at the phase one approach?
04:20:12.340 --> 04:20:16.980
I think we're clear on
this crawl, walk, run idea
04:20:16.980 --> 04:20:19.760
that you all have suggested.
04:20:19.760 --> 04:20:22.100
I know we will continue
to work on the running part
04:20:22.100 --> 04:20:24.300
while we're working
on crawling and walking,
04:20:25.345 --> 04:20:28.160
'cause we can't do it sequentially,
04:20:28.160 --> 04:20:32.558
we have to do it side by side.
04:20:32.558 --> 04:20:34.730
So rest assured we will continue to work
04:20:34.730 --> 04:20:37.530
on this weather study idea and assuming
04:20:37.530 --> 04:20:40.000
that this is a concept
that in the long run,
04:20:40.000 --> 04:20:43.110
you all support and
would like us to pursue,
04:20:43.110 --> 04:20:45.730
then we will continue
moving as quickly towards
04:20:45.730 --> 04:20:50.140
that as possible and
get you some language
04:20:50.140 --> 04:20:52.040
on the crawl part.
04:20:52.040 --> 04:20:53.090
As soon as we can.
04:20:53.090 --> 04:20:56.470
Do we have agreement
on shedding more light
04:20:56.470 --> 04:20:57.520
on the weather study?
04:20:58.750 --> 04:21:01.030
Maybe having the draft filed,
04:21:01.030 --> 04:21:03.000
or, you know, I know that's something
04:21:03.000 --> 04:21:05.730
I suggested in terms of weather studies
04:21:05.730 --> 04:21:09.500
sort of driving the second
round phase two standards.
04:21:09.500 --> 04:21:11.210
And it's very important.
04:21:11.210 --> 04:21:13.100
And I think there's been
a lot of interest in knowing,
04:21:13.100 --> 04:21:15.607
well, what's going into
it and what's going on,
04:21:15.607 --> 04:21:18.050
are the right resources
being taken into account?
04:21:18.050 --> 04:21:21.270
Is there a possibility to
maybe shed a little bit more light
04:21:21.270 --> 04:21:26.160
on that study in terms of
maybe having the final draft
04:21:26.160 --> 04:21:28.550
or a scoping document or
something filed in the project
04:21:28.550 --> 04:21:30.860
so stakeholders can get that visibility
04:21:30.860 --> 04:21:35.000
and maybe offer suggestions
to ERCOT in there,
04:21:35.000 --> 04:21:36.930
something like that along those lines?
04:21:36.930 --> 04:21:39.460
I'm sure we could
provide for that.
04:21:39.460 --> 04:21:41.607
The only question that I have for ERCOT
04:21:41.607 --> 04:21:43.590
and I'll take this back to Chris Coleman
04:21:43.590 --> 04:21:47.953
is the proprietary nature
of the actual data itself.
04:21:49.500 --> 04:21:53.300
But so before I commit him to anything
04:21:53.300 --> 04:21:54.660
I'd like to ask him about something.
04:21:54.660 --> 04:21:57.120
So basically a clarification
on methodology, right?
04:21:57.120 --> 04:21:59.049
Is what we would like
to... Yeah.
04:21:59.049 --> 04:21:59.882
We would like to...
04:21:59.882 --> 04:22:00.715
Yes.
04:22:00.715 --> 04:22:02.010
And theoretically, as
long as he doesn't provide
04:22:02.010 --> 04:22:03.325
the data points which is proprietary
04:22:03.325 --> 04:22:05.610
and somebody is buying it,
04:22:05.610 --> 04:22:09.370
but methodology that seems
reasonable to explain it.
04:22:09.370 --> 04:22:14.370
Well, is it methodology
and or scoping timeline
04:22:14.500 --> 04:22:17.630
and then methodology
at different milestones,
04:22:17.630 --> 04:22:22.371
depth of analysis and
identification of deliverables?
04:22:22.371 --> 04:22:23.630
Yeah, exactly.
04:22:23.630 --> 04:22:24.620
Yeah.
04:22:24.620 --> 04:22:25.859
I asked which one?
04:22:25.859 --> 04:22:26.692
All of them?
Well, all of them.
04:22:26.692 --> 04:22:27.880
(laughs)
04:22:27.880 --> 04:22:28.713
All of them, I like it all.
04:22:28.713 --> 04:22:29.830
I can't sit (indistinct).
04:22:29.830 --> 04:22:30.950
Well, yeah.
04:22:30.950 --> 04:22:31.783
Well, let's see what you said
04:22:31.783 --> 04:22:33.540
is like kind of a scoping document.
04:22:33.540 --> 04:22:37.940
You know, what the
scope is of the study?
04:22:37.940 --> 04:22:40.070
Maybe general sources
that are being used,
04:22:40.070 --> 04:22:41.351
the methodology, deliverables,
04:22:41.351 --> 04:22:43.280
you know, anything that we can provide
04:22:43.280 --> 04:22:45.374
that's not confidential.
04:22:45.374 --> 04:22:47.800
I think it'd be helpful to
shed a little bit more light.
04:22:47.800 --> 04:22:50.262
And if you all are
comfortable with that,
04:22:50.262 --> 04:22:51.620
I think that would help.
04:22:51.620 --> 04:22:55.770
Okay, so you wanna ask Chris?
04:22:55.770 --> 04:22:56.740
We will.
04:22:56.740 --> 04:23:01.103
Okay, I just ask them
to follow the document
04:23:02.460 --> 04:23:07.200
on the project number
with a scoping document
04:23:07.200 --> 04:23:12.200
with timeline, methodology used,
04:23:13.770 --> 04:23:17.327
deliverables expected and inputs.
04:23:20.310 --> 04:23:21.143
Sources.
04:23:22.080 --> 04:23:27.080
Even if in non-proprietary
or confidential types of data,
04:23:29.810 --> 04:23:34.220
inputs, sources of data,
non-proprietary sources of data,
04:23:34.220 --> 04:23:36.690
expected outputs, timeline,
04:23:36.690 --> 04:23:41.690
and how that will inform
the phase two final.
04:23:46.640 --> 04:23:49.719
Sounds like he needs
to write down his plan.
04:23:49.719 --> 04:23:50.552
(laughs)
04:23:50.552 --> 04:23:51.385
There you go.
04:23:51.385 --> 04:23:52.218
Yeah.
04:23:52.218 --> 04:23:53.051
Next, we'll do that.
04:23:53.051 --> 04:23:54.410
But we will hold them
to the performance
04:23:54.410 --> 04:23:55.313
of that plan, sir.
04:23:56.369 --> 04:23:58.270
Okay, so that's item one.
04:23:58.270 --> 04:24:02.580
Yeah, and because
if you visit with Chris
04:24:02.580 --> 04:24:05.250
and he a document,
maybe he can provide it to us
04:24:05.250 --> 04:24:07.510
and see if that's all the information
04:24:07.510 --> 04:24:10.020
that we want out of this discussion.
04:24:10.020 --> 04:24:11.686
And if it is, he goes
ahead and filed it,
04:24:11.686 --> 04:24:12.970
and we want a little
bit more information.
04:24:12.970 --> 04:24:15.794
We can give him input
and then he can follow it.
04:24:15.794 --> 04:24:20.020
All right, so that's deliverable
one as a result of this.
04:24:20.020 --> 04:24:23.080
The second one we're going
to while continuing to work
04:24:23.080 --> 04:24:28.060
on the straw man now characterized
04:24:29.410 --> 04:24:34.410
as the second and final
phase of weatherization.
04:24:35.010 --> 04:24:38.700
Timeline, TBD, depending
on what we learned
04:24:38.700 --> 04:24:39.900
in the scoping document.
04:24:41.000 --> 04:24:46.000
In the meantime, between now
and when we were considering
04:24:46.143 --> 04:24:48.182
the PFE was the 26th?
04:24:48.182 --> 04:24:49.957
28th is what I have in my head.
04:24:49.957 --> 04:24:51.957
We're now on the 28th,
04:24:53.560 --> 04:24:56.430
a proposal for a phase one
04:24:56.430 --> 04:25:00.550
immediate action weatherization standard
04:25:00.550 --> 04:25:03.650
based on both regeneration
and transmission
04:25:03.650 --> 04:25:07.670
based on the 2011 the
results of the core principles
04:25:07.670 --> 04:25:12.670
of the 2011 NERC guidance and reports.
04:25:15.170 --> 04:25:20.170
Plus a draft proposal
of recording generators
04:25:24.920 --> 04:25:29.920
to identify acute problems
from this past winter.
04:25:31.590 --> 04:25:35.170
Identify how those acute
problems can be mitigated
04:25:35.170 --> 04:25:39.760
or should be mitigated and
attestation done by December 1st
04:25:40.606 --> 04:25:41.500
those problems specific problems
04:25:41.500 --> 04:25:45.960
from this winter event will be mitigated
04:25:45.960 --> 04:25:47.600
by December 1st, 2021.
04:25:47.600 --> 04:25:48.433
Yes.
04:25:50.250 --> 04:25:54.010
Anything else you need
from us in terms of deliverables,
04:25:54.010 --> 04:25:54.843
specifics?
04:25:56.160 --> 04:25:56.993
I think we're good, sir.
04:25:56.993 --> 04:25:57.826
Thank you.
04:26:00.250 --> 04:26:02.640
Anything else on
this topic or is that?
04:26:02.640 --> 04:26:03.949
Please no.
04:26:03.949 --> 04:26:05.830
(laughs)
04:26:05.830 --> 04:26:06.747
Fair enough.
04:26:08.550 --> 04:26:09.769
Thank you for all your work.
04:26:09.769 --> 04:26:11.220
I gotta go ahead
to the pink building.
04:26:11.220 --> 04:26:13.286
I think you better
get over there.
04:26:13.286 --> 04:26:15.776
(laughs)
04:26:15.776 --> 04:26:16.609
You're in demand.
04:26:16.609 --> 04:26:19.028
We'll give you a hall
pass easier than they will.
04:26:19.028 --> 04:26:19.861
Have fun.
04:26:19.861 --> 04:26:20.694
Thank you.
04:26:20.694 --> 04:26:21.575
All right, see you later.
04:26:21.575 --> 04:26:22.408
Take care.
04:26:22.408 --> 04:26:23.241
Thank you, Commissioner.
04:26:24.550 --> 04:26:26.180
All right. Anything
else we need to?
04:26:26.180 --> 04:26:27.013
Yes, sir.
04:26:28.850 --> 04:26:29.803
Thanks, Barksdale.
04:26:31.390 --> 04:26:32.223
Thank you all.
04:26:33.140 --> 04:26:34.890
That's Will
McAdams (indistinct).
04:26:36.347 --> 04:26:38.373
I think as he (indistinct).
04:26:38.373 --> 04:26:40.833
I think Barksdale is
gonna go straight to running.
04:26:40.833 --> 04:26:42.860
(laughs)
04:26:42.860 --> 04:26:46.253
All right, that will cover
agenda item number 10.
04:26:47.600 --> 04:26:52.057
Don't have anything
for items 11 through 19.
04:26:52.057 --> 04:26:56.370
All right, we will
recess in closed session
04:26:56.370 --> 04:27:01.370
after having convened
a duly open meeting on,
04:27:04.180 --> 04:27:07.920
we will recess at 2:39
p.m on August 12th, 2021
04:27:07.920 --> 04:27:10.750
told a closed session
pursuant to Chapter 551
04:27:10.750 --> 04:27:15.750
of the texts government code
section 551 1071.5510.074
04:27:15.940 --> 04:27:18.433
and 5510.076.
04:27:20.060 --> 04:27:21.213
We'll be back shortly.
04:27:37.010 --> 04:27:40.790
For August 12th, 2021 is now reconvened.
04:27:40.790 --> 04:27:44.500
No action was taken
during executive session
04:27:44.500 --> 04:27:49.250
on any matters discussed
during the executive session.
04:27:49.250 --> 04:27:50.430
Having no further business this meeting
04:27:50.430 --> 04:27:53.700
of the Public Utility
Commission of Texas
04:27:53.700 --> 04:27:54.780
is hereby adjourned.
04:27:54.780 --> 04:27:57.250
The time is 3:23 p.m.
04:27:57.250 --> 04:27:59.917
(gavel banging)